U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

511 mattcollins 1372 6/22/2025, 12:00:16 AM bbc.co.uk ↗

Comments (1372)

cakealert · 20m ago
Iran never had the deterrent North Korea had. And by having a theocracy they heavily skewed any threat calculus against themselves.

What they were doing, inching towards nukes, was a horrible move. In their position, you either sprint covertly and not play at all.

I suspect that after their nuclear program was discovered and set back they fell victim to the sunk cost fallacy and convinced themselves they could repurpose it as leverage. But they are a theocratic regime and their messaging (whether genuine or not) made that a non-viable option in reality.

This is probably what happens when your government isn't very competent and you don't have mathematicians doing game theoretic simulations for you? Theocracy with nukes screams nuke them first if you can't destroy their capability by other means. What happened today likely saved millions of Iranian lives.

simonh · 2m ago
It's not so much them being a theocracy IMHO. It's that they believe they have a religious duty to destroy the state of Israel.

Put those Israeli shoes on. There's a state armed with ballistic missiles in easy range of you, they have the facilities necessary to enrich weapons grade Uranium, recently acquired more advanced centrifuges, they have the uranium already enriched far beyond what's necessary for civilian use, they have far more of it than they credibly need for such civilian use, and they believe god has ordered them to destroy you.

How well would you sleep at night?

jandrewrogers · 1m ago
North Korea is a Chinese client state. As a general rule, client states are treated as extensions of the countries that control them. Iran is not a client state.
alkyon · 9m ago
If anything, the lack of competence is on the other side.

Was enriched uranium destroyed? I doubt it.

Have they even "obliterated" Fordow site buried 90 m deep inside the mountain? I have serious doubts.

Iran's nuclear program was set back some months if anything.

birn559 · 2m ago
Care to elaborate? A random person doubting things doesn't help other people or bringing a discussion forward.
nmca · 6m ago
How do you purport to know this?
coffeebeqn · 2m ago
The layout of Fordow from what we’ve seen is not a single site. Depending on how many runs they did maybe it is all but destroyed or maybe it’s 1/3 destroyed. I’m sure Israel’s intelligence on it is pretty accurate (probably not public at this point)
tptacek · 5h ago
I think Netanyahu belongs in prison, and Trump, the less said the better, but: couldn't have happened to a nicer unauthorized weapons-grade uranium enrichment facility dug into the side of a mountain hours outside of population centers.

If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading up on the GBU-57 "bunker buster" bomb, because it is some Merrie Melodies Acme brand munitions. It's deliberately as heavy as they can make a bomb, not with explosives but just with mass. They should have shaped it like a giant piano.

rich_sasha · 8m ago
> unauthorized

It's a weird one. I don't disagree with your post, still, what is "approved" nukes? A bunch of countries got them, then decided that no one else is allowed them. Then Israel also got them, also "unauthorized", but countries who don't mind pretend they don't know.

In the end there is no authorized and unauthorized nukes, only a calculus of power.

JohnBooty · 1m ago
I don't know that it's the best or fairest situation, but I do know I like it better than "every country is allowed to have nukes."
reissbaker · 4m ago
Israel isn't even close to the most recent country that got nukes (and they never signed the non-proliferation treaty) so I'm not sure why you have beef with them in particular.
tptacek · 6m ago
Correct. That is how sovereign states relate to each other, though.
hearsathought · 3h ago
> I think Netanyahu belongs in prison

Didn't Netanyahu perjure himself to congress about iraq's wmds two decades? Isn't that grounds for arrest? It's amazing how our media never mentions that netanyahu is a habitual liar when they push netanyahu's iran's wmds spiel.

At this point our media companies are israel's PR department. Fox news should be banned like RT for being a foreign mouthpiece.

benrutter · 31m ago
> Isn't that grounds for arrest?

Maybe, but worth saying the ICC have issued a warrant for Netanyahu for war crimes. The reason he hasn't been arrested is:

- The ICC is just a court, not a police department. Only countries have those, and while Netanyahu is in Israel, his own police probably won't arrest him.

- Authoritarian governments like Trump, Orban, Putin are actively undermining the ICC, which makes enforcement even less likely.

D-Coder · 1h ago
"Perjure"? Was he testifying under oath?
NekkoDroid · 1h ago
> Fox news should be banned like RT for being a foreign mouthpiece.

You forget that it is also US state media. Republicans would be banning their own version of RT.

yencabulator · 2h ago
Trump sanctioned ICC judges after ICC issued a warrant for Netanyahu. It's a lot more than just PR.
ImJamal · 2h ago
I don't know what Netanyahu said so he may have perjured himself, but Iraq technically had WMD. They weren't nukes, but the chemical variety and most of them weren't stored properly.
motorest · 21m ago
I don't know who is downvoting PP but here's Wikipedia's article on Iraq WMDs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destr...

rsingel · 19m ago
They had jack. Zero. Nada.

It was ginned up BS that led to the worst foreign policy blunder in 100 years, directly creating ISIS, deaths of 500k Iraqis and kicking off the migrant crisis.

stickfigure · 4m ago
The Kurds would beg to differ.
idiotsecant · 22m ago
Sure glad we spent a generation of lives and treasure, and maybe the golden years of the American hegemony on that boondoggle to take care of a few crappy chemical weapons in some dusty sand pit of a country.
eastbound · 26m ago
Chemicals are usually less efficient than normal bombs. They’re too local. You can do the same with explosives. “Iraq had explosives.”
motorest · 5m ago
If you read up on Iraq's history of WMDs, the relevance of Iraq's chemical and biological weapons was that Saddam's regime had already a long history of developing and using these types of weapons both against neighbors and its own civilians. When Saddam decided to invade and annex Kuwait, half the world united to act, drive him out, and eliminate Iraq's WMD programmes. After the first gulf war, the UN was in charge of verifying that Saddam's regime destroyed it's existing stockpile and WMD programmes, but Saddam not only actively prevented the UN from doing any form of verificarion but also outright antagonized the UN.

It was with this backdrop that the "Iraq has WMDs" campaign managed to get traction. If you learn history and pay attention to the events, you'll quickly understand that Saddam's antagonism and mockery of the whole UN institution, specially when they self-idolated, was an easy sell even with weak evidence. Making this out to be a simple matter exclusively and bounded to the existence of WMDs is naive and outright ignorant.

Beefin · 30m ago
israel is the tip of the spear gathering intelligence and preventing terrorism from entering your doorstep - you think the relationship is one-sided? the world relies on their intelligence for counter terrorism.
idiotsecant · 24m ago
If Israel wasn't there, there would be terrorists on my doorstep? That's your actual, honest claim here?
fakedang · 17m ago
Be the cause of the terrorism, then talk of how you're the "tip of the spear" in preventing terrorism. You'd need to be special to be that kind of deluded.

With these strikes, it seems more like Israel has ample intelligence on the US government than it has on the Middle East, since even DNI concurred that there was no proof of WMDs.

mrtksn · 2h ago
Let’s hope that the destruction of facilities comes with the regime change in Iran. otherwise it may have just given a brief pause and further escalation.

If the regime survives, now Iranian people have a very good reasons to ignore its shortcomings and tyranny and Do a proper sacrifice. It’s a natural resources rich nation of 90 million people. If they want to get serious, they can get serious.

riffraff · 41m ago
Can you think of a regime that was bombed by foreigners and quickly fell?

I cannot. Ground occupation, yes. But afaict bombing just reinforces the regime.

YZF · 24m ago
I don't think we have a historical precedence to what is happening here. The closest would be Israel's attack on Hezbollah which literally collapsed and led to the collapse of the Syrian regime as well.

The Iranian regime is very centralized and with Israel and the USA having air superiority and having penetrated it completely from an intelligence perspective (see Israel's perfect knowledge of the whereabouts of the previous chief of staff and the newly appointed chief of staff) it's going to be very hard for it to survive if a decision is made to remove it. There are a handful of key people that once gone there is not going to be any continuity.

The current regime is allowed to continue because of fear of chaos if it is removed, not because there isn't a capability to remove it.

coffeebeqn · 4m ago
Not necessarily but this is also not the end of the campaign. If Israel and US take out their ultimate bargaining chip and have air supremacy then the room to maneuver for the ayatollah is quite small. What happens next inside Iran is anyone’s guess. There have been multiple waves of very large protests in the past five years. What’s stopping mossad from delivering rifles to them from Syria or an airdrop at this point of escalation
necklesspen · 18m ago
It didn't literally cause a regime change but the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia was essentially the last nail in the coffin for the Milosevic regime.

The key element is where the will of the people points - Milosevic was already unpopular and the bombing further united the people against him.

The few Iranians I know are against the regime, but I don't know how the wider picture looks.

fakedang · 1m ago
According to my Iranian friends (even the most hardline Ayatollah haters), most Iranians hate the regime, but they'll rally behind them if boots land on the ground.

Many of them still look at the Iran-Iraq war with a shade of Iranian patriotism (not sure there's a word to capture that actual feeling of sad memories of losing family members, coupled with a patriotic sense of duty).

The younger generation, not so much, since they didn't have to live through that hell.

llmthrow103 · 1h ago
You think America can occupy a country as big land-wise as Iran with a population approaching 100 million and an actual military?

This is more likely to be the end of the American empire than an actual change in Iran.

YZF · 14m ago
The US has no desire or intent to occupy Iran. It would take a year just to move enough forces to even contemplate it. Iran is mountainous which makes this a lot harder than Iraq.

It is also completely unnecessary. There are two options. Either the current regime makes a "deal" or it's going to get crippled to the point of irrelevance or removed.

Iran and Iraq are very different. Different culture, people and history. It's also worth remembering Iran is not homogeneous, only 61% of the population are Persians. There are Azeri, there are Kurds and various other ethnic/region minorities.

Iran is extremely vulnerable. It has internal issues, constantly oppressing/suppressing its people. Its economy is in terrible shape. Most of its economic engine can be easily taken out (its main oil terminals). The bulk of its military can be destroyed from the air, it has little defensive or offensive capability. They know it.

Tika2234 · 39m ago
It is ending a bit like Ming dynasty and Rome towards the end. Corruptions rife everywhere. Leaders try to be competent and yet ended making more mess. You can already see China is doing 5nm. Best camera phone is Huawei. Best EV in both variants models and quality and total volume sales, BYD. Tesla get decimated. Even AI China is on par. In terms of talents, you can see how well Americans read and count. In 30 years time, you need to learn Chinese and maybe Russian. I dont see America will be much viable pass the next 30 years. If you get a Dem prez, the country will be saturated with illegals. If you get JD, debrs will spiral out of control while opening a warfront in the middle east with Iran and China. This is basically empire ending scenario.
idiotsecant · 18m ago
>If you get a Dem prez, the country will be saturated with illegals

Is this, in your mind, how empires end? I'm not sure if you've cracked a history book in a while, but immigrants built this country. We are a country of immigrants. We win when we get the hardest working, most entrepreneurial, boldest and smartest people to come here. Immigrants are no couch potatoes - on average they work harder than American born citizens do by an order of magnitude for way less pay.

nirav72 · 9m ago
Don’t think the current guy in the white house is much into nation building. Also after Iraq and 20 years wasted in Afghanistan - Americans are less likely to care about rebuilding a country.
djfivyvusn · 1h ago
At least 60% of the 90 million are closet Christians or atheists in a country where you get the death penalty for renouncing islam.

You think we need to occupy them? This isn't Iraq.

soganess · 43m ago
60%? Serious citation needed. The largest Christian population in Iran are Armenians. There are far fewer than 1 million Armenians in Iran. So unless you have evidence for the claim that there are 50+ million atheists in Iran, the number just defies belief.

I would be shocked if there were 50 million atheists in America. Maybe if you included people who are spiritual but do not believe directly in a god. Maybe I could accept it then, but at that point, you are stretching the definition of 'atheist' to its breaking point.

throw72838474 · 24m ago
Trump thinks regime change will happen instantly and easily. Maybe he has secret source front NSA and CIA, who track private messages of Iranians! 60% of Iranians are secret christians. 38% are closeted gays!

A few bombs, everyone comes out of closet, unconditional surrender, democracy, live happily ever after... Sounds like American movie...

jordanb · 1h ago
Well in that case I'm sure they're totally cool with us bombing them and look forward to being greeted as liberators.
adgjlsfhk1 · 53m ago
I'm pretty sure that's what the bush crowd was saying about Iraq too
serf · 38m ago
it wasn't the 'Bush crowd'; it was everyone but a few dissenting critical journalists.[0][1]

war and conflict are almost always bipartisan to some degree.

[0]: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-reporting-team-that-g_n_9... [1]: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iraq/journalism-press-failed-...

Tika2234 · 35m ago
America allies, Saudi head chop more than Iran. And there are 100K Jews in Iran and they get into parliament too. Show me that in Israel. You got confused with Saudi and Pakistan. Dont think 60% there Christian or atheist there. Westrrn media is always BS. They got so many wrongs since 2 deacdes ago, I read way less western stuff these days. Otherwise my whole world view looks like Marvel MCU and Tom Cruise with Arnie running around with guns.
reissbaker · 28m ago
There many Jews in parliament in Israel!

(If you mean Muslims, or Arabs, there are plenty of those in the Israeli parliament too.)

idiotsecant · 16m ago
It's like there's an echo from every other stupid poll-raising middle east adventure we've ever gotten into.

This is a stupid war being waged by idiots against idiots . Unfortunately none of those idiots calling the shots will die, it'll be a bunch of kids who just made the mistake of not being rich and powerful enough.

WaxProlix · 1h ago
Even if the regime doesn't survive, what's our track record in Iranian regime change like? What are the chances people there swallow their pride and roll over? If anything, Khomeini is probably a moderate compared to a lot of what we could end up with after 'regime change' (lol)
jvm___ · 1h ago
What are the chances that the peaceful, think it through, be reasonable crowd is ready to organize the next regime. Or maybe the hotheads with guns are ready to shoot first aim later.

Perhaps forcing regime changes on other countries shouldn't be a quick decision.

devcpp · 53m ago
Saying "Khomeini" on current day Iran casts a large doubt on how much you know on the topic.
mrtksn · 1h ago
I guess it’s all about how it’s handled afterwards. Germany and Japan have become huge US allies after some proper bombings.

Just recently Trump tried to troll the Germany’s leader for it and only got a “Thank you for defeating us”.

The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one and a lot of people have grievances with it but the problem is, this is about Israel and they are not any better and didn’t stand at a higher moral ground with their illegal occupation and actions that many consider genocidal.

yongjik · 1h ago
> some proper bombings

and a war that killed 400,000 Americans.

