What's working for YC companies since the AI boom

99 jseidel 54 5/30/2025, 2:24:36 PM jamesin.substack.com ↗

Comments (54)

cushychicken · 26m ago
zero… hardware startups in the Series A data

I have 15 years of hardware development experience and I would stay far, far away from anyone in the VC space.

I simply don’t believe that anyone in VC is capable of aligning their own incentives to the timescale that a hardware based business requires to show a return.

bgnn · 6m ago
I second this. I've worked for several early stage HW start-ups (ASIC development). VC backed ones ended up in a weird state of not being able to move from proof of concept to production because at that point the VCs were out of patience and wanted returns for their money. Having spent 10s if millions and now, 2-3 years later, requiring even more didn't align with what they were used to. This ended badly for these companies, all with great potential. Lucky ones could get acquired for a meaningful amount.

Bootstrapped companies were much better but they lacked the capital to develop their own products, so they were often reliant on one big customer. Growth was slow but more organic.

ai-christianson · 12m ago
But hardware is super capital intensive, right? So the right kind of investor could add significant value if they were aligned.
bgnn · 4m ago
That's often potential customers. It's common to have other HW companies invest in HW start ups. Unfortunately there are not many good VCs for HW development. Even the ones marketing themselves as much don't like the meager returns in 5 to 10 years.
A_D_E_P_T · 4h ago
Do "AI Startups" even make sense?

There appears to be a pattern. Unmet need is identified: "I want ChatGPT -- but able to read PDFs" or "I want ChatGPT -- but able to do research and produce lengthy reports." Startup gets funding for this and, if they're lucky, releases a rough beta that leans heavily on the OpenAI API. Two months later OpenAI launches a better, much more polished and seamless version, which is integrated into ChatGPT itself.

I had briefly considered forming a Legal AI startup (going so far as to download the fulltext of every legal ruling ever made in the US -- something like 400GB) but then o3/DeepResearch got so good that it became apparent that there'd be little point.

Steve Hsu claims to have solved hallucinations in a customer service context, which might be the only "startup-type" idea that has a head-start over the giants.

eddythompson80 · 4h ago
They do exist, but not in the simplistic "AI but for X" you described. The article even explicitly says there were zero of those companies in that round.

You can see "AI startups" examples there, A company that manages your business outbound communication with lots of AI features. AI powered code generation for business operations, Accounting services with lots of AI features, business finance software with lots of AI features

CyberRymden · 1h ago
I think it absolutely makes sense. ChatGPT's strength is how generalised it is as a tool, but openAI will never able to adapt the platform to every single use case. You can absolutely use it to learn a language for instance, but a great AI language learning platform needs a better tailored UI, it needs all kinds of non-AI functionality around it like idk a spaced repetition system, it might need to integrate into other platforms, and good prompting to be effective. AI isn't the product itself, but a component to try to solve a problem. And honestly I wish more startups focused less on simply "AI" and more on the problems it should solve.

If for nothing else openAI won't be able to market itself for every single use case, and so long as people aren't using chatGPT for some use case (even if it could perform the task) there's still an opening.

idiotsecant · 41m ago
But any use case that gets large enough and makes money will be absorbed by openai direct, based on the market developed by the startup. OpenAI is using the Amazon model. Let someone else spend the money figuring out which market segments are profitable, then steal them with their inherently better access to the platform.
keiferski · 4h ago
Yes, they do, because ultimately software UI is what gets regular people to use things.

To a technical user there may be little/no difference to you between prompt engineering into a chat box vs. clicking a button with premade text slots.

But to the average non-programmer, a chat app like ChatGPT is somewhat pigeonholed into the chat format, and so use cases that don’t lend themselves to this interface will be outcompeted by specific apps that do.

simianwords · 4h ago
Its a good point and it comes back to why Google can't take up projects that other startups are working on.

Google has all the technical infrastructure, talent and everything to make something like AirBnB, Docusign and hell even intellij. Why not?

lenkite · 5m ago
Because everything they attempt is inevitably compared to Google's ad business - which makes everything else look like a starving beggar.
A_D_E_P_T · 4h ago
Thing is, OpenAI/Anthropic/etc. are demonstrably taking up those ideas. There actually were (are?) AI PDF reader startups and AI research assistant startups. (And AI coding startups, AI video startups, image analysis startups, etc.)

