Benefits: Software companies will get back to that feature request board and stop just duck taping AI to everything with little tangible benefit to end users.
asdff · 58m ago
Weird how people are saying bubble now and not when there was a far larger selloff between feb-april this year.
strange_quark · 51m ago
People were definitely saying bubble earlier this year, but I think the market could excuse the selloff by attributing it to DeepSeek and "Liberation Day"; the AI hype machine was still in overdrive. For some reason the market has decided not to care about tariffs anymore, but GPT-5 being mid has really put the kabosh on the whole AGI schtick.
nomel · 35m ago
> but GPT-5 being mid has really put the kabosh on the whole AGI schtick.
I don't think any significant conclusion, for the future of AI/possibility of AGI, should be made by looking at a single model/company.
strange_quark · 26m ago
I'm not even making predictions on whether AGI is possible or not, but the valuations of these companies hinges on AI being able to replace a large portion of human labor. I think we are teetering on the edge of a huge bubble pop unless some other company releases something that's not just another chatbot that does slightly better on some benchmarks that nobody outside of the industry has ever heard of.
What I'm trying to say is that the stock market mostly runs on vibes at this point. And when you have the CEO of the leading model company hyping up a release people have been anticipating for 2 years by tweeting out images of the death star, saying that it made him feel useless, etc. etc., and then it turns out to be a cost-cutting exercise and causes a massive uproar amongst its most loyal users, I think the market is going to adjust to reflect the bad vibes.
s1mplicissimus · 51m ago
I said bubble since gpt4 was hyped like the invention of bread, but I guess I'm not important enough
mgh2 · 1h ago
The unpredictable thing about bubbles is that you never know when it is gonna pop or the irrationality of the masses, until then it is a hot potato game.
AIPedant · 1h ago
This is true - the most compelling evidence we are in a bubble is not the content of this story (maybe it's just a day in the markets) but the triviality of the cause for hand-wringing. A somewhat disappointing product release from a single company should not strike investor dread across the entire sector. The tenor of the conversation changed dramatically over the weekend because bubbles are very thin and pop quickly.
That said, "GPT-5 will not be any better than competitors' products, demonstrating OpenAI was bluffing about AGI and destroying investor exuberance" was a very specific prediction made by (for example) Gary Marcus.
s1mplicissimus · 50m ago
which makes it really annoying in the sense that I cannot simply short the company, because I don't know when their pants will drop :/
I don't think any significant conclusion, for the future of AI/possibility of AGI, should be made by looking at a single model/company.
What I'm trying to say is that the stock market mostly runs on vibes at this point. And when you have the CEO of the leading model company hyping up a release people have been anticipating for 2 years by tweeting out images of the death star, saying that it made him feel useless, etc. etc., and then it turns out to be a cost-cutting exercise and causes a massive uproar amongst its most loyal users, I think the market is going to adjust to reflect the bad vibes.
That said, "GPT-5 will not be any better than competitors' products, demonstrating OpenAI was bluffing about AGI and destroying investor exuberance" was a very specific prediction made by (for example) Gary Marcus.
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