You want to repeat that history?

theonething · 50m ago
Here's some history I don't want to repeat:

1939, Nazi Germany starts fucking around and nobody does anything about it and then we have WWII on our hands.

You've totally missed the point. It's precisely because we didn't "properly" bomb Germany to stop that first invasion of Poland, that WWII happened and we lost 400,000 Americans, 6 million Jews etc.

No comments yet

bigyabai · 1h ago
> The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one

Relative to their last, America-backed regime? I don't think you're looking at this from an Iranian perspective at all.

simonh · 1h ago
The regime is spectacularly unpopular with the majority of Iranians.
SllX · 14m ago
I get this a lot from a guy I do trust, and his old man is an Iranian immigrant, but I also recognize my sources are very biased against the regime.

Is there any good reporting out there or sentiment analysis that can show this? Or is it all word of mouth on the Internet? It's okay if there is nothing, but I'd feel a lot better if there was something substantial to back this up too.

SauciestGNU · 1h ago
I would be very interested in hearing an Iranian perspective on how daily life changed for people when the Islamic Republic deposed Pahlavi.
mrtksn · 1h ago
You can tell its a shitty one when a resource rich nation don’t prosper.
catlifeonmars · 52m ago
The number of resource rich nations that do prosper are few and far between. It’s more the exception than the rule.
petre · 45m ago
Sure. It's nice to hope though. The Iranian establishment is even more rabid now.
Tika2234 · 43m ago
Why there is regime change there? You are watching fake news projected by your own government for your bubble. The regime now is way stronger. Their economy now is also significantly bigger and stronger (hint: China). A fresh grad there can find job in less than 2 weeks. Try that in UK or NY...even 6mths would be atough endevour.
reissbaker · 24m ago
Actually, Iran's GDP peaked in 2012 and is currently 30% lower than that peak. Nice try though.
ReptileMan · 33m ago
Iran has smaller gdp than israel and 12 times it's population. They are a delusional dwarf, and they beat and blind women that refuse to wear headscarf. So I wouldn't mind some dead and crippled clergy and IRGC as long as there are no boots on the ground. Just kill the elites until the population sorts the thing themselves.
CommanderData · 1h ago
Regime change is what the US and Israel has been doing for the last 40 years in the middle east.

That is literally the ultimate ambition of this war.

There's a long list of middle eastern countries where we've installed our stooges.

YZF · 9m ago
Israel hasn't really engaged in regime change. If anything the opposite. There was a single failed attempt to get the Christians into power in Lebanon. But mostly sort of the devil I know. We have Hussein in Jordan. We had Assad in Syria. Egypt had its own turmoils but not much Israeli involvement. The PA and Hamas were also viewed as a stabler alternative to chaos. Saudi and the emirates pretty stable. Turkey (not quite middle east but whatever) also have their internal turmoil. Iran has been stable as well.
mahkeiro · 51m ago
They don’t care about the regime, they only want it to be aligned with the US and Israel. The Saudi absolute monarchy regime (something that is way worst than the Iranian one) that is directly coming from middle ages, doesn’t get the same journalistic treatment in the US. Women rights in Iran are lightyears ahead of what is happening in Saudi Arabia. But who cares? Talking about Iran regime change only is pure hypocrisy when your best friend in the region can kill anyone by just deciding it.
reissbaker · 20m ago
Actually, Saudi Arabia doesn't beat woman to death for not wearing a hijab (although they're not great either). Saudi is ranked 56 on the Gender Inequality Index, whereas Iran is 113. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_Inequality_Index
jordanb · 1h ago
I'm sure if we keep trying we'll get it right eventually.
bravesoul2 · 41m ago
The plan is working as intended I think. They are not optimising for humanity.
lazide · 59m ago
Bombings will continue until morale improves?
sodality2 · 5h ago
Let’s hope whatever intel that says Iran really does have nukes is true, given its propensity as a scapegoat for previous wars. Don’t forget that less than 2 months ago, senior intelligence officials said conclusively Iran was not close to having nuclear weapons.

Edit: 3 months, and source: https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2...

1659447091 · 4h ago
Another source, from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence[0]

On that page you can download an unclassified 2025 Annual Threat Assessment [pdf] where on page 26 it states:

>> We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so. In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decisionmaking apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decisionmaker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons.

I also think there is more reading in there that may interest people here.

[0] https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/...

[pdf] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-202...

tripletao · 2h ago
Leaving aside the accuracy of this claim, "building a weapon" here means "taking the uranium they've already enriched almost to weapons-grade, and completing final assembly into a working device".

The nuclear physicists got the glory for the Manhattan Project, but the enrichment was the vast majority of the time and cost[1]. Similar ratios apply today. There is zero question that Iran's government is spending a significant fraction of its GDP on enrichment activity that would be economically absurd except as a step towards nuclear weapons--they acknowledge it proudly!

That doesn't mean these strikes were necessarily a good idea. There's no question that Iran was working actively towards a bomb though, even if "building a weapon" gets redefined narrowly to exclude almost all the actual effort.

1. https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/05/17/the-price-of-the-...

skissane · 1h ago
I think a good way of explaining what the Iranian government has been doing, is actively working on reducing breakout time without actually making the breakout decision

"Breakout time" is how long it takes a country between the political decision to build a nuclear weapon, and actually having one which is militarily usable

1659447091 · 1h ago
> "building a weapon" here means "taking the uranium they've already enriched almost to weapons-grade, and completing final assembly into a working device".

Agreed. However, taking into account the full statement (provided by the collective U.S. Intelligence Services) to include the parts about: Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003 and that he has final say in the matter, says they were not working actively towards a bomb.

But there was growing advocation for doing so. Now they have been emboldened further and been given fuel to advocate restarting the program. If Khamenei had so far kept the pro-nuke elements of the regime at bay, this strike may force the very thing that foreign Intelligence roped us into "stopping".

I am not saying they did not have the means; they will rebuild the means, and now they will have the motivation as well as know-how in a way that will be more difficult to stop.

jack_h · 6m ago
So it seems that due to imprecise language people disagree on the exact place of the red line the US (and Israel) were drawing. The post you responded to was indicating that the red line was, as a sibling comment mentioned, the breakout time from political decision to working nuclear weapon. Many other people, yourself included, seem to consider the red line to be the political decision itself. This red line now may be crossed in response to our first strike after their violation of the breakout time red line. If we were successful it seems as though the message is clear, we will use overwhelming military force to prevent them from having a nuclear weapon. So even if the political decision gets made to build one, any attempt to restart the process - which isn't exactly stealthy - will be met with similar force. If we failed though, then we might get to see a nuclear weapon being used in modern times.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
“Intelligence community” can be wrong. It’s not as if they are infallible.
1659447091 · 31m ago
Sure, but so can foreign Intelligence that the America First Trump team decided was way better than US Intelligence that tax payers are paying obscene amounts for. So, I guess we just pick which ever one fits what we find more important to listen to.

This stinks of Iraq & WMD. Which the U.S. Intelligence made drastic changes to prevent happening again.

Only now we were on the side of saying there is no proof it was actively being worked on, and the person/state with "proof" also happens to be the state that has been bitterly opposed to Iran and started launching unprovoked missiles. That state also knows how to get what it wants from this administration and suddenly we go from, there is no proof they are doing nefarious things with their program, to they are about nuke us all if we don't do something; all in a matter of weeks.

firesteelrain · 20m ago
The alternative was to do nothing , let them continue the obvious nuclear weapon nation program. I am surprised we hadn’t attacked them earlier given what they did to our troops in Iraq with EFPs or Ukraine with the Shahed drones.
kadoban · 49m ago
Idiot politicians can be wrong too. Especially when they don't give a shit if they're correct.
econ · 1h ago
Bibi has repeatedly informed us the bomb would be ready in the next few months for 23 years or so.

Saddam also had WMDs, we just don't know where.

Etc

nsingh2 · 1h ago
He's been saying this since 1992, so 33 years so far.
econ · 53m ago
What is the term for political leaders who fill their speeches with a Boogeyman rather than doing their job? I feel there should be a term for it. Ideally one that describes them in pairs. Like a boogey marriage.
jiggawatts · 1h ago
"Will be done in 'x' months" vs "Could be ready within 'x' months" are distinct statements.

My project managers often ask how long a project would take. I might say something like "two weeks after we're approved to start".

The PMs will wait a few months, approve the project, and then look flabbergasted when it is not instantaneously completed! "But you had all this time! Months ago you said it would take weeks!"

dj_gitmo · 5h ago
If they thought Iran had nukes they wouldn’t be attacking them. Nobody thinks Iran had a nuclear weapon, or that they are even trying that hard to get one.
trebligdivad · 5h ago
I don't understand this argument; why would you have a large, acknowledged, underground nuclear purification unit if it wasn't for bombs? Why wouldn't you cooperate with their regular IAEA inspection if it wasn't for bombs?
friendlyasparag · 5h ago
They might be making the bombs, but once they are made (and the delivery mechanism exists), then they wouldn’t be attacked for fear of nuclear retaliation.

The past two-ish decades has made it clear that nuclear weapons are the only defense against an aggressive power arbitrarily invading.

skissane · 1h ago
> then they wouldn’t be attacked for fear of nuclear retaliation

Even supposing Iran developed a nuclear weapon, their ability to engage in nuclear retaliation depends on (a) the number of warheads, (b) the available delivery mechanisms

An Iran which had only a handful of warheads, and rather limited delivery mechanisms (few or no ICBMs, no SLBMs, no long-range bomber capability) might find its ability to engage in nuclear retaliation against the US extremely limited

Even attempting to use nuclear weapons against Israel or regional US allies, there would be a massive attempt by Israel/US/allies to intercept any nuclear armed missile before it reached its destination

People argued missile defence (as in Reagan's "Star Wars") would never work against the Soviets because they could always just overwhelm it given the superabundance of warheads and delivery systems they had. The same logic does not apply to Iran, because even if it did build a nuke, initially it would only have a handful. Only if they were allowed to build out their nuclear arsenal and delivery systems without intervention, over an extended period, might that eventually come true.

jhanschoo · 1h ago
My understanding is that the prospect of nuclear retaliation against hawkish US allies can contribute greatly to peace in the region.
stogot · 1h ago
This is what I’d expect Iran to do instead of ICBM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuclear_device

But they do have ballistic missiles and can hit US allies

ra0x3 · 4h ago
This was my thinking as well. Iran sending a nuke at anyone effectively is the end of Iran (and many of its people). Something something…mutually assured destruction (e.g., North Korea has nukes, makes threats, doesn’t use them)
crystal_revenge · 2h ago
Unfortunately MAD in the classic sense doesn't apply here. Yes if Iran launched a nuke at Israel, or vice versa, and the other had nuclear capabilities, they would destroy each other, but the MAD scenario between the USSR and the United States doesn't really play out here.

The biggest global risk in this case would be that tactical nukes would be back on the menu which would immediately change the face of modern warfare.

jordanb · 57m ago
I feel like it's been demonstrated that if Israel orders the United States to destroy the world on its behalf, the United States will do it.
lostlogin · 51m ago
So Iran is a special case compared to every other country getting them?
card_zero · 4h ago
So the reason to make an exception to the Non-Proliferation Treaty just for the giant tyrannical fundamentalist state is, what, because otherwise they might get insecure and anxious?

OK, they never signed up to it, but still.

WaxProlix · 2h ago
Are you referring to Israel here, who stole the recipe from their closest 'ally' and has made not one or two but hundreds of nukes outside of the NPT?
lostlogin · 50m ago
Allegedly.
amanaplanacanal · 2h ago
We made an exception for Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.
coredog64 · 2h ago
North Korea left the NPT, Israel never signed it.
coredog64 · 2h ago
The prior government did sign it and there’s very good reason to hold successor states to the treaties signed before they existed.
lostlogin · 48m ago
What about the agreement to protect Ukraine if they gave up the nuclear weapons?

Trusting the US or any agreement with it would be foolish.

Workaccount2 · 3h ago
The problem is that these people are religiously unhinged. They are executing Gods will with God on their side.
crystal_revenge · 2h ago
Ted Cruz is explicitly advocating that Christians are biblically commanded to defend the modern day state of Israel, and that this alone justifies our attack on Iran.
pmarreck · 1h ago
Or just because they tried to assassinate Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/08/donald-trump-iran-a...

Ted Cruz can blather whatever he wants (and he also footnoted it to say it was only HIS belief), but only Iran has holy-text justification for the destruction of all Jews, mentioned numerous times in authenticated Hadiths (just search them for "The last hour will not come")

yencabulator · 2h ago
Unlike the American evangelicals and the Israeli?
lostlogin · 48m ago
Are you referring to Iran or Israel?
adgjlsfhk1 · 43m ago
one of the scariest parts of the current US administration is that there is a fairly strong evangelical Christian belief that a massive (possibly nuclear) war in Israel is a necessary precursor to the 2nd coming.
bigyabai · 2h ago
In the past 24 hours alone, all 3 parties in this conflict have attributed their success to God. You genuinely, honestly have to be more specific in your comment because not a single involved participant is a fully secular country.

So, with that being said - which nuclear-obsessive theocracy do you support?

simonh · 36m ago
The reason there is a conflict at all is that the Iranian regime believes it is their religious duty to destroy the state of Israel. This is why they arm any group willing and able to attack Israel, and will continue to do so, and they cannot be negotiated with on this because they see it as a religious imperative.

Conversely there is no religious reason for anyone in Israel or the US to attack Iran, independently of the belief that they should defend Israel.

unyttigfjelltol · 4h ago
Add to that, its "deterrence" arsenal of intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) are credible militarily only as nuclear delivery systems. For example, the "Khaybar Breaker" rocket (English meaning), referring to a destruction of an historic Jewish stronghold, leaving little to imagination, when equiped with conventional warheads are simply an expensive way to ruin hospital wings. But, when you merge heavy rockets with diligent production of precursors of nuclear weapons, not only is that work toward military use of a nuclear weapon-- it creates a powerful inertia toward actually completing that work, from two directions, lest your very expensive work prove pointless. The current war is vividly demonstrating that IRBM's are not deterrent unless (a) impossibly numerous or (b) unconventionally armed. A threshold IRBM threat makes it more, not less, likely to provoke a first strike against it, as has occurred.
Animats · 2h ago
Also note that Iran does have an ICBM of sorts. They have a space launch vehicle, capable of putting maybe 600kg in orbit. Anything that can achieve orbit can also be used as an ICBM. The US tends to operate on the assumption that it can bomb abroad without return fire. That may have just changed. The US has never attacked anybody with significant missile capability before.

The symbolic value of Iran hitting a target in the US, even with only a small conventional warhead, would be considerable. Washington, D.C. has some drone and missile defenses. But the rest of the east coast is not protected much.

