Looks like Meta just hit the llama of diminishing marginal returns. When even $72 billion can’t buy breakthrough progress, you know the curve’s gone flat.
RiDiracTid · 22m ago
It confirms my understanding that lab culture and researcher quality is incredibly incredibly important in training a good model, and while Meta seems to have the money to hire the latter, there's just something rotten that makes them unable to execute well.
This gwern comment seems to describe the situation well:
> FB is buying data from the same places everyone else does, like Scale (which we know from anecdotes like when Scale delivered FB a bunch of blatantly-ChatGPT-written 'human rating data' and FB was displeased), and was using datasets like books3 that are reasonable quality. The reported hardware efficiency numbers have never been impressive, they haven't really innovated in architecture or training method (even the co-distillation for Llama-4 is not new, eg. ERNIE was doing that like 3 years ago), and insider rumors/gossip don't indicate good things about the quality of the research culture. (It's a stark contrast to things like Jeff Dean overseeing a big overhaul to ensure bit-identical reproducibility of runs and Google apparently getting multi-datacenter training working by emphasizing TPU interconnect.) So my guess is that if it's bad, it's not any one single thing like 'we trained for too few tokens' or 'some of our purchased data was shite': it's just everything in the pipeline being a bit mediocre and it multiplying out to a bad end-product which is less than the sum of its parts.
> Remember Karpathy's warning: "neural nets want to work". You can screw things up and the neural nets will still work, they will just be 1% worse than they should be. If you don't have a research culture which is rigorous about methodology or where people just have good enough taste/intuition to always do the right thing, you'll settle for whatever seems to work... (Especially if you are not going above and beyond to ensure your metrics aren't fooling yourself.) Now have a 1% penalty on everything, from architecture to compute throughput to data quality to hyperparameters to debugging implementation issues, and you wind up with a model which is already obsolete on release with no place on the Pareto frontier and so gets 0% use.
This gwern comment seems to describe the situation well:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uPi2YppTEnzKG3nXD/nathan-hel...
> FB is buying data from the same places everyone else does, like Scale (which we know from anecdotes like when Scale delivered FB a bunch of blatantly-ChatGPT-written 'human rating data' and FB was displeased), and was using datasets like books3 that are reasonable quality. The reported hardware efficiency numbers have never been impressive, they haven't really innovated in architecture or training method (even the co-distillation for Llama-4 is not new, eg. ERNIE was doing that like 3 years ago), and insider rumors/gossip don't indicate good things about the quality of the research culture. (It's a stark contrast to things like Jeff Dean overseeing a big overhaul to ensure bit-identical reproducibility of runs and Google apparently getting multi-datacenter training working by emphasizing TPU interconnect.) So my guess is that if it's bad, it's not any one single thing like 'we trained for too few tokens' or 'some of our purchased data was shite': it's just everything in the pipeline being a bit mediocre and it multiplying out to a bad end-product which is less than the sum of its parts.
> Remember Karpathy's warning: "neural nets want to work". You can screw things up and the neural nets will still work, they will just be 1% worse than they should be. If you don't have a research culture which is rigorous about methodology or where people just have good enough taste/intuition to always do the right thing, you'll settle for whatever seems to work... (Especially if you are not going above and beyond to ensure your metrics aren't fooling yourself.) Now have a 1% penalty on everything, from architecture to compute throughput to data quality to hyperparameters to debugging implementation issues, and you wind up with a model which is already obsolete on release with no place on the Pareto frontier and so gets 0% use.