This is a great list for people who want to smugly say "Um, actually" a lot in conversation.
Based on my brief stint doing data work in psychology research, amongst many other problems they are AWFUL at stats. And it isn't a skill issue as much as a cultural one. They teach it wrong and have a "well, everybody else does it" attitude towards p-hacking and other statistical malpractice.
odyssey7 · 6m ago
There’s surely irony here
sputr · 24m ago
As someone who's part of a startup (hrpotentials.com) trying to bring truly scientifically valid psychological testing into HR processes .... yeah. We've been at it for almost 7 years, and we're finally at a point where we can say we have something that actually makes scientific sense - and we're not inventing anything new, just commercializing the science! It only took an electrical engineer (not me) with a strong grasp of statistics working for years with a competent professor of psychology to separate the wheat from the chaff. There's some good science there it's just ... not used much.
PaulHoule · 22m ago
Yeah, this is an era which is notorious for pseudoscience.
Waterluvian · 27m ago
Um, actually I’d say it is the responsibility of all scientists, both professional and amateur, to point out falsehoods when they’re uttered, and not an act of smugness.
rolph · 11m ago
[um], has contexts but is usually a cue, that an unexpected, off the average, something is about to be said.
[actually], is a neutral declaration that some cognitive structure was presented, but is at odds with physically observable fact that will now be laid out to you.
delichon · 2h ago
Approximate replication rates in psychology:
social 37%
cognitive 42%
personality 55%
clinical 44%
So a list of famous psychology experiments that do replicate may be shorter.
I think one would wish the famous ones to be more often replicable.
sunscream89 · 12m ago
There may be minute details like having a confident frame of reference for the confidence tests. Cultures, even psychologies might swing certain ideas and their compulsions.
bogtog · 10m ago
Little of this is considered cognitive psychology. The vast majority would be viewed as "social psychology"
I'm still amazed that wikipedia doesn't have redirect away from its mobile site
dang · 20m ago
(It's on my list to rewrite those URLs in HN comments at least)
glial · 1h ago
The incentive of all psychology researchers is to do new work rather than replications. Because of this, publicly-funded psychology PhDs should be required to perform study replication as part of their training. Protocol + results should be put in a database.
gwd · 16m ago
How interesting would it be if every PhD thesis had to have a "replication" section, where they tried to replicate some famous paper's results.
gwd · 18m ago
> Smile to Feel Better Effect
> Claimed result: Holding a pen in your teeth (forcing a smile-like expression) makes you rate cartoons as funnier compared to holding a pen with your lips (preventing smiling). More broadly, facial expressions can influence emotional experiences: "fake it till you make it."
I read this about a decade ago, and started, when going into a situation where I wanted to have a natural smile, grimacing maniacally like I had a pencil in my teeth. The thing is, it's just so silly, it always makes me laugh at myself, at which point I have a genuine smile. I always doubted whether the claimed connection was real, but it's been a useful tool anyway.
sunscream89 · 14m ago
Yeah, the marshmallow one taught me to have patience and look for the long returns on investments of personal effort.
I think there may be something to a few of these, and more may need considering regarding how these are conducted.
Let’s leave open our credulities for the inquest of time.
Terr_ · 53m ago
> Source: Hagger et (63!) al. 2016
I can't help chuckling at the idea that over 1.98 * 10^87 people were involved in the paper.
fsckboy · 46m ago
famous cognitive psychology experiments that do replicate: IQ tests
in fact, the foundational statistical models considered the gold standard for statistics today were developed for this testing.
alphazard · 28m ago
> in fact, the foundational statistical models considered the gold standard for statistics today were developed for this testing.
The normal distribution predates the general factor model of IQ by hundreds of years.[0]
You can try other distributions yourself, it's going to be hard to find one that better fits the existing IQ data than the normal (bell curve) distribution.