Iran could also attack the US with drones launched from a small ship off the US east coast. Roughly the same technique Ukraine just used on Russia, using some small expendable ship instead of a trailer.

.

roncesvalles · 1h ago
>The symbolic value of Iran hitting a target in the US, even with only a small conventional warhead, would be considerable.

This would mean complete suicide for Iran. The US military basically exists to inflict unimaginable hurt on anyone who does this. Not to mention, an attack on the US is an attack on NATO.

bjoli · 13m ago
There are loads of NATO countries that will not assist the US in this case because NATO is a defensive alliance not a "this country responded my armed aggression, let's strike them" alliance.
CamperBob2 · 31m ago
The symbolic value of Iran hitting a target in the US, even with only a small conventional warhead, would be considerable

Iran would definitely possess nuclear weapons after doing something like that. The only question is whether they're armed to explode in the air or when they hit the ground.

tguvot · 3h ago
for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercepted or falling in empty fields). On the other side Israel attempt on taking our Iranian AD was success.

It led Iran to make 2 decisions

- Accelerate production of IRBM in order to have 10000 in stock and to build 1000 launchers in order to execute massive launches that will not possible to defend against

- Apparently the did decide to mate their IRBM with nukes as recently there was meeting between whoever managed iranian missiles problem and heads of nuclear project (there is economist article about it).

This comes against backdrop of hamas and hezbollah been wiped. especially hezbollah which was supposed to be strike force against israel with estimated 100k-200k missiles and rockets.

PS. to those who write that jordan/usa intercepted most/a lot. they (together with saudi arabia, uk and france intercepted drones and cruise missiles. out of all IRBM only 6 were intercepted with SM3 missiles from USA ship)

Stevvo · 2h ago
Hamas has not "been wiped"; they have more members than before October 7th.
amluto · 1h ago
Do they have much in the way of military capability right now? They could have a full two million committed members, and that might be a serious long term strategic issue for Israel, but the actual immediate threat might be nominal.
petesergeant · 1h ago
> Hamas [has] more members than before October 7th

I'm skeptical of this; any source?

mieses · 1h ago
I hope their new members are midwit western university students not capable of speaking fluent Arabic while extinguishing your consciousness.
CapricornNoble · 2h ago
> for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercepted or falling in empty fields).

For clarification, those interception efforts last year required massive assistance from the US and Jordan, and required a hugely disproportionate and unsustainable investment of munitions to pull off. What we've seen in the last week is that Israeli air defenses are much more brittle than they want anyone to believe.

EDIT: For the down-voters, here's Bloomberg citing Israeli media that defending against Operation True Promise cost ~$1 billion USD: https://archive.is/WHDvG

and here is NPR about Jordan's assistance: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/15/1244900560/what-is-known-abou...

and here is the NYT questioning Israel's missile stockpiles: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-i...

jordanb · 59m ago
Everyone in Iran who decided to follow international law and not pursue nuclear weapons including Khamenei look like clowns right now.
biglyburrito · 1h ago
You would have thought folks would have learned from the Iraq War that the US lies. I'm no fan of Khomeini's sabre-rattling, but if people are really buying into the narrative that we did this because they had nukes, idk what to tell you besides go read your history.
_heimdall · 1h ago
It isn't just the US that lies, its politicians and leaders. People in charge want to keep power, and the only ones willing to fight their way to the top don't deserve the power of office.
verisimi · 1h ago
Folks do know. Folks knew before the Iraq war too.

But what does this generic knowledge have to do with anything, when the military action is already decided for geo-political reasons? The only decision to make is what pretext to use.

In a way, the 'iraq wmd' justification has proven it's value as a pretext - so why not tweak it and use it again?

kelnos · 4h ago
"Not close" doesn't mean they're not working on it. I think it's reasonable to expect that unspoken bit is "... but their current avenue of work is going to eventually succeed".

I'm tired of the US playing puppetmaster (poorly) around the world, getting involved in conflicts that have nothing to do with us (or rather, creating conflicts when it has to do with access to oil or something). And it's not like we haven't messed up Iran enough already.

But I do not want a nuclear-armed Iran to be a thing. If they were working on it and had a solid program that was likely to bear fruit, I hate to say it, but this was probably the right move. But this is a big "if"; I don't trust this administration to tell the truth about any of this, no more than I trusted Bush Jr when he said Iraq had nukes.

uhhhd · 5h ago
The photos of the facilities are literally all over the internet. The IAEA knew about it and knew Iran was enriching weapons grade uranium. This isn't Iraq 2.
sodality2 · 5h ago
Flies in the face of the US intelligence community’s report at the end of March [0], but, I am not floored if true. Do you have any sources?

Edit: If you mean "Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015)" [1], that report explicitly mentions up to 60% which is not weapons grade.

[0]: https://www.newsweek.com/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-2... [1]: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pd...

dralley · 2h ago
This stuff gets grammar-hacked a million different ways.

Yes, 60% enriched Uranium is not weapons-grade, but it can be made weapons grade very quickly. Once you've gotten to 60%, you've done 99% of the work - U-235 starts as such a small percentage of natural Uranium that most of the process is spent at very low concentrations.

It can simultaneously be true that Iran isn't "imminently creating a bomb" and also that they're actively working towards a breakout point where they could build a dozen bombs in very quick succession once they did decide to go forwards with the process.

I don't personally think they were rushing towards a bomb at this moment, but Israel isn't really in the mood to wait around until they decide to do so.

hollerith · 4h ago
60% enrichment may not be weapons grade, but it takes only days or weeks to go from 60% to 90%. It is much easier than going from natural uranium to 60%.
827a · 4h ago
But maybe a little harshly: Who cares? Does it somehow raise the moral foundation of the operation if they had nukes? Would the attack suddenly be unethical if it was only against a military target with the public, accepted purpose to, one day, be able to develop precursors to nuclear weapons? Why?
frontfor · 4h ago
60% enrichment level is significantly higher than what’s required for peaceful purposes. To say that it’s not weapons grade is just disingenuous.
sorcerer-mar · 4h ago
Except that it is literally not weapons grade.

It turns out there's a big gap between most peaceful purposes and weapons grade, and this was in that gap.

twothreeone · 2h ago
Wikipedia points to a source that says it is used for parts of a multi-stage fusion bomb:

> Uranium with enrichments ranging from 40% to 80% U-235 has been used in large amounts in U.S. thermonuclear weapons as a yield-boosting jacketing material for the secondary fusion stage

Source: http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq6.html#nfaq6.2

sorcerer-mar · 2h ago
Ah yes, alongside the weapons grade steel and weapons grade copper.
Retric · 2h ago
There’s no minimum qualification for steel to be useful in a bomb, there is for uranium which this meets.
mindslight · 59m ago
Just to be clear, this isn't "useful [to make] a bomb" - it's useful in a thermonuclear warhead that already has a primary fission stage using the originally-mentioned highly enriched weapons grade uranium, plus a second fusion stage that (as far as I'm aware) Iran is not working to develop.

edit: phrasing. it feels like we're going around in circles nitpicking based on a poor framing and the tendency for innuendo on this topic

Retric · 46m ago
You might want to rephrase that as a thermonuclear warhead is obviously a bomb making it “useful in a bomb.”

Also, you can use 60% enriched uranium in the primary stage at the cost of a much larger, less efficient, and dirty device.

fallingknife · 4h ago
When the only purpose of stepping into that gap is to get to weapons grade, it doesn't really work as a gray area.

No comments yet

dj_gitmo · 5h ago
> Iran was enriching weapons grade uranium

Do you have a citation for this?

flyinglizard · 5h ago
IAEA was claiming 60% enrichment. Enough weapons grade material for nine warheads: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Analy...
dragontamer · 4h ago
Weapons grade Uranium is over 90% purity.

60% is just a stepping stone towards 90%.

lamontcg · 4h ago
That's like saying driving from NYC to Sacramento is just a "Stepping Stone" to driving to SF. You've done most of the drive.

To get 1kg of U-235 requires 1.11kg at 90% purity, 1.67kg at 60% purity, and 140.6kg at natural 0.711% purity.

Teever · 1h ago
Sure, but if this is being talked about like there's a legal justification to take military action then there actually has to be legal justification.

Was what Iran doing illegal?

firesteelrain · 1h ago
It was a pre-emptive strike based on the behaviors of a state sponsor of terrorism. It’s not like the US and its allies have not tried to stop this before - see StuxNet
drewwwwww · 19m ago
bad news about who the US sponsors
Teever · 1h ago
Sure, but is a kinetic pre-emptive strike in this context legal?

Because this is what underlies all of this -- is the premise that Iran is behaving in an unacceptable and illegal fashion and therefore a legal response with violence is justified.

This all presupposes that Iran is breaking the law with their production of nuclear weapons. Are they breaking the law with their production of nuclear weapons?

dralley · 1h ago
What does "legal" even really mean between states at war. The consequences typically come down to a popularity contest and Iran is one of the few states with fewer friends than Israel.

Was Iran's activities funding militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, which launched attacks against Israel and US forces "legal"? Which of the US' activities were "legal"? It's all mostly a bad joke.

simonh · 22m ago
It's tricky. Arming a country or group than then launches an attack, or uses those weapons in a war, doesn't make you a participant in that conflict. This is why Europe and the US can supply weapons to Ukraine without being participants in a conflict with Russia.

However Iran has the stated intention of destroying the state of Israel, and actively incites it's proxies to attack Israel, and this could be seen as a valid justification for taking action. Not a lawyer though.

jandrewrogers · 20m ago
This is between nation states. Concepts like laws and legality really don’t apply at this level of abstraction. Agreements are a matter of convenience and convention because there is no higher authority that can enforce them.

Geopolitics operates in an explicitly anarchic arena.

firesteelrain · 51m ago
Countries can attack others. There is not like a superset of a country over all countries that says what is and isn’t legal. All we have are agreements and treaties.

Not that we would or should but the US could attack any number of countries today and only if one or more countries stopped the US would the victor be able to say it’s illegal.

busterarm · 4h ago
You only get to 60% on the road to 90%. At 60% it has no other useful purpose.
tmnvix · 4h ago
Are there other uses for highly enriched uranium? Wikipedia mentions 'research' I think.

Has the Iranian government ever explained why they are enriching uranium?

wombatpm · 2h ago
Their story is a desire to build reactors for when the oil runs out. Energy security
dralley · 1h ago
Nobody builds reactors with 60% enriched uranium
jiggawatts · 27m ago
You only need 5% enriched for that.
nradov · 5h ago
No one in the US government was claiming that Iran had nuclear weapons. The stated reason is that they were close to having nuclear weapons based on the current rate of uranium enrichment, anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. Of course we may never know whether that's really true.
1659447091 · 2h ago
> The stated reason is that they were close to having nuclear weapons

No the US was claiming: "We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so." in it's 2025 Threat Assessment. The reports believes they were not working on them and Khamenei has the final authority to restart the program which he had not done. However, they believe there was growing pressured to do so.

Trump just gave the guy reason to green light a weapons project he had so far not wanted.

[pdf] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-202...

No comments yet

eastbound · 12m ago
Iran has “Death to America” as an hymn. It is commonly accepted that a nation directly threatening others of death deserves the war.
TeeMassive · 4h ago
The predicate that Iran has them but would show restraint is the same that same that they don't have them but will show restraint and not use desperate measures like blowing up the entire Middle Eastern oil production and distribution network and ports and not use dirty bombs.

Which shows how much of BS the pro-war argument was to begin with.

shmoe · 2h ago
From what I read, they likely still couldn't penetrate the halls at Fordow, which are about 260 feet underground and encased in 30000psi concrete. Did we even do anything there?
crystal_revenge · 2h ago
Which is precisely what makes the calculus of this so dangerous, something I don't think many people understand.

Iran isn't actually a nation of pure evil, they are looking out for their own interests and on any given Sunday, are not particularly interested in starting a nuclear conflict. At the same time, understandably, their adversaries are not particularly interested in them having that option.

The risk is when they are backed into a corner where using a nuclear weapon increasingly makes sense. In this case, if you bomb Fordow and can completely eradicate the nuclear weapons, you do eliminate the immediate nuclear risk (though not without creating a slew of new problems to deal with). But, if you fail you have now backed them into a corner where this might become an increasingly reasonable option.

Either way the events of today are very likely to unfold in ways that forever change not only the dynamics of the middle east but global politics as a whole.

Ancapistani · 2h ago
This is a great comment IMO :)

> Iran isn't actually a nation of pure evil, they are looking out for their own interests

Exactly. I do my best to consider them an "adversary", not an "enemy" for just that reason.

> The risk is when they are backed into a corner where using a nuclear weapon increasingly makes sense.

I'd argue there are two risks: one is that this puts Iran in a position where, if the regime survives, they will feel (and rightfully so) that the only way to secure their position is to possess them.

It also makes the same statement to other countries in similar positions.

I don't think we have a better option, sadly, but it is a consequence of this action.

Also, I don't think this makes a rational case for use. For possession, yes. For threatening to use them under certain conditions, yes - but the only rational use case for deploying nuclear weapons is if your opponent has already done the same. This became the case when the thermonuclear bomb was invented.

K0balt · 48m ago
Ukraine, and now Iran, have made one thing abundantly clear to the world: if you want to have any actual sovereignty on the world stage, you must have nuclear weapons. Otherwise you are merely waiting for another nation to find an excuse to violate your borders.

Every country in the world with well organized military is right now working on plans to acquire a nuclear arsenal either by proxy or by way of a domestic nuclear program. That is the legacy of this strike. It puts the point at the end of the exclamation that was Ukraine.

The seeds of a new era of proliferation have been sown, and our children will reap the rewards.

There are now ways to purify uranium much more cost effectively and in better secrecy that centrifuges. Small labs can do it effectively now, and a massively distributed effort would not only make it possible to achieve without needing to buy restricted equipment, it also would make it nearly impossible to disrupt militarily.

You could just open source a design and let the market do the work. It’s of course a terrible idea, which would lead to explosive proliferation and lots of cancer, but it would work. The technical part is challenging but not outside of the reach of serious hobby level efforts.

I will be surprised if we don’t start to see something along these lines cropping up all over the place soon. It’s a natural progression of several technologies that have become vastly more economical and accessible as time goes on.

simonh · 1h ago
The main problem is the Iranian regime's view that it is their religious duty to destroy the state of Israel. This is why they supply weapons to Hamas, Hizbullah, the Houthis, and anyone who will attack Israel, and incite them to do so.

They will not stop, and they can't be negotiated with on this, again because they see it as a religious duty.

cryptonector · 23m ago
> It also makes the same statement to other countries in similar positions.

