That form of migration is happening all over the world right now.
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
Not doubting all this, but the possum thing is interesting.
They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
Workaccount2 · 7m ago
And the mother f-ing ticks spreading everywhere on the US east coast!
mathiaspoint · 5m ago
Maybe you're new here or spent most of your life in the city but at least in the mid Atlantic ticks have always been a problem.
I don't like pesticide but the ticks mean it isn't optional.
Scarblac · 1h ago
But not all species are mobile enough, and up north the winters are darker and the summers are lighter.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
mapt · 46m ago
In a time of rapid ecological change, highly mobile R-selected species have huge advantages.
ljf · 2h ago
I think the issue is for the animals that actually need a colder climate and/or rely on ice/snow cover - a warming world won't give them a new space to move to (yet).
giarc · 1h ago
One anecdote/example that has stuck with me is a heard of caribou in the Canadian north. In winter, they typically dig through the snow to find plants to eat. One year, with rising temperatures, a large area was left with a thick layer of ice on top of the snow. Precipitation was falling as rain (instead of snow) due to warmer temperatures, then freezing overnight creating this thick layer of ice. The caribou couldn't punch through the ice and ended up starving to death resulting in a mass die off.
nwatson · 46m ago
The ones that survived will have had more efficient metabolisms, or harder hooves that could break through the ice to get to the food, or could have learned a technique to cope. Hopefully their next generation will retain those traits or that culture to adapt.
mapt · 40m ago
Bigger animals have low numbers, larger ranges, less genetic variability, longer reproductive cycles, evolve much slower, and tend to go extinct much more reliably.
ambicapter · 33m ago
Yeah, animal species definitely successfully evolve over the course of a dozen years /s
mapt · 43m ago
We may lose the sea ice and continental glaciers, but we'll probably still retain some ice with the intersection of extreme altitudes and extreme latitudes, at least for our lifetimes. A place like Denali is a lifeboat.
nsavage · 1h ago
These are great examples, I have some more ancedotal evidence in Canada, such as the creeping north of the wine industry. Used to be just Point Pelee, then Niagara, and now even the Ottawa Valley has wineries.
aceofspades19 · 1h ago
There have been wineries in the Okanagan Valley in BC since the 1800s which is farther north than Ottawa. So I am not sure that's a particularly good example.
myth_drannon · 33m ago
The worst one is ticks and Lyme desease they carry
brabel · 14m ago
They are very common in Sweden, and have always been as far as I know. Are they supposed to be only common in Southern Europe??
hereonout2 · 29m ago
Don't know if birds count, but the egret population has exploded in the UK in the last 10 years.
There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
ljf · 2h ago
I posted similar about UK waters the other day - it isn't as extreme here but it is noticeable, on Wednesday I completed a 2+ hour snorkel (with a wetsuit) when I'm often too cold after an hour.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
11235813213455 · 44m ago
No problem, we will build a cooling system for the Mediterranean sea, so that tourism can keep going safely, planes keep covering the sky, consumers keep over-consuming, sigh..
Ericson2314 · 40m ago
Now we just need to see if air-conditioning also migrates north within Europe...
mytailorisrich · 39m ago
> "In the Red Sea, lionfish have predators. There are sharks and barracudas. Here, we have none of that."
They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...
As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).
throwaway5752 · 17m ago
At this point you just have to make peace with very bad futures. We will all die, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent things. To save the world, more people have to be willing to fight for this than currently are.
The pure physics of the situation are staggering. The specific heat capacity of water is huge. The volume of ocean surface is huge. We are completely fucked. Everything you've read minimizing this or pretending we can continue with business as usual is a lie. Atmosphere SO2, enhanced rock weathering, ocean iron fertilization - it is horseshit. We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our standard of living through technology is comically false. At this point, every large nation on earth would have to simultaneously cut emissions by more than half, we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy, and another global Manhattan Project around geoengineering (while not tipping ourselves into an ice age). It would require unprecedented leadership and cooperartion.
The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had, surrounded by psychopaths that do not care about human suffering and act on base zero sum power calculus. The world is at war. The tech industry is greedily and actively accelerating this with crypto and AI buildout. The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.
bondarchuk: I changed this, please delete your comment.
bondarchuk · 12m ago
> I get downvoted for saying this,
You will if you open like this.
sebmellen · 6m ago
I get shunned by the tribe for saying this, but at this point you just have to make peace with very bad winters. We will all freeze, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent the ice spirits. To save the tribe, more people have to be willing to hunt the great beasts than currently are.
The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.
Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us).
The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...
They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
I don't like pesticide but the ticks mean it isn't optional.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...
As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).
The pure physics of the situation are staggering. The specific heat capacity of water is huge. The volume of ocean surface is huge. We are completely fucked. Everything you've read minimizing this or pretending we can continue with business as usual is a lie. Atmosphere SO2, enhanced rock weathering, ocean iron fertilization - it is horseshit. We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our standard of living through technology is comically false. At this point, every large nation on earth would have to simultaneously cut emissions by more than half, we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy, and another global Manhattan Project around geoengineering (while not tipping ourselves into an ice age). It would require unprecedented leadership and cooperartion.
The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had, surrounded by psychopaths that do not care about human suffering and act on base zero sum power calculus. The world is at war. The tech industry is greedily and actively accelerating this with crypto and AI buildout. The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.
bondarchuk: I changed this, please delete your comment.
You will if you open like this.
The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.
Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us). The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.