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SF Housing Madness. Tired of Screaming into the Void
2 Compzilla 27 6/10/2025, 10:51:44 PM
I've been casually monitoring the SF market, hoping logic might eventually return. Then I saw this:
579 Belvedere St., a top-floor condo (2BR/1BA, 930 sqft), just sold for $1.5M ($200k over asking). Meanwhile, better units with more space or an extra bath sit for weeks unsold.
Am I missing something? I know this area is desirable, but $1.5M for a 1-bath condo with no garage feels like 2021 energy. I need to vent!
Genuinely asking… are people still panic-buying? Is this just wealth inertia? Tech optimism? Delusion?
And yeah, I’m considering starting a “Wall of Shame” documenting these types of sales. Exhibit 1: this one.
The area where that property is located is really good, I live nearby. I think the property is worth that amount, since someone paid for it in a competitive market, that terrace with views of Sutro tower is spectacular. It’s also a good deal compared to its previous 2019 sale price ($1.4M), so it’s likely it was intentionally priced below market, the owner never meant to sell it at the asking price.
The city just has so, so many wealthy people, it’s difficult to comprehend. I, a complete nobody, know a lot of people in their 20s with $10M+ net worth. I’m in my 30s with a $6M liquid net worth and I’m the least successful in my peer group. It’s not unreasonable to drop that much in a beautiful city with such a scarce inventory. I don’t think that property value will significantly drop any time soon, if ever.
You are entitled to your own opinions and venting, but it might be more productive to just vote with your feet and leave, if this is too frustrating to deal with.
That said - relatively few participants are needed to price the market. This is the case for housing, stocks (where ETF-holder do not perform pricing), etc.
You are also likely not a nobody, not even in SF terms, with $6M liquid (assuming that there are quite a bit of investments on top of that). This would either require some successful speculative investments, top-level position in a successful company, inheritance, or successful exits. only inheritance with a long frugal lineage would yield a wealthy nobody.
The city has become a luxury good, a playground for the wealthy, not a place for the other classes to live. That’s the problem I’m trying to document, not just complain about. By the way, my daughter was born in this city. She just graduated from a very good school, but she will still never be able to afford this place as long as people like you maintain such a callous attitude about those who came before them.
I think you might be barking up the wrong tree here since I just rent a very modest apartment here and I’m not going to ever buy a property, nor vote against any housing shortage policies. My suggestion was purely practical.
But what would you expect exactly? The Bay Area has a massive marketing machine that screams to the world: “come here, make big bucks quickly and easily!”, which is true. Do you expect people not to take that bargain? People will always be looking to improve their situation, I came from the other side of the world just like many others.
It should be up to the government to either limit the inflow of people (via immigration control or other means), massively increase housing inventory or any other solution (I’m not an economist so I don’t know what’s the right one).
The condo you listed just sold for less than its last 2019 sale value when accounting for the massive inflation rate of these past 5 years. Thinking that it was a bubble-driven price is really not the right attitude, in my opinion. It’s how much it’s worth, and the market confirmed it.
You say I’m barking up the wrong tree, but the tree in question is a system that’s pricing out entire generations. Are we just supposed to shrug and say “that’s how it works”? This is capitalism I know, but that doesn't mean it's right.
The fact that something sells doesn’t mean it’s justified, it means the top 1% still has the liquidity to win every bidding war. That’s not “the market”... that’s an engineered, artificial scarcity propped up by investment groups, zoning failure, and captured politics.
My goal isn’t to change you... it’s to chronicle and question what's become accepted practice.
It's not just SF, it's California. Even going back 40 years, almost any place between Bay Area and San Diego that's within 50 miles of the ocean and is not rural[0] has been significantly more expensive than national average.
[0]unless it has an ocean view
There's something deeply wrong with that city, and everyone is a kind of in a trance trying to look away because they're all in the same political team or something like that. People suffer willingly as a form of weird self-sacrifice, so there is no accountability for the leadership that makes bad decision after bad decision (although of course they are making good decisions for the people who have the status and money).
So yes, pointing it out and exposing them is probably part of the solution but it would only be a small part. I think people need to break out of their unwavering loyalty in order to hold the system accountable for any change to happen.
I'm not about to move to Texas, but it is amazing how easily you can save a huge amount of money just by opening up to other locations that would make you happy.
Housing prices don't go down unless terrible thing happen; even then, sometimes they go up.
I didn't list the address of the person that outbid me on my last house purchase, though. Maybe you should consider not posting the addresses unless you have a good reason.
All the addresses I mention are public and already on Zillow/Redfin, along with all the other details. I’m not listing out bidder names or license plates... just citing public sales. It’s less about the buyer (who is not mentioned) and more about how far from fundamentals pricing has drifted.
Perhaps your wording wasn't well considered if you're not trying to shame buyers by listing addresses.
If the price is off-putting, let your senses guide you and be off-put by it and find somewhere that makes you excited and filled with a sense of opportunity for you -- and be sure it's well within your resources so it doesn't pinch immediately the second taxes go up, something leaks, another thing breaks, and the retaining wall needs work.
Home ownership costs so much more than you expect; buy well within your means if you want a happy home lifestyle.
I'm still not moving to Texas, but there are amazing places within a short drive of where you're considering that will free you from a lifestyle chained to a high paying job.
Cities are priced high for reasons. If you don’t need or can’t get what the cities provide, then it is definitely not worth it.
Go ask the buyers why they paid what they paid. Knock on doors, talk to realtors. All real estate is local.
Now predicting when the big one hits, good luck