We've already seen that with North Korea and Libya. NK got to having them before we could stop them. Libya gave up its nuclear program (which is how we learned about Iran's), and we staged a revolution there and regime change.

firesteelrain · 1h ago
“ the regime survives, they will feel (and rightfully so) that the only way to secure their position is to possess them”

Which is why they likely were trying to possess them before and the US and Israel felt the need to strike

rexer · 1h ago
Do you think Iran will have nukes in the near (20 years, just to put a number) term? Your position really only makes sense if that's not the case. By whatever means, the goal now seems to be to prevent that.

> I don't think we have a better option

I'd love help getting on board with this

cryptonector · 20m ago
> Do you think Iran will have nukes in the near (20 years, just to put a number) term?

If they managed to get enough of their HEU and any reactor spent fuel out of Fordo and elsewhere into locations we don't know about where they happen to have previously built backup facilities then they could have them very quickly. Hopefully a) they didn't build backup facilities, and b) didn't get a change to spirit away the materials w/o us noticing.

Ancapistani · 1h ago
The plan we've committed to now is to prevent it.

If we fail, there's still the hope that other commenters here are right, and Iran isn't intent on using them offensively. If so, then Iran itself will be safe from this sort of attack.

... but it will also be clear to every other that the only way to be secure from Western military intervention is to possess nuclear weapons. There will be a precedent of a country acquiring them despite Western demands and surviving. This will lead to a world where proliferation is rampant, but not necessarily one where their use is no longer taboo as it is today.

seadan83 · 51m ago
> There will be a precedent of a country acquiring them despite Western demands and surviving.

Like North Korea?

tonyhart7 · 1h ago
I mean 20 years ago, mossad literally destroy their nuclear program using Stuxnet

20 years is reasonable time to rebuild

z2 · 1h ago
In the region, it feels like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to be watching this very closely closely.
Ancapistani · 1h ago
KSA has been slowly coming around for the past decade or so. Trump's recent visit -- domestic optics aside -- confirmed and strengthened that.

Turkey/Türkiye has been going the other direction. They're not totally off the reservation, but Erdogan isn't exactly in NATO's inner circle personally.

lostlogin · 1h ago
Is there a good write up somewhere on what a nuclear Iran would mean?

I don’t wish for more nuclear weapons, but to date, the states with them, usually (a nice apply word) don’t use them.

tus666 · 2h ago
260ft is around 79m. The bombs can penetrate around 60m of concrete. So one bomb, probably not, but they are able to follow each other in quick succession meaning 2 or three should be able to do the job quite easily, with accurate GPS positioning.
missedthecue · 4m ago
They can penetrate 60m of soil. They cannot penetrate 60m of concrete. Reinforced concrete at about 5000psi would only get penetration of 8-15m.

The facility is beneath 80m of limestone which in the Qom formation is roughly equivalent to about 5000psi concrete.

Beneath the limestone, sits the facility itself which is encased in high performance concrete. So these bombs need to pen 80m of 5000psi material and then a unknown depth of high performance concrete.

jen729w · 1h ago
Also, surely – I have no expertise – but you don't need to totally destroy the bunker to render the operation basically dead, right?

The land, roads, ingress points, elevators, security, everything around here is now FUBAR. Okay so you didn't "destroy the bunker", but how many years until it's functional again?

sdenton4 · 27m ago
The bombs don't dig a hole, removing all matter for the next bomb to dig its way deeper...
jandrewrogers · 9m ago
The point is not to dig a hole. Penetration depth is a function of compression strength of the medium. Every bomb leaves a path of debris in its wake with negligible compression strength that subsequent bombs can pass through before expending their energy.
missedthecue · 1m ago
But they compact the material beneath the explosion.
margalabargala · 1h ago
Media is reporting that 12 were dropped on Fordow
shmoe · 2h ago
ahh.. in my mind it was multiple hits spread over an area. This does make more sense.
ruined · 2h ago
AP quoting Iranian officials reports no radiological contamination, which suggests the facilities weren't penetrated https://apnews.com/live/israel-iran-war-updates#00000197-95a...
tptacek · 2h ago
You wouldn't expect significant radiological contamination from bombing an HEU facility deep underground? This isn't like exposed reactor core material.
cryptonector · 16m ago
They do have reactors though, do they not? Hitting the spent fuel pools and/or the reactors would produce detectable radioactive contamination. The HEU? Not so much as its half-life is 700 million years, and the stuff is dense and will quickly settle down.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
There are limited ways to destroy Fordow. US is only country to possess them
siltcakes · 2h ago
This bombing was for show. The US did not use the required munitions to destroy these targets. Not even close.
margalabargala · 1h ago
They dropped 12 of the GBU-57s. What would you recommend?
sebmellen · 1h ago
12 of those bunker busters in succession? High chance the facilities really were destroyed.
jandrewrogers · 1h ago
That does not follow. It is not like it is an active reactor. There is no reason there should be significant radiological contamination.
simonh · 50m ago
The facility enriches Uranium hexafluoride gas.
cryptonector · 15m ago
With a half-life between 700 million years (for U-235) and 4 billion years (for U-238). And it's dense stuff that will immediately settle on the ground. You're not going to detect it from afar.
__MatrixMan__ · 2h ago
I know 30,000 lbs is a lot, but I'm still surprised that terminal velocity is fast enough for it to penetrate concrete as deeply as they say it can.
hansvm · 1h ago
I'm a little surprised too. Even at the speed of sound in granite (6km/s) where you can start to consider crater-forming dynamics you only get an impact depth of 200ft. Treating it as a Newtonian impactor you get a depth of 60ft. I'd wager the cone shape pushing material to the side is hugely important to the outcome.
arandomusername · 5h ago
What does "unauthorized" mean here? Who needs to authorize weapons-grade uranium enrichment?

The GBU-57 is dope. Really curious to see how well it worked here

nradov · 5h ago
Unauthorized in the sense of a violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. Whether Iran is actually violating the treaty is a matter of some dispute.

https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/

tguvot · 47m ago
tptacek · 5h ago
It's literally an anvil they drop out of the sky hoping to punch through structures like an aerial drilling platform. I guess it's dope, but it seems like cartoon armament to me.
trhway · 4h ago
> I guess it's dope, but it seems like cartoon armament to me.

The first bunker-buster :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney_bomb

"According to an anecdote, the idea arose after a group of Royal Navy officers saw a similar, but fictional, bomb depicted in the 1943 Walt Disney animated propaganda film Victory Through Air Power,[Note 10] and the name Disney was consequently given to the weapon."

cwmoore · 4h ago
Curious too. I can’t even imagine driving a 16ton nail through hundreds of feet of hard rock and reinforced concrete.
faramarz · 1h ago
The factual's don't matter in Politics, not when mad men are at the helm. Funny how Trump closed his address with thanking god, and the Iranians start theirs in the name of god. So different, yet the same.

The US posturing against Iran dates back to the Cold War era when Iran was tagged as “northern tier” state, and any nationalist moves inside looked like a Soviet opening, and a threat to the Anglo stronghold of Iran's Oil.

weatherlite · 1h ago
> I think Netanyahu belongs in prison

We're working on it, 10-20 more years of legal proceedings and it's done.

sjsdaiuasgdia · 5h ago
It's a shame we got rid of the deal that brought their domestic uranium production to a halt [0]. Trump fucked this all up so badly.

[0] https://www.statista.com/chart/23528/irans-stockpile-of--low...

fisherjeff · 39m ago
Ah but he’ll get a better deal, just you wait. Did you know he wrote a whole book on deals?
tptacek · 5h ago
Yes.
busterarm · 3h ago
And yet every neighboring country in the region supported our withdrawal.
muglug · 2h ago
Yeah, Iran contains a lot of people who want to stir shit up with their neighbours.

But Iran also contains reformers, and the deal was a bet that if you do good diplomacy you can reduce the power and influence of the shit-stirrers.

YZF · 5h ago
The original deal didn't address the core issues. It was just a delay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...

The relief of sanctions enabled Iran to fund their other activities in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. It also enable the regime to invest in other weapons programs including weapons Iran has been supplying to Russia and those it and its proxies are launching against Israel.

I'm not sure Trump withdrawal from that deal was the best idea but the deal wasn't great either.

dralley · 2h ago
I mean, this strike doesn't really address the core issue either. The core issue being Iran being a fundamentalist regime.
sorcerer-mar · 4h ago
The deal did address – quite precisely and successfully – the core issue. It didn't address some other side issues.

"The thing that prevented them from achieving a nuclear weapon didn't also prevent them from funding x y z other far less problematic things that can be far more easily handled through conventional diplomacy and military action"

Seriously?

HAL3000 · 2h ago
Thinking that doing something like that will stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is naive. It's not a technical challenge for them, it's a political decision, only a political decision. If they really wanted to, they would already have it. Enriched material was transported from these centers some time ago, as news outlets have already reported.

As for the facts, and not just the narrative: 60% enrichment is not considered weapons-grade enrichment, and it is not illegal under the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Therefore, today's attack is an illegal act of aggression against another country, violating international law. Those are the facts.

r0m4n0 · 1h ago
Just curious where the enrichment fact you are claiming comes from. I see the NPT outlined 3% max while watchdogs detected over 80%. I didn’t think there were debates about them breaking the NPT

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-...

energy123 · 2h ago
> Enriched material was transported from these centers some time ago, as news outlets have already reported.

That's what Iran state media says. Has anyone else said this?

cdash · 1h ago
I am not sure how its only a political decision when they don't have control of their own airspace. How exactly do they rebuild when as soon as they start they get bombed. I think its more accurate to say it WAS a political decision. They had the capability but did not pursue it due to the fallout of doing so. The question its do they still retain the capability and will they ever be allowed to reclaim that capability if they lost it.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
60% can be weaponized and it’s not a huge leap to go to 90%
akdev1l · 1h ago
> If they really wanted to, they would already have it. Enriched material was transported from these centers some time ago.

> 60% enrichment is not considered weapons-grade enrichment.

So which is it?

1. They already have enriched uranium and can just make a bomb now

2. They don’t have weapons-grade enriched uranium (and now probably cannot enrich it)

gmueckl · 1h ago
3. (Speculation) They know how to enrich further, but deliberately didn't.
margalabargala · 1h ago
That's just (2).

Whether they had the theoretical ability to complete enrichment or not last week, does not matter, because they likely do not have it now.

mieses · 1h ago
There isn't anything special about Iran. It's anyone's political decision to use a nuke. So you make diplomatic decisions, war inclusive, to increase chances that you will not be nuked.
yongjik · 5h ago
> dug into the side of a mountain hours outside of population centers

Did you have to add that qualifier because otherwise there's at least one other nuclear power in Middle East that regularly bombs civilians.

No comments yet

monkaiju · 1h ago
Iran doesnt have and hasnt pursued a nuclear weapons program: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/17/trump-iran-i...
FuckButtons · 1h ago
Sorry, but this is a hopelessly naive take. They were undoubtedly content to abide by the terms of the JCPOA, but they have also done significantly more than would be required for a purely civilian nuclear program, notwithstanding their prolific ballistic missile program.
fisherjeff · 42m ago
All obviously true, but what I don’t understand is how anyone could possibly believe that this strike could push Iran toward signing and abiding by the terms of an agreement more stringent than JCPOA. I’d be very happy to be wrong but it’s hard for me to see how this isn’t a big step backward.
dlubarov · 4m ago
I don't think anyone believes that, it's just a matter of giving up on a diplomatic solution and resorting to the use of force. It might only be a short-term solution, but it is what it is.
Tika2234 · 46m ago
There is saying might is right. Since he is the new American president, that is might. So he is righteous. I dont think prisons fit a "righteous" person.
tw04 · 18m ago
All it did was prove to Iran they need nuclear weapons. There’s one thing every country knows and it’s that the only way you don’t become the target of Russia, the US, or Israel is to maintain a nuclear arsenal.

We couldn’t stop North Korea with threats of violence but we did manage to stop Iran for almost 50 years through diplomacy. That’s all pissed down the drain now.

GuardianCaveman · 14m ago
Oh we stopped them? They’ve steadily advanced towards being a nuclear state regardless of all the diplomacy deployed. How many countries don’t have nukes that aren’t being invaded. Canada, Italy, Japan, Costa Rica etc. they don’t have nukes and I don’t think they’re about to be invaded because they’ve joined the international community and are not sponsoring hezbollah or houthis etc.
apu · 43m ago
Incredible to see the bloodlust and warmongering here, cloaked in the language of technical interest.
GuardianCaveman · 10m ago
Incredible to see the people who have zero contact with extremist Muslims or familiarity with what the Quran and hadiths actually say or understand Iran in any way talking about how Iran is the victim or burying their heads in the sand with their coexist bumper stickers acting like we can just be nice and everyone will get along.
viccis · 6m ago
>extremist Muslims or familiarity with what the Quran and hadiths

You can easily find stuff in the Bible and the Torah or Talmud that would shock you. And Israel even acts on the latter. But conveniently it's just the Muslim world, one beset with colonial extraction for centuries, that you care about. Not the people in the US who supported wars killings hundreds of thousands over the last few decades for religious reasons. Hmm.

khazhoux · 1m ago
Why do you see it as bloodlust though?

If (if) this destroyed a nuclear weapons program, that is good for the world.

No one can predict the downstream consequences of today, but I fail to see an argument for why the world benefits from another nation getting the bomb.

einpoklum · 22m ago
Indeed.

It is especially disappointing considering the fact that the two aggressor states are also engaged in the incessant pounding of the population of Gaza, for 20 months already, with massive massacring of civilians, and the reduction of most of the strip into a moonscape of rubble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcA0X5LPXe8

crossroadsguy · 2m ago
As someone who absolutely hates American bullying of a hegemony. This is one case where I believe people of Iran might get out beneficial out of it. In the long term? I am not sure.

But will that happen? I doubt it. A country like America likes authoritarian regimes that like to listen to America. So Iranian things in the best interest of America would be the same theocracy but docile to America at least in the near future.

However I just hope (it's too much to hope for) for the sake of Iran - it ends up getting a democracy after all (maybe).

However there is one thing clear - there is no rule based foreign relations, business, diplomacy anymore in this post truth world of hours. It's plain simple - you look after your own hind lest you find it someone at the door wanting to take it; might be an ally just as well.

Just as a side note: I can't thank four of my country's ex PMs [0] enough to ensure we had nukes inspite of stringent sanctions from other nations which ironically, among them, almost all already had nukes :D

The point is - we wish there were no nukes in our heating beautiful world; but tough luck, so you better get your own and get it soon.

