This sort of model-free projection is basically useless. It's like the people who predicted that "Moore's law" improvements were over because clock rates were maxing out, but missed out on the parallelism that made GPUs possible.
It isn't like "longevity gains" are some sort of spontaneous process powered by historical inevitability. All the past gains came from people identifying and mitigating problems, and all the future gains will come from similar efforts. These efforts, which have yet to take place, obviously won't show up in the trend data.
pedalpete · 1h ago
I think the "slowly then all at once" theory can be applied here, as well as an "S" curve.
It is unlikely any researcher looking at longevity in the 1920s would have predicted the impact of medical advances of the next 40 years.
Multiple converging technologies suggest we could be at an inflection point again.
Personally, we work in enhancing the restorative function of sleep with early research showing positive impacts in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
There is a theory that if we can slow the natural decline of sleep's restorative function, we slow age related metabolic function, cognitive decline, and immune system.
My impression was that my mom's Parkinson's disease was disrupting her ability to sleep. More sleep was clearly better, and pretty hard to come by.
ggm · 1h ago
Just here to point out the US lags on life expectancy by a huge amount, compared to OECD/G8 economies with socialised health care and better controls on pollution, additives and education.
Legend2440 · 1h ago
I’m willing to bet that most of the difference comes from obesity rates.
40% of Americans are obese, which massively increases your risk of life-shortening conditions like heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc.
bryanlarsen · 1h ago
In which case the difference between the US and Europe should narrow as America goes on Ozempic and friends, and lifespan increase should accelerate in the US, making the article look wrong.
Legend2440 · 1h ago
I guess we’ll find out over the next decade or two!
That said, I’m not sure we’d hit 100 even if everyone was in perfect shape. Most healthy people still die in their 80s or 90s.
maxerickson · 52m ago
By way of population density, the US ends up doing better on lots of pollution metrics.
Plus no diesel fetish.
throwawayoldie · 1h ago
It may be a huge amount, but in the next few years it's only going to get huger.
It isn't like "longevity gains" are some sort of spontaneous process powered by historical inevitability. All the past gains came from people identifying and mitigating problems, and all the future gains will come from similar efforts. These efforts, which have yet to take place, obviously won't show up in the trend data.
It is unlikely any researcher looking at longevity in the 1920s would have predicted the impact of medical advances of the next 40 years.
Multiple converging technologies suggest we could be at an inflection point again.
Personally, we work in enhancing the restorative function of sleep with early research showing positive impacts in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
There is a theory that if we can slow the natural decline of sleep's restorative function, we slow age related metabolic function, cognitive decline, and immune system.
More details and links to research at https://affectablesleep.com
40% of Americans are obese, which massively increases your risk of life-shortening conditions like heart disease, cancer, diabetes, etc.
That said, I’m not sure we’d hit 100 even if everyone was in perfect shape. Most healthy people still die in their 80s or 90s.
Plus no diesel fetish.