Definitely not buying this. If anything I think we will see a barbell distribution in the job market, with entry-level and very high end jobs still available and a lot of the middle tier of jobs being taken out. The theory behind this is that the entry-level people can increase their effectiveness using AI tooling to the point where where they are almost as effective as the middle-tier used to be, the very high end are still needed to do the things that AI doesn’t do well and fewer middle managers, professional meeting attendees and telephone sanitizers are needed to make the whole thing function.
fuddy · 22h ago
I don't see the middle tier disappearing, it already has the jobs the entry level would take and few were shaken loose by return to work mandates and flat pay rises even when less of the industry was lowering total effective compensation.. In some countries/industries jobs very quickly reach a max compensation and then continue to hire the most experienced for the same price as anyone else.
mystified5016 · 21h ago
All we have now are "entry level" jobs with PhD level requirements and senior roles that companies post but never hire.
The market doesn't want actual junior engineers right now. Training juniors into productive workers takes time and money when you could just hire a senior, call them a junior, and chronically under pay them until they quit
zcw100 · 21h ago
Why are we talking about “jobs” like it’s some singular thing? Is the best we can do to explain what we think might happen to line up every person who has something that can be described as a job, left to right by experience, and then decide which part is going to be mowed down by AI?
It’s just going to be way more complex than that. Some people are going to have more work than they know what to do with. Some jobs are going away, some people will see zero change. It’s going to depend on what you do, what industry you’re in, where you live, your experience. We can see some vague outlines of what is coming but the only thing we can be certain of, at this point, is there will be a lot of change.
tronicjester · 22h ago
How many jobs we create is a terrible metric for societal progress. How many jobs we destroy is the absolute best. Man doesn't need labor it needs work and work based on need/subsistence is a necessity for capitalist barons and communist pimps.
What have we been struggling for if not freedom from menial routine production - especially in engineering and farming? Jobs are a way to onboard new markets into capitalist systems and to busy idle hands in socialist ones. We should be wary the proponents of job creation and critics of work nullification in equal measure.
colesantiago · 1d ago
From the conversations I am having this appears to be false.
There will be new jobs created from AI that young people need to be able to pick up.
Remember Jevons Paradox, the more cheaper AI is, the more usage and use cases of AI we will see, which means an abundance of more jobs.
jocaal · 20h ago
Jevin's paradox isn't guaranteed to take effect. It is an observation that sometimes occurs, not a tool for prediction.
The market doesn't want actual junior engineers right now. Training juniors into productive workers takes time and money when you could just hire a senior, call them a junior, and chronically under pay them until they quit
It’s just going to be way more complex than that. Some people are going to have more work than they know what to do with. Some jobs are going away, some people will see zero change. It’s going to depend on what you do, what industry you’re in, where you live, your experience. We can see some vague outlines of what is coming but the only thing we can be certain of, at this point, is there will be a lot of change.
What have we been struggling for if not freedom from menial routine production - especially in engineering and farming? Jobs are a way to onboard new markets into capitalist systems and to busy idle hands in socialist ones. We should be wary the proponents of job creation and critics of work nullification in equal measure.
There will be new jobs created from AI that young people need to be able to pick up.
Remember Jevons Paradox, the more cheaper AI is, the more usage and use cases of AI we will see, which means an abundance of more jobs.