[0] esp. Indira Ghandhi - probably the only head of sate that actually succeeded in "selling freedom" which America specialises in and uses as a premise to reduce various parts of the world to rubble but a positive outcome of it that its defence industry gets push from it and of course it goes about trying to re-build it (giving push to other industries) half or quarter way and then finds other places to subject to this routine.

BartjeD · 41m ago
Bombing another country is literally a declaration of war. With explosions.

Isn't an act of congress required for this, in the US?

riffraff · 38m ago
Countries stopped doing declarations of war decades ago, cause you know, war is not something _we_ do, it's something bad people do.

_We_ do special operations, interventions, liberations, preventive strikes, weapon destructions.

IceHegel · 32m ago
Any reasonable understanding of the term "war" obviously includes bombing a country's strategic military sites.

Today Congressmen's main job is soliciting bribes. I expect they want their name on as few pieces of paper connecting them to a conflict as possible. They are not in charge of the government.

GuardianCaveman · 8m ago
Obama bombed a lot of countries with no act of congress: Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Syria, etc. I don’t know the legality but plenty of precedent besides him.
PeterHolzwarth · 37m ago
By the body of American legislative tradition, no this is not an act of war. In fact, we haven't declared one since WWII.
BartjeD · 18m ago
Next you'll tell me Hiroshima and Nagasaki weren't acts of war either!
khazhoux · 30s ago
We were already at a declared war at that time.
einpoklum · 18m ago
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C11-2...

Use of military force requires congressional approval.

Well, in principle. In practice, the US executive does not observe this restriction, or at most - makes a flimsy connection the 2001 AUMF following the twin towers attack. The courts do not enjoin it from using military force pretty much arbitraly; and congress does not impeach nor even adopt declarative denunciations of this behavior.

BLKNSLVR · 37m ago
The US, as rational thinking US citizens may have thought it to be, no longer exists.

In fact, it may never have actually existed.

lotyrin · 29m ago
Intelligent, rational, empathetic people need to realize that when they are doing theory of mind for others (and especially groups) they are projecting their own qualities where they do not exist.
lerp-io · 1h ago
moral of the story: if you don’t make the nuke to wipe everyone out fast enough, you will eventually get bombed and no amount of diplomacy will save you from game theory.
_heimdall · 1h ago
I do agree with the sentiment here, but "no amount of diplomacy" isn't really a description of Iran's government.

The Iranian government has frequently reference a goal of destroying Israel, a sovereign nation, and referred to the US in very disparaging (and biblical) terms. That doesn't justify direct attack, but it also isn't diplomatic.

azinman2 · 1m ago
Disparaging? They literally chant death to America. Is that not also calling for its destruction?
ggm · 5h ago
I wonder if the bunker buster was used. It has a somewhat indirect lineage to the ww2 grand slam designed by Barnes Wallis.

Iran has massive earthquake risks. For reasons unassociated with nuclear bunkers they do a lot of research into (fibre, and other) strengthened cement construction. With obvious applications to their nuclear industry of course.

Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.

hwillis · 1h ago
> Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.

Iran does not have the same degree of sexist restrictions as eg Saudi Arabia. It's a very different climate from places where salafism is more common. Female education in particular is highly supported eg: https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1869369086142296490

tbrownaw · 2h ago
> Another unrelated point, a significant number of Iranian civil engineering graduates are women. A somewhat dichotomous economy, when you consider the theocratic restrictions on costume and behaviour.

I thought it was generally known that richer societies with me equal treatment - where people are generally more able to choose jobs they like rather than needing to take whatever's a ticket to a decent life - are the places with higher disparities in well-paying occupations?

coliveira · 2h ago
Bunker buster is not necessarily a solution for this. It was created for normal bunkers, WW2 style of construction. What they have in Iran are construction sites very deep in the mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if this type of bombs can't do more than superficial damage to the sites.
pigbearpig · 1h ago
Right...the GBU-57 having been placed into service in 2011 was surely created to destroy 65-year old bunker designs.
trhway · 2h ago
GBU-57 reaches 200ft depth, Fordow is 300ft. The seismic wave of explosion at 200ft of several tons of TNT would reach 300ft with pretty damaging energy.

And, if it weren't enough, you can always put a second bomb into the hole made by the first one.

To the commenters below:

- nobody would let Iran to come even close to remilitarizing again. No centrifuges, and no placing them or anything similar under ground, etc.

- I do think that US may get involved in enforcement of no-fly zone over Iran. The no-fly is necessary, and Israel just doesn't have enough resources. The further scenario that i see is https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44343063

- jugding by, for example, the precise drone strikes on the top military commanders, Israel has had very good intelligence from Iran, so i'm pretty sure that general parameters like the depth were well known to them (the public statement of 300ft may be a lie, yet the point is that US and Israel know the depth and thus weapons to use)

cryptonector · 7m ago
Why a no-fly zone?
crazylogger · 2h ago
I imagine Iran will just pick a 1000-meter mountain to dig under then?
SllX · 2h ago
Supposedly we dropped six, but I'm interested in any information that comes out about the final damage to see if this was sufficient. Ideally this would be the beginning and end of our direct engagements in this conflict.

EDIT: I kind of wish you had broken your "commenters below" piece into separate replies, but I assume this one was directed at me:

> - I do think that US may get involved in enforcement of no-fly zone over Iran. The no-fly is necessary, and Israel just doesn't have enough resources. The further scenario that i see is https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44343063

I didn't even consider a no-fly zone, and perhaps. I mean at this point, the current Iranian regime is in the most precarious situation it has ever been in whether they go for the kill against Ali Khamenei or just keep picking out the people below him and the IRGC's ability to fight. But if we do this, then we, and I guess I mean we now that we've actually bombed them, then we're committing to more than just taking out their nuclear capabilities, but we're committing to seeing a full regime change come to fruition.

To be blunt, given our most recent history in Iraq and Afghanistan, I'm still very much of the opinion that the least amount of American involvement, the better. If our bombs help curtail Iran's nuclear weapon R&D and we didn't lose a single B-2 in the process, then great, we've done some good for the world[1], but our track record on seeing regime changes through to the end has been less than fabulous.

[1] Still waiting to see how successful the mission was towards this goal by the way.

shepherdjerred · 1h ago
I wonder if we have that mission accomplished banner in storage somewhere
coliveira · 2h ago
> Fordow is 300ft

You seem to believe they really have accurate information about these installations. I doubt it.

cryptonector · 5m ago
German contractors helped the Iranians lots. I would be good money that they have been debriefed and/or spied on.
creato · 1h ago
They had pinpoint accurate information about a lot of senior leaders, that seems a lot harder to know than a stationary facility's location and layout.
tguvot · 14m ago
no fly or not no fly, but iranian foreign minister had to ask permission from idf in order to fly out to geneva
arandomusername · 5h ago
> I wonder if the bunker buster was used

Most certainly was. It's underground (Fordow is ~60m?) so it's either that or nukes.

ggm · 4h ago
As I understand it enrichment is by gas centrifuge or thermal diffusion. An earthquake bomb would disrupt both. You wouldn't be starting the feed cycle up rapidly, but since we're told Iran has stockpiles, this goes to sustainable delivery of materials more than specific short term risk.

As a strategy, I see this as flawed. A dirty bomb remains viable with partially enriched materials.

(This does not mean to imply I support either bombing or production of weapons grade materiel. It's a comment to outcome, not wisdom)

AnthonyMouse · 3h ago
> A dirty bomb remains viable with partially enriched materials.

A dirty bomb is basically Hollywood nonsense, and wouldn't use uranium to begin with because it isn't very radioactive.

The premise is that you put radioactive materials into a conventional explosive to spread it around. But spreading a kilogram of something over a small area is boring because you can fully vaporize a small area using conventional explosives, spreading a kilogram of something over a large area is useless because you'd be diluting it so much it wouldn't matter, and spreading several tons of something over a large area is back to "you could do more damage by just using several tons of far cheaper conventional explosives".

dralley · 2h ago
Also anything that is dangerous enough to actually be scary in dirty bomb form, like Cobalt-60, would be impossible to handle without providing a lethal dose of radiation to anyone working with he material within minutes if not seconds (presumably a reasonablely large & dangerous amount of this material is involved). At least, not without incredibly expensive equipment. And by the time you factor in those prerequisites it's just not worth it.
bandrami · 2h ago
The toxicity of the Uranium would be a bigger problem than the radioactivity
AnthonyMouse · 2h ago
And has the same issue with dilution, and is even more boring because there are much cheaper things with more chemical toxicity than uranium too, like lead.
cryptonector · 3m ago
> As I understand it enrichment is by gas centrifuge or thermal diffusion.

Centrifuges. They got them via the A. Q. Khan network. We learned about if circa 2005 from Qaddaffi who gave up his to secure peace and his safety (and it didn't turn out well for him because Obama did not respect the gentleman's deal Qaddaffi had with Bush).

gh02t · 3h ago
Uranium, especially highly enriched uranium, is not very radioactive. That's one of the reasons its useful for weapons. UF6 is chemically really nasty, but it's heavy and also you have criticality issues that limit how much you can pack into a confined space before it explosively disassembles. That is to say, it would make an extremely poor dirty bomb that would do very little. It'd scare people of course but there are far easier things they could use to achieve that.

Far more concerning is the possibility that they give it away to someone else. Enrichment is nonlinear, going from 60% to the 90% needed for weapons is a fairly trivial amount of work.

throwaway2037 · 1h ago

    > Enrichment is nonlinear
Can anyone explain the science behind this statement? To be clear: I believe it, and I have seen multiple reputable sources say that Iran can enrich to 90% within a few months. I was surprised that it is so quick.
anonymars · 3h ago
> It'd scare people of course but there are far easier things they could use to achieve that.

I wouldn't discount it, though. Remember, feelings matter more than facts. Magnitudes more people die on the road than in the air, but we know how well that translates to fear and action.

I mean heck, how about 9/11 compared to COVID? Wearing a mask for a while: heinous assault on freedom, Apple pie, and the American way. Meanwhile, the post-9/11 security and surveillance apparatus: totally justified to keep America safe

gh02t · 2h ago
Yeah, my point is there are much better options that would also induce fear and actually be effective. Fentanyl strapped to an explosive, or any of a ton of other chemical agents. Iran would do far more damage -- and create a deep source of fear that would likely have lingering consequences for decades -- by giving their HEU away rather than making an ineffective dirty bomb. There is no way anybody who knows what they had would use it that way. Even the most fanatical member of the Iranian regime understands what to do with the material better than that.
XorNot · 2h ago
While true, the problem is it wouldn't meaningfully change the security situation for Iran.

Deliverable nuclear weapons make you invasion proof - nobody wants to risk it. A "dirty bomb" isn't something that can come flying in on an ICBM and eliminate large chunks of your nation - the threat of it is more likely to enhance aggression rather then deter it.

rudedogg · 2h ago
> earthquake bomb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_bomb for others who haven't heard the term

arandomusername · 4h ago
Iran is prone to earthquakes, would an earthquake bomb do more damage than that?

Even if it just damages the centrifuges, as far as I see it, it would just delay their enrichment process, severely less than total destruction of their underground base.

ggm · 4h ago
Yes that's basically my point. They recalibrate, tighten the pipes, and flush the contamination back out of the chain. 6 to 8 weeks/days/whatever later it's back in cycle.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
If they can even get back in
neves · 3h ago
Remember that Israel had more nuclear bombs than China and never signed any international as tmy treaty.
hollerith · 2h ago
China is estimated to have approximately 600 nuclear warheads. China is rapidly expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal and is projected to reach at least 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.

Israel is widely believed to possess around 90 nuclear warheads.

invalidname · 2h ago
Israel never acknowledged that. It is claimed that the US president at the time demanded that Israel kept this a secret to avoid embarrassment to the US.

Iran repeatedly calls for death to Israel and the USA. Israel never did that.

tehjoker · 5h ago
the bunker buster, if used, will almost certainly be nuclear. estimated tonnage: 300 kt
p_ing · 5h ago
MOP is a conventional weapon, 30,000 lbs. Only the B-2 is rated to carry it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP

xnx · 4h ago
Genuinely surprised that Israel couldn't push one out of their c-130s
algorithmsRcool · 2h ago
The kinetics matter here. The B2 flies much higher than the C-130 which would aid the GBU-57 MOP (almost certainly used here) in it's ability to penetrate to maximum depth. 80% of the 15 ton weight of that bomb is just heavy metal to give it maximum energy as it borrows into the ground.

Also, each B2 can carry 2 MOPs making it a better platform than a C-130, and that isn't even taking the stealth of the platform into account

xnx · 2h ago
> Also, each B2 can carry 2 MOPs

Wow. That is amazing. 60,000 lbs. combined.

1659447091 · 3h ago
Don't think the C-130s can fly high enough with a single 30,000lb bomb. The graphic at bbc site show it would be dropped from about 12km (~40,000 ft) in order to gain the speed needed to drive it some 60m underground.
ahazred8ta · 2h ago
From 40,000 feet, the bomb would take ~ 50 seconds to fall and would impact at mach 1.5.
giantg2 · 3h ago
Do they even have access to this variant? I thought they had access to the older ones that weren't as advanced.
dingaling · 49m ago
The MOP isn't particularly 'advanced', it's basically refined version of the Korean-vintage Tarzon guided earthquake bombs. It's just too heavy for most military aircraft to carry.

The IDF has the F-15I which has a centerline hard point rated for 5,000lb load. That's immense for a fighter but a magnitude too low for the MOP.

There are a variety of smaller US penetrating bombs that the F-15 can handle, but they don't have the mass and structure to penetrate as deeply.

