What I put together circa 2010 is becoming more and more relevant:
https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html
"This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the end four major alternatives to mainstream economic practice (a basic income, a gift economy, stronger local subsistence economies, and resource-based planning). These alternatives could be used in combination to address what, even as far back as 1964, has been described as a breaking "income-through-jobs link". This link between jobs and income is breaking because of the declining value of most paid human labor relative to capital investments in automation and better design. Or, as is now the case, the value of paid human labor like at some newspapers or universities is also declining relative to the output of voluntary social networks such as for digital content production (like represented by this document). It is suggested that we will need to fundamentally reevaluate our economic theories and practices to adjust to these new realities emerging from exponential trends in technology and society."
fallinditch · 10h ago
Thanks for the link, I will dive into it later. Your description of local subsistence economies sounds like CED, community economic development, which I think could become extremely relevant.
We need to support and train and find the social entrepreneurs who will pioneer and grow these economic alternatives.
up-n-atom · 13h ago
It’s far more bleak, what about the jobs that aren’t given? And the big unknown? Is this all just a fad? Who’s next on the chopping block? Etc.
vunderba · 11h ago
I've said it before but one market that gets hit hard is the gig economy. The quality of generative AI may not be professional level, but it presents an easy drop-in replacement for one-off tasks that people previously outsourced to platforms like Fiverr (voiceovers, logo design, clip art, copy editing, translation, etc).
Velorivox · 8h ago
I believe there is nuance here. Something akin to the 'last mile' problem in delivery exists in these realms as well — AI can get close, and usually even complete the task when the artifact is not the end product — but in cases where one does care about selling the output to others, AI can result in more gig work, not less.
For example, many games that previously had no voice at all can now take a low-cost crack at voiceovers and, if it works, get professional VAs. Similarly people who would otherwise waste a long time in a back and forth can send AI generated concept art directly to a 3d modeler to model and rig. This reduces the risk of the transaction (will I get what I actually want?) significantly for these jobs.
However, as with any other technological leverage, it will exacerbate the power law distribution. Once you know what you're getting and that it will be worth it, you're much more likely to hire better professionals and pay them more.
squidbeak · 10h ago
Why would it be a fad if LLMs can do the work? They'll always be cheaper than human labor.
devoutsalsa · 8h ago
Would you hire someone known to be a hallucinating liar?
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 · 8h ago
It is not intended as a wordplay, but if they are delusional, are they really a liar? I think our language may need to evolve a little, because we keep building new language of llms by anthropomorphizing them. They hallucinate. They lie. It is thinking.
The worst part is that the imprecise language is here to stay the same way cyber came to mean something very different. So we are likely stuck with AI, hallucinations and all that silliness.
And besides, corps have a record of hiring liars, delusional people and anything in between so the analogy breaks on every level anyway.
ivape · 11h ago
"... what about the jobs that aren’t given?"
I guess I would have had to have paid a CGI studio to have made this for me once upon a time:
Or at least a freelancer. So that's one person that's out of a job. That took about 5 minutes with Google Whisk. In fact, if you know a thing or two about 3D/compositing, let me know how much time and effort this would have cost in 2018 please.
Aliabid94 · 7h ago
Was there any trade off using AI? Like limit in customizability due to using prompts that would not be the case if you hired someone.
Output video looks very cool
ivape · 6h ago
The trade off was I had to work with just describing it via text, but I suppose I would have had to describe it via text to a freelancer also and hope they get it. This will only get better is my point. I shouldn’t be able to get this kind of output without a professionals help.
sandspar · 5h ago
I suppose you could do a mirror article: "The millions of people who gained access to a graphic designer, audiobook narrator, copywriter, and illustrator - for $30 a month."
We need to support and train and find the social entrepreneurs who will pioneer and grow these economic alternatives.
For example, many games that previously had no voice at all can now take a low-cost crack at voiceovers and, if it works, get professional VAs. Similarly people who would otherwise waste a long time in a back and forth can send AI generated concept art directly to a 3d modeler to model and rig. This reduces the risk of the transaction (will I get what I actually want?) significantly for these jobs.
However, as with any other technological leverage, it will exacerbate the power law distribution. Once you know what you're getting and that it will be worth it, you're much more likely to hire better professionals and pay them more.
The worst part is that the imprecise language is here to stay the same way cyber came to mean something very different. So we are likely stuck with AI, hallucinations and all that silliness.
And besides, corps have a record of hiring liars, delusional people and anything in between so the analogy breaks on every level anyway.
I guess I would have had to have paid a CGI studio to have made this for me once upon a time:
https://streamable.com/xsiip5
Or at least a freelancer. So that's one person that's out of a job. That took about 5 minutes with Google Whisk. In fact, if you know a thing or two about 3D/compositing, let me know how much time and effort this would have cost in 2018 please.
Output video looks very cool