Why do the estimated births/deaths per second counters have so much flicker? Surely you don't actually believe that the expected number of births/deaths per second fluctuates at 1dp precision multiple times per second?
avvt4avaw · 47m ago
> The continuously updating global population counter is based on current aggregate birth and death rates (approximating values such as those from the U.S. Census Bureau International Database or UN DESA). The "live" births and deaths per second are statistically generated fluctuations around these averages to enhance the dynamic feel.
Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it feel more realistic. To me, this makes it feel less realistic.
Anyway, don't mean to gripe, this is a cool project!
bspammer · 20m ago
Fun suggestion: move the "Live Viewers" counter to be a real entry on the site at the bottom.
Viewing this site: 40 (0.0000005%)
sinuhe69 · 3h ago
Related:
I find the simulation and visualization of the same topic (albeit for US only) by DataFlow much more engaging and comprehensible. The project is based on data of a US survey.
I think something similar can be done on the world-wide scale with MTUS (Multinational Time Use Study) data [0], with some creative interpolation. From what I gathered, OP's simulation is more of a live Fermi estimate, so it would be interesting to see the same done with greater precision.
Pretty entertaining to watch the bubbles change color/activity but be unable to go to their designated area because they're unable to break away from the bulk of their neighbors.
Like peer pressure, but really just an artifact of the chosen technology for the visualization
yard2010 · 1h ago
Isn't rl peer pressure also an artifact of the chosen "tech", or in other words - an artifact of perspective
alwa · 5h ago
The changelog indicates:
> * Fixed "Intimacy" count to always be an even number.
The FTX polycule would like a word…
Beautiful work!
netsharc · 1h ago
"What would you do if you had a million dollars Lawrence?"
01HNNWZ0MV43FF · 5h ago
Heck, Betty Dodson would like a word. I don't need anyone's help to be intimate!
satellite2 · 57m ago
Intimacy being almost the exact same number as warfare is pretty sad.
On a more joyous note, it's really neat projet, thanks.
ssm008 · 1m ago
Yeah made me wonder. But then again warfare is 24/7 while intimacy once every now and then.
ithkuil · 3m ago
make love not war!
davedx · 20m ago
Pretty interesting project. A dynamic snapshot of human activity
wanderingstan · 5h ago
There is something sobering and humbling at “seeing” 2 people die every second.
To realize that entire lifetimes of memory and experiences are disappearing so quickly.
Though I’ve probably seen that stat before, the site does a good job of making it feel “live” with the updating population count and live stats on everything else.
jpk · 3h ago
For sure, but on balance, during that second:
- A smart little girl aced her math test.
- A loving father smiled at his kid.
- A grandma blew out her 80th birthday candles.
Lifetimes in progress, building their own memories and experiences.
So, two people may have died in that second, but 8 billion people lived.
userbinator · 3h ago
And every second, another 4 are born.
WarOnPrivacy · 3h ago
Compared to my parents, I spent 20x the time parenting (the new normal) and I'm not sure these stats reflect that.
Our global birthrate is a unconcerning 2.3 and worldwide restroom use continues apace.
Sex is edging out smoking but not by much.
jl6 · 1h ago
A net positive birth rate is still concerning. 8.2 billion people is a lot. All of the world’s problems, from energy sourcing to food production to climate change become harder and harder as the population continues to grow.
It’s easy to be complacent in developed countries because birth rates have come way down, probably because of increased wealth and better education/opportunity for women and girls - but this is not yet the case in developing countries, and the nature of exponential growth is that if it exists anywhere locally, then it will eventually come to exist globally.
It really doesn’t help to cut aid programmes to places that are most in need of development.
derektank · 1h ago
The Club for Rome estimates that global population will peak at just below 9 billion by the middle of the century and then begin a sharp decline, ending at under 7 billion by 2100.
This is really bad if your country's pension and welfare system assumes a certain ratio of people will be in the labor force, relative to the number of old and retired people, as most developed countries do. A declining birth rate is much worse than a slightly positive birth rate.
jl6 · 1h ago
Maybe time to fix the ponzi approach to pensions and welfare instead of continuing to assume unlimited population growth on a finite planet.
Edit: it’s not that I don’t believe the population projections showing a peak later in the century (although I think the Club of Rome one in particular is inaccurate), it’s that these projections are based on there being continued effort to bring birth rates down, hence now not being the time for complacency or defunding these efforts.
ggm · 4h ago
I'm surprised at the surface difference between birth and death rate because we're told the aggregate rate of increase is declining. The difference between the two suggests birth outruns death by 2:1 which feels steep for something which will max out in 2050.
I realise sub-saharan Africa continues to be high birthrate and is a huge component of world population, but the trend of increased economic activity to lower birth rate is really high worldwide, and most western economies in the OECD would be in decline, were it not for migration.
decimalenough · 1h ago
Wikipedia: "It may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in birth rate, because the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, a population that has recently dropped below replacement-level fertility will continue to grow, because the recent high fertility produced large numbers of young couples, who would now be in their childbearing years."
That could be because most people in the world currently are young. Hypothetically even if birth rate remains constant but suddenly a huge portion of the population start dying due to age then it could flip suddenly
whyage · 42m ago
Roughly the same number of people who make love, make war. That's sad.
rightbyte · 1h ago
Reassuring to know there are 129 million bottoms joining me in bathrooms about now.
saagarjha · 42m ago
There are presumably some more bottoms joining in for the other categories too.
bvirb · 5h ago
Accurate, saw restroom use tick up 1
montag · 1h ago
Could easily extend the idea to zoom in on the map, constraining to various region sizes... The information gets a little "washed out" when you combine all the timezones into one blob.