YZF · 2h ago
They do not.
CyanLite2 · 2h ago
Various sources are saying 6 to 12 of these bombs were used. So, you'd need a lot of C-130s and those planes are too slow to NOT get shot down.
p_ing · 2h ago
Israel doesn't have access to the MOP.
ceejayoz · 3h ago
Israel hasn’t degraded Iranian air defenses that much. The stuff that can’t threaten a F-35 can still trouble a C-130.
tguvot · 7m ago
video shows how confused and disoriented are whatever SAM that survived

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1lb8mkc/iran...

energy123 · 2h ago
Why do you say this? Israel only lost 1 drone.
invalidname · 2h ago
According to Israel they fly freely in West/central Iran and use all the plains including F15/16. Initially they relied on the F-35's stealth but as of last week they claim air superiority.
arandomusername · 5h ago
The GBU-57 was most likely used, which is non nuclear
ranger_danger · 2h ago
> almost certainly be nuclear

Source:

ggm · 4h ago
This is nonsense.
tehjoker · 1h ago
those of you hating on this comment, the conventional weapons could not possibly work, the facility is too deep
tempestn · 1h ago
Even after everyone corrected you with information on the specific ordinance used, you're doubling down?
tehjoker · 35m ago
they might be right, but that's why the attack failed and why there's a risk what I said might still come true

i was listening to Al Jazeera, one of the DC flaks they interviewed gave an upper estimate of the facility depth as 1000 ft. The conventional device can go to something like 60m or 200 ft. 6 devices were dropped, they would have to have everything, including geology with repeated strikes on the same point, be perfect to get past 1000 feet, and then they probably would not destroy the whole facility. As far as I know, they don't even have a good map of the layout.

hence, the only real option is a nuclear weapon. this is absolutely being considered inside the pentagon. our government is psychotic. a 1 kt nuclear weapon (laughably small, hiroshima was 15 kt) is 73x more powerful than a 30,000 lb bomb. they would be like, well, it's an underground explosion! The world will forgive us. it's so crafty and smart to use a nuke to stop a nuke (that doesn't exist).

https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1935741526191100181

"The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is located."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-...

tiffanyh · 2h ago
Yes, bunker buster was used. Per a different source:

> It included a strike on the heavily-fortified Fordo nuclear site, according to Trump, which is located roughly 300 feet under a mountain about 100 miles south of Tehran. It's a move that Israel has been lobbying the U.S. to carry out, given that only the U.S. has the kind of powerful "bunker buster" bomb capable of reaching the site. Known as the GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), the bomb can only be transported by one specific U.S. warplane, the B-2 stealth bomber, due to its immense 30,000 pound weight.

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/21/nx-s1-5441127/iran-us-strike-...

throwaway2037 · 2h ago
I read the article in full. There is no confirmation of using GBU-57 in the strike. Re-read your quoted section. The English is a bit convoluted, but does do not confirm usage.

Tin foil hat engaged: For all we know special forces detonated plastic explosives deep on site after doors were blown off.

More seriously: Nothing has been confirmed except a Truth Social post.

firesteelrain · 1h ago
It’s the only bomb types that make sense given how deep Fordow is buried
tptacek · 2h ago
CNN reports 12 GBU-57s were dropped on Fordow.

Can I say again how deeply silly this munition is? What's special about a GBU-57 isn't its explosive force. It's that the bomb casing is made out of special high-density ultra-heavy steel; it's deliberately just a super heavy bomb with a delayed fuse. It is literally like them dropping cartoon anvils out of the sky.

From what I've read, the idea is that they keep dropping bombs into the same bomb-hole that previous sorties left, each round of bombs drilling deeper into the structure.

stogot · 49m ago
So many armchair quarterbacks in this thread. You haven’t defined how silly this is beyond your feelings. Are you a munition expert? If you were an AF general given this order, what tactic would you choose excluding a nuke?

  The same bomb hole tactic is an untested theory (which may be ineffective but not silly) but we’ll know more later this week once MAXAR surveillance and other independent or IAEA analysis rolls in.
tptacek · 24m ago
I'm not an expert. I just think dropping giant anvils from the sky is Loony Toons tactics. Maybe it works great! I don't know! But it's worth knowing how these things work, and how they work is: they're just super super heavy.
Havoc · 3h ago
Yup. Twelve at main site two at Natanz
benwills · 2h ago
I've heard 6 at Fordow, and 30 or so Tomahawks across Natanz and Isfahan.
_heimdall · 2h ago
I heard the same as well, the reference was to an interview Trump gave on Fox.

My expectation is that it was 3 rounds of 2 MOPs, hedging bets and potentially cresting a larger hole than drilling a hole one bomb at a time.

jmyeet · 2h ago
So facts are thin on the ground currently. More will become clear in the coming days. I've heard different accounts all the way from 12 bunker busters were used on Fordo to none were used and the entrance was bombed after Iran was warne, kinda like a warning shot, to say "we can get you".

What Iran does next depends on the extent of the damage. It could be nothing. It could be a token response. It could be escalation.

But so far Iran has been the only rational actor in this region. Iran has been attacked with justification. Anytime someone says "preemptive strike" they mean "attack without justification". Their responses have been measured, rational, justified and proportionate.

When Israel tried to previously escalate the conflict with Iran and drag the US into war with Iran, Iran just didn't take the bait. And this is despite Israel assassinating government officials, bombing Iranian embassies and bombing Iran for absolutely no reason.

tbrownaw · 2h ago
> But so far Iran has been the only rational actor in this region. Iran has been attacked with justification. Anytime someone says "preemptive strike" they mean "attack without justification". Their responses have been measured, rational, justified and proportionate.

Either I'm misunderstanding (or misreading) something, or at least one of these sentences accidentallied a negation.

FridayoLeary · 4h ago
Thanks for trying to make this into a technical discussion.

I just realised that this bomb is not the same as the so called Mother of all bombs, which by the way has so far only been used once also by trump. That's the gbu 43. Why did they find it necessary to build an even bigger bomb? I wonder if they anticipated strikes on the me.

As to your other point iran seems to have a decent level of education. Building an entire home grown nuclear program under sanctions is impressive.

_heimdall · 2h ago
The MOP is meant for a different use than the MOAB, it isn't about size. The MOAB is meant for surface destruction, the MOP is a penetrating ordinance meant to go deep through rock before eventually exploding.
ggm · 4h ago
Different outcomes. Moab is fuel air explosion and causes massive pressure wave disruption, it's usable against tunnels but operates on a different principle. Bunker buster is an earth penetration weapon to make a camouflet happen and destroy structural integrity.
anonymars · 3h ago
Today's word of the day for me

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camouflet

> A camouflet, in military science, is an artificial cavern created by an explosion; if the resulting structure is open to the surface it is called a crater.[1]

jandrewrogers · 4h ago
The GBU-57 used here is an outgrowth of the demonstrated inadequacy of traditional bunker busters bombs used in the Middle East after 9/11. They needed something more specialized for deep penetration than the old bunker busters. This was kind of a stopgap weapon that works pretty well but the size limits the practicality.

US is developing a new generation of purpose-built deep penetration bombs that are a fraction of the size of the GBU-57.

hooo · 3h ago
What’s the core technology that enables them? It is crazy how deep the GBU-57 can get before detonating
ggm · 3h ago
Case hardening. Making something which if propelled fast enough (secondary issue) and with a G force resisting detonator (secondary issue) which has sufficient integrity and inertia to penetrate as deeply as possible before exploding. Materials science in making aerodynamic rigid, shock tolerant materials to fling at the ground.

I am sure the materials science aspects have come along since ww2, as has delivery technology, but I'd say how it goes fast, hits accurately and explodes is secondary to making a case survive impact and penetrate.

I would posit shaped charges could be amazing in this, if you could make big ones to send very high energy plasma out. I'm less sure depleted uranium would bring much to the table.

(Not in weapons engineering, happy to be corrected)

giantg2 · 3h ago
I'm not sure you would want a shaped charge unless you guarantee it was pointing in the right directionatthe right time. Modern bunker design usually includes deflection tactics.
kragen · 3h ago
According to public information, Eglin steel.

I was guessing either tungsten or depleted uranium, as for APDS, but the bomb's average density is only about 5 g/cc (14 tonnes in 3.1 m³). Length of 6.2 m times 5 tonnes per cubic meter gives a sectional density of 31 tonnes per square meter, which is about 15 meters of dirt. So Newton's impact depth approximation would predict a penetration depth one fourth of the reported 60-meter depth.

I don't know how to resolve the discrepancy. The plane wouldn't fly if the bomb weighed four times as much. Maybe most of the bomb's mass is in a small, dense shaft in the middle of the bomb, which detaches on impact?

creato · 59m ago
> Length of 6.2 m times 5 tonnes per cubic meter gives a sectional density of 31 tonnes per square meter, which is about 15 meters of dirt. So Newton's impact depth approximation would predict a penetration depth one fourth of the reported 60-meter depth.

This seems to assume that the weapon would penetrate until it displaced an equal amount of dirt by mass, which seems like nonsense. Why would that be the case?

kragen · 58m ago
Google it
jiggawatts · 12m ago
I did some quick calculations: The energy of the impact from the stored kinetic energy gained by falling fro 15,000m is about the same as half a kiloton of TNT going off. That's focused into a circle just 80cm in diameter.
barrkel · 2h ago
How much does refinements of shape, terminal velocity, target characteristics change the calculation?
kragen · 2h ago
I don't know.

Shape can change it to be arbitrarily bad; 14 tonnes of 5-micron-thick Eglin steel foil spread over a ten-block area wouldn't penetrate anything, just gently waft down, although it could give you some paper cuts. I suspect it can't make it much better, except in the sense of increasing sectional density by making the bomb longer and thinner, which we already know the results of.

Velocity doesn't enter into Newton's impact depth approximation at all. It does affect things in real life, but you can see from meteor craters that it, too, has its limits.

Target characteristics, no idea, but in a fast enough impact, everything acts like a gas. It's only at near-subsonic time scales that condensed-matter phenomena like elasticity come into play. Even at longer time scales the impact can melt things. This of course comes into conflict with the design objective of the bomb acting solid, so that it penetrates the soil instead of just mixing into it, and can still detonate when it comes to rest. I feel like buried plates of the same metal would have to be able to deflect it? And there are plenty of other high-strength alloys.

giantg2 · 3h ago
It's not that crazy. It's simple physics. Drop a 15 ton metal lawn dart from 50,000 feet and it has a lot of energy.
algorithmsRcool · 2h ago
No real secret sauce, the weapon weighs almost 30,000lbs and most of it is just hardened metal to make it heavy. The warhead is only ~5,300lbs of explosive
klipt · 3h ago
> an entire home grown nuclear program

It's not entirely home grown if they were part of the NPT is it? Signing the NPT (a pinky promise not to develop weapons) means other countries then help you develop nuclear energy, which of course has a lot of overlap to weapons tech...

the__alchemist · 3h ago

  - MOP: High penetration; most of its payload is not explosive. (Something heavy). Designed so its body, fuse, explosives etc remain intact after penetrating deep.
  - MOAB: Fuel air explosive for massive blast effect.
testrun · 2h ago
It seems that they have help from the Russians. Putin last week mentioned that there are quite a few Russian nuclear scientists in Iran.
econ · 2h ago
200+
PaulHoule · 5h ago
When I was doing a postdoc in Germany I shared an office with a woman from Morocco so my office was a meeting point for many islamic woman including one from Iran who complained bitterly about how women were treated in her country but who did get the opportunity to get an advanced education.
megous · 5h ago
How is this relevant to Trump bombing Iran?
bigyabai · 5h ago
It's the most-salient comment you can write without being [flagged] [dead] for "off-topic" conversation.
PaulHoule · 5h ago
The parent post was about Iranian women jobs getting jobs in engineering. Whatever restrictions are on them, they don't seem to have trouble getting STEM education.
owebmaster · 3h ago
You said it in a way that sounded like no woman is oppressed if they can get high level education.
anonymars · 3h ago
I took the contradiction as the point: that they are oppressed and yet, surprisingly, not with respect to educational opportunity

> including one from Iran who complained bitterly about how women were treated in her country but who did get the opportunity to get an advanced education

jordanb · 3h ago
Consent isn't going to manufacture itself.
gorgoiler · 20m ago
As I understand it, conventional explosives derive their destructive force from using chemical energy to vaporize material so quickly that it explodes forming a destructive shockwave.

With a kinetic energy impacted like the MOP bunker buster, does the material vaporize ahead of the munitions? Is the destructive shockwave the munition casing itself, or perhaps the vaporized breccia being pushed in front of it?

In some ways I imagine it like a nail being driven into the ground but my gut feeling is that, at such high impact energies, something more complicated is going on. For example, with small calibre ballistics you can have many kinds of terminal action: from square edged paper cutting rounds used to make clean holes in targets, to subsonic rounds transferring energy into a target, all the way up to supersonic rounds which drive a shock cone through a “soft” target to cause trauma.

markus_zhang · 5h ago
OK what was done was done. What should we expect the political fallout in Iran?
tptacek · 5h ago
It's really hard to say, but probably not good (there was an Atlantic article about this last week). Part of the dynamic here is the idea that the SL can't back down without losing so much domestic credibility that he puts the regime at risk; being in a shooting war with the West probably reinforces the regime's position. The flip side of this is that I don't think there were many signs that the opposition was in position to challenge the SL any time soon.
energy123 · 1h ago
They lack the capability to do much aside from disrupt shipping with SRBMs. They've taken down only one drone, which is one less than the Houthis. Their ballistic capability is heavily degraded. Their military leadership is gone. Their airforce is gone. Their air defense is gone. They're a paper tiger and I don't understand why people still think there's the prospect of some kind of grand retaliation. They're not holding back, they just can't do anything.
Aloisius · 1h ago
As if conventional responses are the only way to retaliate. We are talking about Iran here. They're all about asymmetric warfare.
energy123 · 1h ago
Their intelligence heads are also all gone. What kind of response do you envisage?
Aloisius · 1h ago
Well. Some guys with a tiny fraction of the funding Iran has managed to fly a few airliners into some buildings a few years back.

So, I imagine there are perhaps unconventional options available to a country which is fully willing to fund terrorist groups for decades against a country with a very large amount of largely unprotected infrastructure.

But who knows? It just seems a bit premature to argue Iran's defeat. Feels a bit... mission accomplished.

energy123 · 45m ago
They were already doing that in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq and Bahrain. They weren't holding back before, and they won't hold back after. But their ability to do that is now severely degraded. The officials overseeing these programs are now gone. The weapons they were sending to these groups are now reduced.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
Even more reason for them to go. It’s not good enough to continue taking it from Iran.
Aloisius · 58m ago
Ahh, trying to bomb your way to regime change in the Middle East. This feels so familiar. What could possibly go wrong?

If only those who advocated for war were forced to fight in them.

firesteelrain · 55m ago
I fought in Iraq.
Aloisius · 45m ago
Will you be volunteering to fight in Iran next? And any wars that fall out of it from a country with twice the population of Iraq being destabilized?
firesteelrain · 41m ago
I am already volunteering

But I dont think we are invading

Obama attacked Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. We aren’t there now are we?

December 1, 2012 - 300th drone strike on Pakistan.

Obama executed 563 drone strikes on Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan alone while in office.

seanmcdirmid · 32m ago
> Obama attacked Pakistan

I’m scratching my head on this because Pakistan was and is still a US ally, but I guess you mean the Bin Laden operation?

firesteelrain · 24m ago
nebula8804 · 9m ago
From your link: "However, despite the public opposition of Pakistani officials, multiple former Prime Ministers gave covert permission to the United States to carry out these attacks."