"AI startups," if they make sense, seem to have a very short shelf-life. They're either overtaken by the continuing improvement in LLM context windows, or, if there's a real and general unmet need for what they offer, the giants will tend to integrate it.

jkukul · 4h ago
Google actually did make their own Docusign, it's called eSignature [1] and it was built into Google Workplace

[1] https://workspace.google.com/resources/esignature/

simianwords · 4h ago
There’s a specific reason why google doesnt promote a Docusign like product even when they have superior technical abilities.

It probably comes down to the fact that code is not that crucial but all the other non technical aspects like distribution, supplier relations and marketing that makes a product.

Maybe LLM wrappers turn out to be that way. The model may not matter but the distribution and customer relation etc would matter more.

scrollaway · 4h ago
And in true google fashion, it only works with Google accounts; if you send a signature request to a non-google account, it says it's sent but does not work...
OtherShrezzing · 2h ago
Because of a mix of comparative advantage and opportunity cost. Google as an entity absolutely dwarfs those other companies, and competes at that scale. Airbnb’s annual revenues are lower than Googles annual r&d spend. Google’s “wins” need to move the needle on a $2tn valuation, and an Airbnb size win doesn’t do that.
dyauspitr · 3h ago
> going so far as to download the fulltext of every legal ruling ever made in the US -- something like 400GB

Where can I find this?

fc417fc802 · 1h ago
PACER exists at the federal level. Otherwise you have to piece it together from each jurisdiction yourself, defeating any anti-scraping measures in the process. Unless someone happens to have made such a dataset available via torrent at some point?
PeterStuer · 3h ago
Maybe he refers to something like https://law.justia.com/
lubujackson · 6h ago
0 consumer products is wild. I know SaaS has taken over from a bang for buck perspective, but this seens like a too-narrow approach by YC.
PeterStuer · 3h ago
B2C has gone mostly 'free' which means it is either relying on shady business models, sensitive to regulation enforcement and so a risky investment, or a numbers game which requires significant upfront investment with a 'hit' business model return.

In both cases backing 1 company with significant investment is not rational.

throwanem · 5h ago
A too-narrow approach after Apple beefed it? Nobody knows how to bring AI to market yet but OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Long shots are one thing, but all the ideas I've heard for b2c AI so far are mostly more like pipe dreams. Look for a Zynga play once the field starts opening up for that in maybe a year or so, would be what I'd try to do.
keiferski · 4h ago
Levels. I think we are somewhere between 2 and 3?

1. YC startups target consumers. (B2C)

2. YC startups target businesses. (B2B)

3. YC network becomes large enough that startups can exist purely to serve other YC startups. (B2YC)

4. A new accelerator is launched which aims to fund YC companies that serve other YC companies. (YC4YC)

5. ?

Mostly joking, but I do sometimes look at the social media accounts of people in YC / Silicon Valley and wonder if they are living in an increasingly insular world. I think they would benefit from stepping outside of that into the greater world economy more deliberately.

spiderfarmer · 3h ago
Most AI money will be made outside Silicon Valley. If a company can save millions by spending thousands on AI, who profits the most?
biccsdev · 5h ago
0 consumer products is just a symptom of the current state of the global economy
ljf · 5h ago
It is also a sign of where something is in its cycle - when engines were first invented they laboured in mines originally, then moving traction engines/tractors, then trains - it was a long time before the average person owned an engine for their own use.
Ozzie_osman · 3h ago
One way to interpret this might be that in consumer products, it's easier for incumbents to add AI to improve an already well-marketed product than to build and market one from scratch.
Ezhik · 5h ago
I guess consumer products are a niche to be filled either by the giants or by random people with a dream and a bit of SwiftUI knowledge.
shivbhatia · 5h ago
Hard to beat the chat interface when it comes to consumer products if you ask me. Pre-AI I often wished I could just talk to an application rather than try to figure out how the buttons the developers had chosen to wire up mapped onto what I was trying to achieve.
econ · 2h ago
It look like cli to me.