Darwin's cousin, Francis Galton, for whom the log-normal distribution is often called the Galton distribution, was among the first to investigate psychometrics.
apparently hundreds of years late to the game, he still coined the term "median"
Papers should not be accepted until an independent lab has replicated the results. It’s pretty simple but people are incentivized to not care if it’s replicable because they need the paper to publish to advance their career
systemstops · 28m ago
Is anyone tracking how much damage to society bad social science has done? I imagine it's quite a bit.
izabera · 19m ago
i'm struggling to imagine many negative effects on society caused by the specific papers in this list
systemstops · 5m ago
Public policies were made (or justified) based on some of this research. People used this "settled science" to make consequential decisions.
Stereotype threat for example was widely used to explain test score gaps as purely environmental, which contributed to the public seeing gaps as a moral emergency that needed to be fixed, leading to affirmative action policies.
feoren · 19m ago
We rack up quite a lot of awfulness with eugenics, phrenology, the "science" that influenced Stalin's disastrous agriculture policies in the early USSR, overpopulation scares leading to China's one-child policy, etc. Although one could argue these were back-justifications for the awfulness that people wanted to do anyway.
systemstops · 11m ago
Those things were not done by awful people though - they all thought they were serving the public good. We only judge it as awful now because of the results. Nearly of these ideas (Lysenkoism I think was always fringe) were embraced by the educated elites of the time.
ausbah · 43m ago
i wonder the replication rate is for ML papers
PaulHoule · 20m ago
From working in industry and rubbing shoulders with CS people who prioritize writing papers over writing working software I’m sure that in a high fraction of papers people didn’t implement the algorithm they thought they implemented.
Animats · 23m ago
> Most results in the field do actually replicate and are robust [citation needed], so it would be a pity to lose confidence in the whole field just because of a few bad apples.
Is there a good list of results that do consistently replicate?
hn_throw_250915 · 31m ago
I thought we knew that these were vehicles by wannabe self-help authors to puff up their status for money. See for example “Grit” and “Deep Work” and other bullshit entries in a breathlessly hyped up genre of pseudoscience.
juujian · 26m ago
Now I want to know which cognitive psychology experiments were successfully replicated though.
SpaceManNabs · 1h ago
One thing that confuses me is that some of these papers were successfully replicated, so juxtaposing them to the ones that have not been replicated at all given the title of the page feels a bit off. Not sure if fair.
The ego depletion effect seems intuitively surprising to me. Science is often unintuitive. I do know that it is easier to make forward-thinking decisions when I am not tired so I dont know.
ceckGrad · 14m ago
>some of these papers were successfully replicated, so juxtaposing them to the ones that have not been replicated at all given the title of the page feels a bit off. Not sure if fair.
I don't like Giancotti's claims. He wrote:
>This post is a compact reference list of the most (in)famous cognitive science results that failed to replicate and should, for the time being, be considered false.
I don't agree with Giancotti's epistemological claims but today I will not bloviate at length about the epistemology of science. I will try to be brief.
If I understand Marco Giancotti correctly, one particular point is that Giancotti seems to be saying that Hagger et al. have impressively debunked Baumeister et al.
The ego depletion "debunking" is not really what I would call a refutation. It says, "Results from the current multilab registered replication of the ego-depletion effect provide evidence that, if there is any effect, it is close to zero. ... Although the current analysis provides robust evidence that questions the strength of the ego-depletion effect and its replicability, it may be premature to reject the ego-depletion effect altogether based on these data alone."
Maybe Baumeister's protocol was fundamentally flawed, but the counter-argument from Hagger et al. does not convince me. I wasn't thrilled with Baumeister's claims when they came out, but now I am somehow even less thrilled with the claims of Hagger et al., and I absolutely don't trust Giancotti's assessment.
I could believe that Hagger executed Baumeister's protocol correctly, but I can't believe Giancotti has a grasp of what scientific claims "should" be "believed."
taeric · 46m ago
The idea isn't that it is easier to do things when not tired. It is that you specifically get tired exercising self control.