Makes sense, they were in the tribal areas where I assume the government was losing control of their monsters.

emilsedgh · 26m ago
Impressive appetite for war.
firesteelrain · 19m ago
Thanks!
Cyclone_ · 1h ago
Agree that they can't retaliate through their military, but if they did it would likely be through terror attacks on civilians.
farts_mckensy · 1h ago
What planet have you been living on the past 25 years? Iran has a population of almost 100 million as well as a sizeable diaspora across the world. If even a small percentage of the population engages in terrorism, that translates into thousands of potential actors. And unlike a state-to-state war, this is the kind of distributed, unpredictable threat that’s much harder to deter or contain.
awongh · 4h ago
afaik Iran is a very very different case demographically from Iraq and Afghanistan- in terms of being bigger, more modern and secular. It seems like those are dynamics that make it harder to go to war/stay in war.
ummonk · 4h ago
Quite the contrary, the religious populace is more likely to fall in line and decide the government knows best; it’s the secular populace that is demanding retaliation and critical of the government for not pursuing nuclearization already.
YZF · 2h ago
This doesn't sound right to me. Sources?

One data point I heard recently was 80% of Iranians oppose the current regime. That said I've also heard there is wide support for Iran to have a nuclear program. Presumably as a matter of national pride. I would still imagine the secular population to be less inclined to go to war with Israel in general.

The only Iranians I've personally talked to are ones that live in the west. They generally want to have peace with Israel and want to see the regime removed. Again very anecdotally they are still not happy about Israel bombing Iran but if the regime is actually somehow magically removed I don't think attacking Israel would be a high priority for a hypothetical secular or democratic regime.

tdeck · 2h ago
The fact that someone dislikes their government's current ruling regime doesn't mean they want the US to invade and install a puppet government instead. It's a false dichotomy.

> if the regime is actually somehow magically removed I don't think attacking Israel would be a high priority

Attacking Israel hasn't been a high priority for Iran. When Israel bombed an Iranian consulate, Iran referred it to the security council and waited, but the security council took no action. When Israel carries out an assassination within Iran, Iran did the same thing. Only after the UN refused to do anything to hold Israel to account did Iran retaliate. Then recently Israel launched a massive series of strikes against Iran, assassinating top members of its military and blowing up apartment buildings. It seems clear that the Iranian government didn't want to go to war with Israel, but at a certain point they ran out of options.

First letter: https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4043282/files/A_7...

Second letter: https://digitallibrary.un.org/nanna/record/4055716/files/S_2...

throwaway2037 · 1h ago

    > Attacking Israel hasn't been a high priority for Iran.
Really?

It is interesting that you made no mention of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, not Houthi in Yemen. All are well-known proxies for Iran to militarily harass Israel. They all receive direct funds and weapons from Iran.

sebmellen · 1h ago
lol. Watch Khameni’s morning broadcast where they have hundreds of delusional adherents shouting “Death to America, Death to Israel” 50 times in a row. I’m sure you’ll come out feeling the same way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqu0L0PGOIw

tdeck · 1h ago
Those are words. None of this refutes the clear pattern of escalations I described coming from Israel.
firesteelrain · 1h ago
It’s called defense
awongh · 4h ago
If you're in Iran it makes sense that you would want that if you feel that Israel is a threat. (But it doesn't make it a good idea).

I meant that demographically, if your populace isn't as poor, battle hardened and religious (like Afghanistan) maybe going into a long ground war is less politically feasible?

In Afghanistan they had basically just been fighting a war, where the last war in Iran was 30 years ago?

sealeck · 4h ago
> I meant that demographically, if your populace isn't as poor, battle hardened and religious (like Afghanistan) maybe going into a long ground war is less politically feasible?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Excerpts:

> 95,000 Iranian child soldiers were casualties during the Iran–Iraq War, mostly between the ages of 16 and 17, with a few younger

> The conflict has been compared to World War I: 171 in terms of the tactics used, including large-scale trench warfare with barbed wire stretched across trenches, manned machine gun posts, bayonet charges, human wave attacks across a no man's land, and extensive use of chemical weapons such as sulfur mustard by the Iraqi government against Iranian troops, civilians, and Kurds. The world powers United States and the Soviet Union, together with many Western and Arab countries, provided military, intelligence, economic, and political support for Iraq. On average, Iraq imported about $7 billion in weapons during every year of the war, accounting for fully 12% of global arms sales in the period.

awongh · 4h ago
That was 40 years ago though. So no one fighting on the ground in that war would be fighting on the ground in a war that starts today.
jjk166 · 2h ago
No, but they're the ones making the decisions about fighting such a war. The child soldiers in the 1980s are the politicians, the diplomats, and the generals in the 2020s.
awongh · 2h ago
They say that for WWI that it was one of the aspects that kept it "more civilized" (whatever that means in the context of war).
BolexNOLA · 2h ago
“…and we turned out just fine!”
ummonk · 4h ago
Ah I see what you mean. Yes they don’t have the birth rate (or the suicidal fanaticism) to sustain a decades long attritional war against an occupation like Afghanistan or Yemen can.

But given the size of the existing Iranian population and geography, and the lack of any significantly sized pre-existing anti-government military faction, I’m not sure the US military is large enough to even occupy Iran in the first place, absent a draft.

awongh · 3h ago
It would be reaaalllly stupid for the USA to invade Iran.

Hopefully Iran is the one that blinks for the reasons above.

MichaelZuo · 3h ago
Why would they blink when they know they are safe from a boots on the ground invasion for the forseeable future?
jt_b · 2h ago
I think they probably like having an GDP 25x larger than North Korea's. Gets a lot harder to export your products around the world when you're squared off against the US.
seanmcdirmid · 1h ago
They still trade oil with China, that is as much as the rest of the world they need. Of course, getting trade overland is a bit more difficult than by boat which is mostly cut off during a war.
MichaelZuo · 2h ago
How does that follow?
sebmellen · 1h ago
We don’t need to occupy Iran to absolutely decimate their economic output.
riffraff · 33m ago
What else are you going to do? Iran has been sanctioned by the US for decades.

Can you really sell "we'll be bombing civilians for years"?

gregoryl · 2h ago
> if you feel that Israel is a threat

Israel is very clearly, without any question or doubt, a serious threat to every one of its neighbors.

Ancapistani · 1h ago
Jordan seems pretty safe and happy to me.
nebula8804 · 4m ago
throwaway2037 · 1h ago
It has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt. Also, they signed the Abraham Accords with UAE and Bahrain. As far I know, there is no risk of conflict with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, nor Oman. Who else am I missing?

Half joking: (ignoring Trump's recent "threats") Is the US a threat to Canada or Mexico?

firesteelrain · 1h ago
Mexico is more of a threat. So many drugs flow North. It’s slowly killing generations of people for decades.
sebmellen · 1h ago
Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus? Really?
yencabulator · 3h ago
awongh · 3h ago
I don't know that much. But I have heard about how in terms of daily outlook a lot of Iranians aren't very religious. Esp. compared to other countries in the region.
dralley · 2h ago
On the other hand, the internal Cyber Police HQ got bombed today. If the institutions of internal suppression are sufficiently disrupted, maybe some form of resistance could be form. Who knows.
anigbrowl · 2h ago
People keep wishcasting this idea, but just because many/most Iranian people don't like the regime does not mean they want to be bombed by Israel/the USA.
throwup238 · 2h ago
The one thing we’ve learned over and over again since WWII: strategic bombing does not actually achieve any objective except temporarily disrupting logistics. If anything it strengthens the resolve of the people being bombed, giving the target regime more ammunition to carry on.
throwaway2037 · 1h ago
Did the US ever invade Japanese home islands (Kyushu, Shikoku, Honshu, Hokkaido) during the war? I am pretty sure they got some of Okinawa then dropped two nukes, then Japan surrendered. Do I have the order of events incorrect?
dralley · 2h ago
This is dumb. Strategic bombing did work in WWII, but it was never as effective as its advocates claimed at the time mostly because the bombs rarely hit anything important. They had to drop far more munitions than originally envisioned to actually do critical damage to infrastructure.

You can't really compare WWII dumb bombs dropped from 25,000 feet to modern precision weapons that can hit precisely the weakest point on a target, times thousands of targets, within the span of a few hours or days.

I mean, we literally just watched a massively successful strategic bombing campaign over the last week! Desert Storm was massively successful, Iraqi Freedom (the actual invasion, pre-nationbuilding part) was massively successful, Israel's bombing of Hezbollah was massively successful. I don't know how anyone can argue that strategic bombing with precision munitions isn't successful.

ivape · 1h ago
Cambodia says hi. No one did it better than Kissinger.
dralley · 35m ago
What part of "strategic precision bombing is not the same as carpet bombing" did you not grasp.

Yes, I agree that bombing random forest is not that useful.

ronnier · 3h ago
With all respect please type out SL. I and many others don’t know what that means. For us it’s just two random letters thrown into a sentence
moosedev · 3h ago
I assume it's Supreme Leader.
citizenkeen · 3h ago
Supreme Leader
standardUser · 3h ago
> What should we expect the political fallout in Iran?

The Iranian regimes favorite enemy just played their part to perfection, so we should expect that to compel the majority of Iranians to rally behind their government in the face of a brutal foreign invasion by not one but BOTH of their standard-bearer arch-nemeses.

jimbob45 · 1h ago
so we should expect that to compel the majority of Iranians to rally behind their government in the face of a brutal foreign invasion by not one but BOTH of their standard-bearer arch-nemeses.

Organized how? There’s no internet. I hope Kinko’s is still open because they’re going to need a lot of leaflets to organize anything meaningful.

cbg0 · 24m ago
There's still television and radio.
narrator · 3h ago
Propaganda isn't everything. Iran having a nuclear bomb or not having one does count for more than whether we played our part in the bad guy in their narrative.
jjk166 · 2h ago
Well that pre-supposes that Iran was actively working on acquiring the bomb, that this course of action would stop them from getting the bomb, and that Iran having the bomb is actually a severe issue.
mensetmanusman · 2h ago
It’s impossible to know, all we do know is that they were orders of magnitude above the enrichment required for anything else except bombs.
Beefin · 27m ago
you willing to take that risk?
einpoklum · 6m ago
Are you suggesting that states may bomb each other when they don't want to "take the risk" of the other state possibly carrying out a dangerous attack on them in the future?

Plus, the nuclear issue is the excuse, not the reason. Palestine, Lebanon, Syria (+ regime change, sorta), Iraq (+ regime change), Afghanistan and now Iran. All attacked repeatedly and extensively over the past two decades.

paxys · 4h ago
There isn't going to be political fallout. The Iranian regime has systemically wiped out all dissent over the last decade and a half. The remaining population is all either pro-Khamenei or too powerless to speak out. If anything an unprovoked war will give the country stronger reason to distrust the west and rally behind their leader.
sfifs · 3h ago
I would worry about the fallout to the rest of us - Persian Gulf closed to shipping,maybe oil fields attacked, Oil at 300, Recession.
nirav72 · 2h ago
Iran doesn’t quite have the capability to shutdown the shipping lanes in the PG. At least not in any way thats sustainable for a long period. A few days at best. A USN CG would put a stop to it in a hurry.
awnird · 2h ago
Didn't you guys say the same thing about the Houthis? How do you still fall for this?
nirav72 · 32m ago
The Houthi threat was in and around the red sea. Iran’s naval reach is limited to with whatever it is they call a “Navy” in the Gulf of Oman. Almost on other side of the Arabian peninsula. Also the Houthis got pummeled once the U.S showed up. The U.S didn’t even continue a sustained campaign to wipe them out. Something it is more than capable of doing with just a single carrier group. That’s not even counting the Saudis getting involved.
philistine · 1h ago
I chose a very good time to buy an electric car.
yyyk · 4h ago
For now, nothing (everyone is kinda busy).

The first infliction point would be to see whether the regime intends to strike at US forces or do they intend to climb down. IMHO, that would be suicidal, but it doesn't mean they won't do it.

The second point is when they decide to end the war (they aren't doing well), and all the accusations start flying. Then there'll be political fallout.

yibg · 1h ago
Optimistically given how much Trump loves attention and declaring victories:

- Trump declares mission accomplished. Looks tough to his base, appeases Israel and calls it a day

- Ditto for Israel. Declares Iran's nuclear ambitions over and re-affirms the friendship between the US and Israel

- Iran lobs a few more missiles at Israel in retaliation to provide legitimacy at home and moves on

Everyone declares victory and gets an off ramp.

locallost · 26m ago
Short term I expect the people of Iran to unite around their hatred for the aggressor, making one of the proclaimed goals of "regime change" impossible.
TeeMassive · 4h ago
The point of Iran of enriching U beyond civilian use but not actually going full military grade was leverage. They're the only Shiia super power in the reigion. Nobody likes them.

So what can we expect:

* a ground invasion is pretty much out of the question considering the geography or Iran and its neighboring countries.

* Iran destroys every oil production and transport sites in the region (say good by to your election, Republican Party)

* they could fast produce the bomb and test it underground as a final warning

* OR they fail and resort to more desperate measure like a dirty bomb

* OR they fail and there is some sort of regime change

* Or there is some kind of extended war of attrition and it makes the refugee crisis from the past 20 years seem like it was a mere tourist wave.

In any case, this will accentuate the Qaddafi effect and more nations will follow the North Korea option of nuclear "unauthorized" nuclear dissuasion, which is also the case for Israel by the way. Talking of which, Israel will become politically radioactive in the world. Its support is already negative in nearly all countries and has dropped significantly in the US such as the evangelicals.

handfuloflight · 4h ago
> Its support is already negative in nearly all countries and has dropped significantly in the US such as the evangelicals.

You mean they changed their mind and want to postpone the Armageddon now?

RickJWagner · 3h ago
Evangelical here.

That statement is ignorant.

handfuloflight · 3h ago
Do you speak for them all? If you do, please clarify.
RickJWagner · 2h ago
I speak for myself, of course. And the people I know in my community.

Do you believe all evangelicals believe the same thing, and that we want the end of the world to come immediately? Where would you get such a strange idea? I can assure you it is an ignorant thought.

eddythompson80 · 25m ago
Thank you for speaking up man. I'm an evangelical atheist and get sick of people generalizing what all evangelicals think too.
anigbrowl · 2h ago
C'mon man, you know there are a lot of biblical literalists who are all in on that end times stuff even if you and your social circle don't subscribe to it.
handfuloflight · 2h ago
Did I say they all believed in the same thing? I would not make such an absurd claim when Christianity itself is so fractured.

Take it up with the sources listed in these articles:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/us-evangelical...

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseupr/2025/02/07/the-politics-of-ap...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/05/14/h...

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1197956512

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Zionism

You are clearly ignorant of what views come under the heading of the evangelicals.

RickJWagner · 2h ago
You said “you mean they changed their mind”. Who were you referring to?

