That form of migration is happening all over the world right now.
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
Not doubting all this, but the possum thing is interesting.
They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
Scarblac · 1h ago
But not all species are mobile enough, and up north the winters are darker and the summers are lighter.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
mapt · 35m ago
In a time of rapid ecological change, highly mobile R-selected species have huge advantages.
ljf · 2h ago
I think the issue is for the animals that actually need a colder climate and/or rely on ice/snow cover - a warming world won't give them a new space to move to (yet).
giarc · 1h ago
One anecdote/example that has stuck with me is a heard of caribou in the Canadian north. In winter, they typically dig through the snow to find plants to eat. One year, with rising temperatures, a large area was left with a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. Precipitation was falling as rain (instead of snow) due to warmer temperatures, then freezing overnight creating this thick layer of ice. The caribou couldn't punch through the ice and ended up starving to death resulting in a mass die off.
nwatson · 35m ago
The ones that survived will have had more efficient metabolisms, or harder hooves that could break through the ice to get to the food, or could have learned a technique to cope. Hopefully their next generation will retain those traits or that culture to adapt.
mapt · 29m ago
Bigger animals have low numbers, larger ranges, less genetic variability, longer reproductive cycles, evolve much slower, and tend to go extinct much more reliably.
ambicapter · 23m ago
Yeah, animal species definitely successfully evolve over the course of a dozen years /s
mapt · 33m ago
We may lose the sea ice and continental glaciers, but we'll probably still retain some ice with the intersection of extreme altitudes and extreme latitudes, at least for our lifetimes. A place like Denali is a lifeboat.
nsavage · 1h ago
These are great examples, I have some more ancedotal evidence in Canada, such as the creeping north of the wine industry. Used to be just Point Pelee, then Niagara, and now even the Ottawa Valley has wineries.
aceofspades19 · 1h ago
There have been wineries in the Okanagan Valley in BC since the 1800s which is farther north than Ottawa. So I am not sure that's a particularly good example.
myth_drannon · 22m ago
The worst one is ticks and Lyme desease they carry
brabel · 3m ago
They are very common in Sweden, and have always been as far as I know. Are they supposed to be only common in Southern Europe??
hereonout2 · 19m ago
Don't know if birds count, but the egret population has exploded in the UK in the last 10 years.
There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
11235813213455 · 33m ago
No problem, we will build a cooling system for the Mediterranean sea, so that tourism can keep going safely, planes keep covering the sky, consumers keep over-consuming, sigh..
ljf · 2h ago
I posted similar about UK waters the other day - it isn't as extreme here but it is noticeable, on Wednesday I completed a 2+ hour snorkel (with a wetsuit) when I'm often too cold after an hour.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
Ericson2314 · 30m ago
Now we just need to see if air-conditioning also migrates north within Europe...
mytailorisrich · 28m ago
> "In the Red Sea, lionfish have predators. There are sharks and barracudas. Here, we have none of that."
They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...
As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...
They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...
As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).