You would rather have a thing that solves a specific problem in a completely reliable way. An application that knows what you want to do because there is only one thing to do in the universe. AI can write it but never be it.

eddythompson80 · 4h ago
> Zero LLM evaluation, observability, or tooling companies in the Series-A data.

This makes sense. The entire engineering/tooling field is so gonna change. Picking a winner makes isn't really possible. Most people are just starting to solve real problems with it and starting to build patterns that are not complete nonesense. But it will still change a lot

> “AI for X” verticals are surprisingly narrow.

I think that makes sense too. Those were a significant part of the initial hype. A lot of people promising that they'll take a "generic" LLM (which you all have seen how already smart that is) but now train it specifically on parenting, or trivia, or your emails, or your help center. It's a service type that will continue to exist. Perhaps it needs to tailor to a specific enterprise scenarios to gain traction as a startup. Though the need for these companies to manage the privacy concerns of the customers with their ability to inspect and look at the data and clean it might not be fully solved yet.

> Reducto - Reducto is an AI-driven API that specializes in converting unstructured documents like PDFs and images into structured data.

This is an example of the type of companies where "extracting LLM relevant context from X" and are relevant for any company doing the "AI for X" schtick or enterprise doing AI development on their own. This company is specifically about PDF and images, but we probably gonna see others that are for videos, archives, isos, msoffice docs, and even the ultimate holy grail of "universal binary => very rich structured data" API.

> Developer Tools & Infrastructure

The picks in this category are the most perplexing to me.

mritchie712 · 1h ago
I don't want to sound like the infamous dropbox comment, but isn't Reducto just an LLM function call?

This was trickier 18 months ago, but every major LLM provider has solid support for this now. You can just drop an API call to Google, OpenAI, etc. your existing pipeline. What am I missing? Maybe the selling point was batch, but all LLM providers have a batch product now too.

    classification_response = requests.post(
        "https://platform.reducto.ai/extract",
        json={
            "document_url": f"jobid://{job_id}",
            "schema": {
                "type": "object",
                "properties": {
                    "document_type": {"type": "string", "enum": ["W2", "Passport", "Other"]}
                },
                "required": ["document_type"],
            },
        },
        headers=headers,
    )
tzury · 5h ago
To measure what's working for B2B YC companies, especially over the course of two years period you need to answer the following questions:

    a) what are the growth rate when measuring customers which are *not* YC companies?
    b) what is the churn rate for that same group.
Measuring by Series A (Assuming investors are the compass not the users - aka the market), is completely anti-YC the way I perceive the YC philosophy from afar.
saubeidl · 5h ago
YC is going all-in on a technology with no proven business value, driven mostly by ideological desire.

It might prove to be their downfall.

atleastoptimal · 2h ago
Is HN’s continual downplaying of AI’s impact and economic potential against all evidence just the new version of the mentality that precipitated the famous Dropbox comment? The comments in anything AI related on this website are so predictable
tlb · 3h ago
When a technology has proven business value, it's too late for seed investment. Existing companies are usually better at commercializing tech with proven business value.

The economic purpose of seed investors is to take on technology-market risk. It's a necessary part of the economy, since the only way to find out if a technology has business value is to have companies build things with it. Without investors willing to take on that risk (and lose frequently -- more than half the time) there'd be only incremental technology progress.

simianwords · 4h ago
didn't YC research fund OpenAI itself?
threeseed · 2h ago
Yes. And now they have a massive vested interest in drawing startups into the space.
hn_throwaway_99 · 2h ago
I am curious about how this compares to past years.

I was pretty shocked that of 275 companies in the Winter 2023 batch, only 12 have received Series A deals. Granted, I know a huge part of that is that the VC environment has just collapsed due to the end of the ZIRP era, but those numbers at least sound pretty brutal to me.

threeseed · 5h ago
a) The next two years are the reckoning for a lot of these AI startups. In the enterprise space everyone was being pushed to trial AI products to see whether they can deliver the ROI that was being marketed. Newsflash: it hasn't. And many of these startups will see serious churn.

b) Everyone needs to stop perpetuating the YC lie that they invest in the best founders and they just happen to want to do AI. It's rubbish and insulting because it implies that only young, male, SF-based founders can be the best. Instead it's clear that YC has been aggressively pushing AI which makes sense given they are a significant investor in OpenAI.

bravesoul2 · 14m ago
When you read people's experience with AI for building/coding I get the feeling we are still not quite there on a lot of things, but when we get there you can just buy direct from Costco (I.e. OpenAI etc.)