I think that can be subtly confused by people thinking you can't get better at self control with practice? That is, I would think a deliberate practice of doing more and more self control every day should build up your ability to do more self control. And it would be easy to think that that means you have a stamina for self control that depletes in the same way that aerobic fitness can work. But, those don't necessarily follow each other.
Based on my brief stint doing data work in psychology research, amongst many other problems they are AWFUL at stats. And it isn't a skill issue as much as a cultural one. They teach it wrong and have a "well, everybody else does it" attitude towards p-hacking and other statistical malpractice.
[actually], is a neutral declaration that some cognitive structure was presented, but is at odds with physically observable fact that will now be laid out to you.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2015.18248
Setting that aside, among any scientific field I'm aware of, psychology has taken the replication crisis most seriously. Rigor across all areas of psychology is steadily increasing: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/25152459251323...
Wow, what are the odds?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern%E2%80%93Gerlach_experime...
> Claimed result: Holding a pen in your teeth (forcing a smile-like expression) makes you rate cartoons as funnier compared to holding a pen with your lips (preventing smiling). More broadly, facial expressions can influence emotional experiences: "fake it till you make it."
I read this about a decade ago, and started, when going into a situation where I wanted to have a natural smile, grimacing maniacally like I had a pencil in my teeth. The thing is, it's just so silly, it always makes me laugh at myself, at which point I have a genuine smile. I always doubted whether the claimed connection was real, but it's been a useful tool anyway.
I think there may be something to a few of these, and more may need considering regarding how these are conducted.
Let’s leave open our credulities for the inquest of time.
I can't help chuckling at the idea that over 1.98 * 10^87 people were involved in the paper.
http://www.psychpage.com/learning/library/intell/mainstream....
in fact, the foundational statistical models considered the gold standard for statistics today were developed for this testing.
The normal distribution predates the general factor model of IQ by hundreds of years.[0]
You can try other distributions yourself, it's going to be hard to find one that better fits the existing IQ data than the normal (bell curve) distribution.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#History
apparently hundreds of years late to the game, he still coined the term "median"
more tidbits here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Galton#Statistical_inn...
Stereotype threat for example was widely used to explain test score gaps as purely environmental, which contributed to the public seeing gaps as a moral emergency that needed to be fixed, leading to affirmative action policies.
Is there a good list of results that do consistently replicate?
The ego depletion effect seems intuitively surprising to me. Science is often unintuitive. I do know that it is easier to make forward-thinking decisions when I am not tired so I dont know.
I don't like Giancotti's claims. He wrote: >This post is a compact reference list of the most (in)famous cognitive science results that failed to replicate and should, for the time being, be considered false.
I don't agree with Giancotti's epistemological claims but today I will not bloviate at length about the epistemology of science. I will try to be brief.
If I understand Marco Giancotti correctly, one particular point is that Giancotti seems to be saying that Hagger et al. have impressively debunked Baumeister et al.
The ego depletion "debunking" is not really what I would call a refutation. It says, "Results from the current multilab registered replication of the ego-depletion effect provide evidence that, if there is any effect, it is close to zero. ... Although the current analysis provides robust evidence that questions the strength of the ego-depletion effect and its replicability, it may be premature to reject the ego-depletion effect altogether based on these data alone."
Maybe Baumeister's protocol was fundamentally flawed, but the counter-argument from Hagger et al. does not convince me. I wasn't thrilled with Baumeister's claims when they came out, but now I am somehow even less thrilled with the claims of Hagger et al., and I absolutely don't trust Giancotti's assessment. I could believe that Hagger executed Baumeister's protocol correctly, but I can't believe Giancotti has a grasp of what scientific claims "should" be "believed."
I think that can be subtly confused by people thinking you can't get better at self control with practice? That is, I would think a deliberate practice of doing more and more self control every day should build up your ability to do more self control. And it would be easy to think that that means you have a stamina for self control that depletes in the same way that aerobic fitness can work. But, those don't necessarily follow each other.