Ask HN: Why hasn't x86 caught up with Apple M series?

NVDA had a surprise earnings on May 24, 2023, closing at $305 and opening at $385 (before the 10 for 1 split). Pretty much every earnings day since then has been the same - the numbers come out, they beat what they estimated, the stock goes down a little. People have been doom and glooming it every earnings call - you can read the threads here from May 2023, people were saying it was a bubble then, and it's over four times what it was then.

FaridIO · 1h ago

The idea that the world will ever have enough compute is ridiculous. I'm sure all of this sudden growth will need to be digested at some point, but that won't mean the industry will permanently lose a big chunk of its market cap.

boroboro4 · 45m ago

Same argument can be somewhat applied to CPUs circa 90s. The growth did stop/stalled in the end.

I think the expectation of ever growing compute is not totally crazy. It will come with lower margins eventually though, and more players in the market. It also might get much more moderate, including from hardware limitations. Efficiency wise h200->b200 isn’t as crazy as a100->h100.

nitwit005 · 27m ago

The desire for it may be without limit, but the desire to spend money on it definitely has some limitations.

sheeshkebab · 48m ago

When dot com crashed it was similar - compute use didn’t reduce, far from it, it’s just capex crashed to the ground and took 90% of Nasdaq value with it, for a few years.

andy_ppp · 1h ago

I can’t wait for how cheap compute will be during the inevitable AI winter.

blibble · 46m ago

unfortunately mostly useless 4 bit floating point

nicce · 41m ago

How is it useless?

techpineapple · 2h ago

Wouldn’t this be a lagging indicator?

kirito1337 · 2h ago

It will slow down, wait for it.

laughing_man · 2h ago

There seems to be no limit to the size of this bubble.

mocha_nate · 1h ago

i really only started hearing about AI bubble this year. with the housing bubble, people were talking about it in 2005 and it took years for it to finally break. maybe AI bubble is the same

tedsanders · 42m ago

Except the housing bubble wasn't actually a bubble. Housing prices today are much higher than in 2007. Based on realized results, the mispricing wasn't the peak of the housing bubble but the trough of the crash. With the benefit of hindsight, the peak actually undervalued how expensive housing would get. (Speaking about the US market in aggregate. Not other countries, nor localities like Las Vegas where the case for a bubble is stronger.)

blizdiddy · 2h ago

Boom and bust capitalism is completely orthogonal to AI as a technology. Capitalists are sociopathic opportunists that exploit every aspect of life, that doesn’t have anything to do with AI.

Housing bubbles existed, we still use houses. The dot com bubble existed, we are still on a dot com.

tenuousemphasis · 1h ago

What makes you think the capitalists won't train a capitalist AI?

ProjectArcturis · 2h ago

Stock is down 3% after hours.

xnx · 26m ago

Taking it all the way back to the price a week ago.

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