Sell your AI hot potato quickly!

gizmo · 4h ago
Other than the "request for startups" YC publishes YC doesn't push founders to start a specific type of business. AI is simply where the opportunity is (or is perceived to be). YC (and everybody else) understands that most AI enterprise startups will fail, as you point out. The gamble, as always, is that a few startups in the current batch will get huge.
mirkodrummer · 2h ago
They dont push founders but surely they allocate more on AI startups, so founders put the magic word X with AI or AI Driven in their products for the same reason
threeseed · 2h ago
> YC doesn't push founders to start a specific type of business

Of course it does.

Founders look at YC batches, see that it is 99% AI companies and are then forced to also go in that direction if they want the benefits of the accelerated YC path.

And YC deliberately chooses founders with AI companies because they have an investment thesis that is different from "request for startups". Garry Tan has been a massive e/acc fanboy since the beginning and genuinely believes that AI in every use case will advance humanity. And the partners all align with this.

This is all inarguable because amongst the tens of thousands of applications there are surely many amazing non-AI companies. Is this implication that they are all worse than what was selected in the batch ?

pera · 4h ago
You are being downvoted but I think you are correct: I'm not sure I could name a single company that came out from YC in the past 10 years, which makes think that YC was essentially pg, and I'm not a fan of him but he was obviously a very talented business person and had a really good eye for startups.

YC's leadership nowadays seem to lack of any kind of vision and just follows whatever shiny tech is currently in vogue, which is a huge red flag for accelerators.

davedx · 3h ago
Pretty interesting. Also seeing some pivots, Numeral seems to have changed tack a little to focus primarily on a US pain point (sales tax), earlier it was a more general purpose accounting tech product I think. I wonder what other pivots there have been in this batch, and what it means.
Havoc · 2h ago
>Zero LLM evaluation, observability, or tooling companies in the Series-A data.

What does he/she mean by tooling in this context?

Later section talks about developer tools so not that by the sounds of it. So tooling around inference maybe? Pretty sure ollama is in YC and that's surely "tooling"?

Karrot_Kream · 4h ago
I'm curious how many startups started making revenue after Seed and decided to defer an A round. I've had a couple companies reach out to ke claiming that they're close to breaking even at Seed, but I have my doubts.
chelm · 2h ago
Adding 4 hypotheses to the dicussion.

B2B opportunities are inherently easier to identify during early-stage evaluations due to clearer revenue models and problem-solution alignment.

YC’s network amplifies B2B growth by directly connecting startups to other batch companies as potential early adopters or customers. I found it interesting that https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/legora (former Leya) is using Reducto. If I get page 9 in the pitch deck correct: https://www.pitchdeckinspo.com/deck/Reducto_02c1f2af-3fa2-4a...

Early-stage B2B startups require less capital and shorter timelines to demonstrate product-market fit compared to B2C.

YC’s founder archetype—technical, execution-driven, and efficiency-focused - naturally gravitates toward building scalable B2B solutions.

Thanks for pointing out Reducto! I added it to my market overview: https://idp-software.com/vendors/reducto-ai/

TLDR

The IDP market remains a massive and growing space. There will be a new segment of the market for simple cases that do not need domain expertise, validation, and integration. Generic Document AI tools, so-called AI wrapper, provide easy wins for basic input extraction / categorization and splitting tasks.

Operational complexity, on-premises, integrating directly with enterprise infrastructure and domain-specific validation across fields mean different workflows require specialized handling. I think this is why Hyland, Abbyy and others can compete with the market, event the tech stack lagging.

bitlad · 6h ago
Does YC have favorites in each batch? thats how the blog comes across.
threeseed · 5h ago
Yes. The top performers in each batch have offers before demo day and some won't even present.

There is a secret funnel from YC to a select group of top tier VCs.

millgrove · 5h ago
a number of companies from these batches have raised series As and have not announced yet. probably ~5
konstantinua00 · 6h ago
what does YC mean here? Y combinator?
biccsdev · 5h ago
yes