That form of migration is happening all over the world right now.
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
I think the issue is for the animals that actually need a colder climate and/or rely on ice/snow cover - a warming world won't give them a new space to move to (yet).
giarc · 34m ago
One anecdote/example that has stuck with me is a heard of caribou in the Canadian north. In winter, they typically dig through the snow to find plants to eat. One year, with rising temperatures, a large area was left with a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. Precipitation was falling as rain (instead of snow) due to warmer temperatures, then freezing overnight creating this thick layer of ice. The caribou couldn't punch through the ice and ended up starving to death resulting in a mass die off.
nsavage · 18m ago
These are great examples, I have some more ancedotal evidence in Canada, such as the creeping north of the wine industry. Used to be just Point Pelee, then Niagara, and now even the Ottawa Valley has wineries.
aceofspades19 · 10m ago
There have been wineries in the Okanagan Valley in BC since the 1800s which is farther north than Ottawa. So I am not sure that's a particularly good example.
Scarblac · 15m ago
But not all species are mobile enough, and up north the winters are darker and the summers are lighter.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
ljf · 1h ago
I posted similar about UK waters the other day - it isn't as extreme here but it is noticeable, on Wednesday I completed a 2+ hour snorkel (with a wetsuit) when I'm often too cold after an hour.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
nQQKTz7dm27oZ · 10m ago
It's called.... wait for it.... summer.
iaw · 3m ago
Not sure I'm following. Is a 10 degree F increase in average summer temperatures over 25 years and a notably disrupted ecosystem 'summer'?
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.