When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich (2024)

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vismit2000 · 6h ago

This research describes an experiment called the "Crystal Ball Challenge," where participants attempted to predict market movements using advance access to the Wall Street Journal front page. This research evaluates whether having future news leads to successful trading, particularly by examining the importance of trade-sizing in investment outcomes. The findings indicate that while experienced traders performed significantly better, often due to their sensible risk management, less experienced participants frequently failed to profit despite their informational advantage. Ultimately, the source concludes that simply possessing future information is insufficient for financial success without a disciplined approach to investment sizing.

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When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich (2024)

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