There are still some parts of Asia that are below replacement birth rates.
adt · 4h ago
>The initial concept was explored with the help of AI (specifically, Gemini), iterating through prompts to develop the core logic for a dynamic simulation. The goal was to create something engaging, all within a single HTML file – a testament to what can be achieved with focused iteration and modern web technologies.
Am I the only one surprised & perplexed about a phone representing “leisure”?
gertlex · 4h ago
What single emoji would you choose instead?
It seems reasonable to me.
danihh · 4h ago
Beach umbrella, couch, person in lotus position, a book…
Nothing outrageous, but it’s an interesting shift of perspective.
jagaerglad · 4h ago
the dancing or partying ones, although admittedly we all scroll the phone more
siavosh · 6h ago
Wonderful. I always found the idea of billions of people particularly famous people doing something (anything) simultaneously as me, unbelievable for some reason. This somehow brings this issue front and center on a global scale. Well done.
OsrsNeedsf2P · 2h ago
Is anyone else shocked by how low the Paid Work and Education bars are? Is there a way to see this for specific countries?
Turskarama · 1h ago
Combined they make up about 33% of all activity, which is what you would expect if 100% of people spent every single day doing one of those things for ~8 hours. It's pretty much right in line with what I'd expect, possibly even a bit higher considering small children and retirees.
jen729w · 4h ago
Just the other day, walking through a sleepy country town (Hawks Nest, NSW, AU), I was explaining to my partner how I'd love to have an AR overlay of the town that told me, statistically, what each person in each house was doing.
Ideally it'd consider an estimate of the house's value and use vision to assess the real-time appearance of the property to further hone its model.
If you could do that next, please. Oh and buy me a Vision Pro. Cheers.
If you plan on adding to it, would be cool see (maybe via heatmap) where the births/deaths are happening.
Willingham · 6h ago
Your design of this page and your whole website is beautiful. How many years experience do you have with front end development?
Sn0wCoder · 5h ago
Agreed. The world map showing evening, night and morning is a great visual to have updated in real time.
fedeb95 · 1h ago
the declining number of people engaged in warfare is the saddest statistic.
saagarjha · 41m ago
One would hope that it's because they've decided to resolve their differences and lay down arms?
bikamonki · 5h ago
Wonderful work! If 0.13% are in jail, how many do you estimate are positively changing the world?
lanewinfield · 4h ago
cool idea and nice execution! one thought: maybe make the time scale on your mini graphs a little longer so you can see larger changes?
musicale · 6h ago
That does it, I'm going back to sleep.
dgfitz · 5h ago
I’m not even mad, I’m impressed.
nishRC · 4h ago
16% are doing paid work? I always assumed that would be higher
jader201 · 2h ago
Full time people spend roughly 24% of their week working.
Factoring in PTO/holidays, roughly 20 years of education and 20 years retirement, part time and unemployment, that number drops quite a bit (I’d guess roughly half, to 12%).
Of course, some people start work earlier and retire later, and some work more than 40 hours per week.
Ok, so you added high-frequency random noise to the estimated averages to make it feel more realistic. To me, this makes it feel less realistic.
Anyway, don't mean to gripe, this is a cool project!
Viewing this site: 40 (0.0000005%)
I find the simulation and visualization of the same topic (albeit for US only) by DataFlow much more engaging and comprehensible. The project is based on data of a US survey.
https://flowingdata.com/2015/12/15/a-day-in-the-life-of-amer...
[0] https://www.timeuse.org/mtus
Like peer pressure, but really just an artifact of the chosen technology for the visualization
> * Fixed "Intimacy" count to always be an even number.
The FTX polycule would like a word…
Beautiful work!
On a more joyous note, it's really neat projet, thanks.
To realize that entire lifetimes of memory and experiences are disappearing so quickly.
Though I’ve probably seen that stat before, the site does a good job of making it feel “live” with the updating population count and live stats on everything else.
Lifetimes in progress, building their own memories and experiences. So, two people may have died in that second, but 8 billion people lived.
Our global birthrate is a unconcerning 2.3 and worldwide restroom use continues apace.
Sex is edging out smoking but not by much.
It’s easy to be complacent in developed countries because birth rates have come way down, probably because of increased wealth and better education/opportunity for women and girls - but this is not yet the case in developing countries, and the nature of exponential growth is that if it exists anywhere locally, then it will eventually come to exist globally.
It really doesn’t help to cut aid programmes to places that are most in need of development.
This is really bad if your country's pension and welfare system assumes a certain ratio of people will be in the labor force, relative to the number of old and retired people, as most developed countries do. A declining birth rate is much worse than a slightly positive birth rate.
Edit: it’s not that I don’t believe the population projections showing a peak later in the century (although I think the Club of Rome one in particular is inaccurate), it’s that these projections are based on there being continued effort to bring birth rates down, hence now not being the time for complacency or defunding these efforts.
I realise sub-saharan Africa continues to be high birthrate and is a huge component of world population, but the trend of increased economic activity to lower birth rate is really high worldwide, and most western economies in the OECD would be in decline, were it not for migration.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_momentum
https://humans.maxcomperatore.com/why.html
It seems reasonable to me.
Nothing outrageous, but it’s an interesting shift of perspective.
Ideally it'd consider an estimate of the house's value and use vision to assess the real-time appearance of the property to further hone its model.
If you could do that next, please. Oh and buy me a Vision Pro. Cheers.
If you plan on adding to it, would be cool see (maybe via heatmap) where the births/deaths are happening.
Factoring in PTO/holidays, roughly 20 years of education and 20 years retirement, part time and unemployment, that number drops quite a bit (I’d guess roughly half, to 12%).
Of course, some people start work earlier and retire later, and some work more than 40 hours per week.
So to me, 16% seems about right.