I am obviously proof standing before you that not all evangelicals believe what you suggested.

So who were you referring to?

skissane · 1h ago
I think when a lot of people here say "evangelicals" they actually mean "dispensational premillennialists"–who are a significant chunk of "evangelicals", but not the whole

But to be fair to the dispensational premillennialists, even many of them would consider the idea that Israeli (or US) military action is somehow "accelerating the end-times" to be distasteful – whether or not they think that action is justified in itself.

jrflowers · 2h ago
Could be talking about, for one example, Christians United for Israel, a single evangelical organization with ten million American members.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christians_United_for_Israel

Are those ten million Evangelicals somehow not part of the mainstream? Like is it ten million outcasts that the majority of evangelicals do not claim? That seems unlikely due to the fact that the count of self-reported Christian Zionists is in the multiple tens of millions in the US.

https://rpl.hds.harvard.edu/news/2021/10/26/video-the-christ...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-sizeable-us-demographic-many...

What I think is going on here is you either do want to speak for all evangelicals, and want to convince people that they all believe what you believe, or you are somehow part of a community in which you haven’t heard of or spoken to nearly any of its members. These are the only two ways to make sense of the “who are you talking about?” question; you are either being willfully untruthful about tens of millions of evangelicals, or you simply, somehow, haven’t heard about tens of millions of evangelicals.

No comments yet

handfuloflight · 2h ago
They, as in those evangelicals who subscribe to apocalyptic accelerationism.
hedora · 2h ago
A quick internet search says 80% of white male evangelicals voted for Trump in 2024. I assume they’re referring to that, since project 2025 is exactly what they accused the evangelicals of supporting.

Still 80 != 100, and not all evangelicals are white males. Alienating the reasonable evangelicals isn’t going to help fix stuff.

tolerance · 1h ago
You're reacting emotionally to handfuloflight's witty remark and now you're caught in this strait-laced and dignified bit to mask you being offended by the remark and caught making a very poor argument.

Would it be fair for me to assume that you are an Evangelical who doesn't support Israel's genocide under the theological pretenses that other Evangelicals are known for (i.e., the "apocalyptic accelerationism" handfuloflight refers to)?

Would it be fair for me to assume that handfuloflight's remark was solid but fell short in the generalizing way that jokes often lay, because of the possibility that there are Evangelicals who don't support Israel's genocide under the theological pretenses that other Evangelical's are known for because it's a terrible look and indicative of the contemporary fractures that capture the faith at large?

Both of ya'll need to be more forthright with your positions instead of performing this constipated do-si-do along the HN guidelines. Give me a good flame war, get flagged, ring up dang and the new dude, or just downvote each other.

handfuloflight · 1h ago
I came for the flame war, I stayed for the analysis.
jrflowers · 2h ago
What evangelical church doesn’t believe in the second coming or the significance of the holy land?

Like your pastor, at your evangelical church, preaches that these things are not literal?

Edit: As someone that grew up evangelical, and has had evangelical friends my entire life, it is very strange to see someone casually say that the rejection of biblical inerrancy is an evangelical thing. It stands in stark contrast to the theology that’s fundamental to the faith.

It is literally as odd as seeing someone get mad when another person says that sainthood or the Eucharist are fundamental tenets to Catholicism. I would certainly want them to clarify what exactly their priest was saying to make them feel otherwise.

It is a real religion with a real theology! “Evangelical” isn’t a vibe, it’s a distinct system of worship! Biblical prophecy is very fundamental and a strongly-held belief and value that is taught in every evangelical church I have ever heard of!

lunar-whitey · 1h ago
There are evangelical movements within American mainline Protestant denominations that broadly hold to amillenialism and do not concern themselves with contemporary speculation regarding eschatology. They receive less attention nationally because they are politically irrelevant.
jrflowers · 1h ago
Amillennialism does not necessarily mean a wholesale rejection of the notion of biblical prophecy. If anything it is largely a disagreement about what the fulfillment of biblical prophecy will look like.

That aside, of course there are always small movements in every faith, but that isn’t usually super meaningful or helpful when talking about the larger group. I’m sure you can find some Catholics that don’t believe in transubstantiation but nobody is out here painting the church as being Eucharist-neutral.

lunar-whitey · 1h ago
I would not characterize entities like the United Methodist Church or the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America as small movements. Both are evangelical churches in the historical sense and neither has a specific position on contemporary political entities as they relate to Biblical prophecies.
dh2022 · 4h ago
For me the last few days show how militarily-impotent Iran is. Even if they had the nuclear bomb they would not be able to use it against Israel-because right now Iran had no air-defenses and Israel is rumored to have about 100 nuclear warheads.

I do not think Iran has any military options. Because it is not liked the Iranian regime does not have any political options either. So I have no idea what will happen-which makes the current situation so interesting to watch.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 · 3h ago
<< For me the last few days show how militarily-impotent Iran is.

I am confused. So it is impotent or the greatest threat in the middle east?

mgiampapa · 3h ago
They are a threat as a terrorist, not as a military force.
dralley · 2h ago
Well, it certainly was the greatest threat. It's unlikely to remain so.
unethical_ban · 3h ago
Did dh say it was the greatest threat?

All this talk of Iran getting a nuke to hit Israel... doesn't the Iranian government know that it would instantly be destroyed the moment they used a nuclear weapon of any kind?

None of this makes sense.

roughly · 2h ago
> doesn't the Iranian government know that it would instantly be destroyed the moment they used a nuclear weapon of any kind?

YES. They Absolutely know this. The point of an Iranian nuke is deterrence, and the reason Israel finds that intolerable is that Israeli policy is to maintain the ability to unilaterally raise the stakes of a conflict past any of its neighbors.

invalidname · 1h ago
That just isn't true and assumes Western type of logic.

Iran doesn't just call death to America and death to Israel in every rally. They mean it. When they publish photos of their facilities I was shocked to see the US flag, then I understood it's on the floor. They walk on the Israeli and US flag every day in these places as an insult. As a westerner I find this pretty hilarious... But they are serious.

For reference I will point you to the Huttis... The main damage they do to Israel is waking up Israelis due to a missile alarm. As a result they lose hundreds of lives in bombings and crucial resources. That doesn't deter them. Hell, they don't even like the Palestinians since they are Sunni... It's a matter of being part of a Jihad.

Notice that this isn't true for all Muslims. The extremists are a death cult who believe that dying in a Jihad will send all of them to heaven. If they get a bomb it is very possible they won't care about the consequences in the same way a "normal" country cares about them.

roughly · 1h ago
No, the western kind of logic here is to assume the people we’ve taken as enemies are irrational and fanatical caricatures, instead of normal-ass humans who are attempting to maintain agency over their lives and responding to the actions of those around them.

I think if you look at the actions of Iran over the last 20 years and attempt to categorize it as one of either a geopolitical foe attempting to maintain some degree of control over their local surroundings OR an implacable suicidal death cult, one of those theories is going to fit the facts a whole lot better than the other, as evidenced by the fact that the Iranian regime is still in existence, despite all but daily attempts by both the US and Israel to bait them into attempting “suicide by global cop.”

dralley · 2h ago
86 year old fanatical Islamists don't necessarily operate on the same principles of game theory as the rest of us. Mutual self-destruction is not something they fear to the same degree.
roughly · 2h ago
And yet, for twenty goddamn years now, they’ve been negotiating with us and have _not_ built a nuclear weapon, despite repeated threats and provocations by the US. Iran is not an irrational actor. They are a state under siege by a superpower and its violent regional partners, and have acted in the fashion one would expect from a state in that position.
dralley · 2h ago
I mean, you're also forgetting the fact that Israel sends assassins after their top nuclear scientists every year or two, and cyberattacks every few years, and "mysterious accidents".

It's a bit like saying "but Y2K never happened, they must have been exaggerating" or "but nobody talks about the Ozone hole or acid rain anymore so it must have never been a real problem".

klipt · 2h ago
How much plausible deniability would Iran have if they gave a nuke to Hezbollah who fired it over the border at Tel Aviv?

"That was Hezbollah, not us!"

You might say using a proxy would be a hopelessly transparent ploy, but Hezbollah has been firing other Iranian supplied weapons at Israel for years and yet many people swear up and down that Iran has "never attacked Israel". So apparently the proxy ploy does work on a lot of people.

crystal_revenge · 2h ago
This is a statement that's fairly ignorant of Iran's long running military strategy. The military situation is much more complex and nuanced that you're laying it out.

One of Iran's strengths, for example, has always been lots of cheap missiles. People often point out how few of the missiles actually hit their targets in Israel, but that's missing the point: every intercepted missile costs orders of magnitude more to intercept than it does to create and launch. The Iron Dome is very effective, but is both incredibly expensive to run and, most importantly, loses efficacy over time as it's resources are depleted.

Nobody knows exactly how close Iran is to a nuclear weapon, but most analysts that I've read that the time to actually being able to launch a weapon is in terms of weeks. So part of Iran's strategy will always been draw attacks until it is ready to potentially retaliate.

On top of that, this is not a video game. Iran does not want to use a nuclear missile, nobody really does since it like ends, at least regionally, in everyone losing. Part of the balance of the conflict in the middle East in Iran is precisely not putting them in a potion where the use of nuclear weapons suddenly becomes rational. This is exactly why we in America have been nervous about open aggression towards Iran. Not because we might not win, but because it backs them into a corner where nuclear options suddenly become more rational.

> Because it is not liked the Iranian regime does not have any political options either.

Just one tiny example of how this is false: because of US sanctions China gets a enormous (estimated at around 15%) amount of their oil, very cheaply, from Iran. A serious threat to Iran then becomes a serious threat to Chinese oil supplies.

The issue is extremely complicated and nuanced, so any takes that are binary are missing a lot of information. By striking Iran we are pushing this this issue into places we haven't really explored yet, with consequences nobody truly knows.

timeon · 26m ago
> does not want to use a nuclear missile, nobody really does

One country already did.

invalidname · 2h ago
Exactly.

One of the main reasons for the Israeli attack was the mounting stockpile of missiles. Even the small fraction of conventional missiles that hit Israel created a great deal of damage. They were on route to create enough missiles and launchpads that would make Israels air defense irrelevant. The equivalent of two nuclear bombs.

fallingknife · 4h ago
They're not going to escalate. They're already getting their ass handed to them by Israel and the last thing they want is to throw down with their other enemies in the region right now. You are correct that there will be no ground invasion, so there is no existential threat to the government. This means they have no incentive to do something stupid that will make anyone change their mind on that invasion.
handfuloflight · 4h ago
> so there is no existential threat to the government.

Do you think sitting by and doing nothing will not pose an existential threat to the government by way of constituent discontent?

TeeMassive · 3h ago
And now every regime who feared getting regime-changed will have an interest of developing the bomb. Gaddafi effect is real.
TeeMassive · 3h ago
It's a country of 100M people. They're not just gonna be have their "ass handed to them", just like it didn't happen in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq1, Iraq2, Yemen and Afghanistan. Countries do adapt to bombings, especially when there's a superpower nearby.

Also if they "were just about to have the bomb" then they could develop it and use it after. So there is the conflicting position that they are both insane to use it and but both sane to not escalate the conflict. This is where most pro-war arguments fail the basic logic test in the nuclear bomb era.

abletonlive · 3h ago
"just like it didn't happen in korea, vietnam, iraq1, iraq2, yemen and afghanistan."

that's a fancy retelling of history you got there. MILLIONs died in those wars and less than 100K US troops died. Out of those wars, iraq 1 led to iraq defeat and withdrawal from kuwait. iraq 2 had saddam dragged through the streets and a regime change within 3 weeks, yemen was counterterrorism - there's no regime to topple, in afghanistan the taliban regime was removed for 20 years and only once the troops were withdrawn were they able to crawl back.

the current Iranian regime is over.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 · 3h ago
Possibly, but the cost that regime being over is likely similar to that US paid with war in Afghanistan and Iraq, which, and I am being very, very charitable, was too much blood for too little gain.
Cyph0n · 2h ago
Forcing Iran into submission is not going be as easy as it was in Iraq.

One of the key reasons behind why Iraq fell so quickly is that Saddam made all the wrong moves leading up the invasion.

By that point, he had alienated every single potential ally (including Iran) - and virtually all states in the region were supportive of the invasion, regardless of their positions in public.

Not to mention that the invasion of Iraq was ultimately a failure anyways..

abletonlive · 2h ago
> By that point, he had alienated every single potential ally (including Iran)

It's so funny that you can't see the parallels

Cyph0n · 2h ago
Iran has been escalating reasonably, and is clearly acting as a sovereign state should. You can project all you want, but Saddam was playing another ballgame.

Unfortunately, international law means nothing these days, so it might have been a mistake to not establish deterrence sooner.

Regardless, Iran is not going to be as easy to topple as some people might think.

anigbrowl · 2h ago
You should talk. How much of a coalition do you think the US can assemble right now, after alienating numerous allies over the last 6 months?
TeeMassive · 2h ago
KIAs ratio is not what determine a war's success
amanaplanacanal · 3h ago
So do you think the US is going to put the boots on the ground to make that happen? Even Trump isn't that stupid. Or maybe he is. I guess we'll see.
yonisto · 2h ago
This is a fanatic regime. I will have its people eating grass before giving up on anything.
YZF · 2h ago
Iran and Libya are very different places both in terms of history and current day.

I would expect Israel to win the political battle as well. The world likes winners and Israel is going to be a winner here. It winning will also enable it to address some of the issues that are a concern. Without Iran backing up Palestinian militants it is going to be easier for Israel to make some concessions that it couldn't otherwise.

You can already see a change of tone in Europe. Especially that Iran is aligned with Russia against Ukraine.

mikewarot · 3h ago
It's my suspicion that most of the 60% enriched material was moved prior to the attack(Edit: which recent statements from Iran seem to support), and now undergoing enrichment to 90% in a facility the US doesn't know about. Enrichment gets easier as the percentage goes up.

I expect (ok, I WORRY) a major US city to have a nuke set off in it by Iran within the next 5 years.

It didn't have to be this way, we had a working treaty and inspections regime until Trump pulled us out of it.

Decades of effort to prohibit nuclear proliferation have just gone down the toilet.

EDIT: Ya'll are right, the idea of them doing a test and going public makes a lot more sense.

roughly · 2h ago
> I expect a major US city to have a nuke set off in it by Iran within the next 5 years.

This absolutely will not happen. Iran will make a nuke, and they will test it very publicly, and then the political math in the Middle East changes overnight. The point of a nuclear bomb for a country like Iran (or Pakistan, or North Korea) is deterrence, not attack - if Iran set off a nuke in an American city, the regime would not survive, and it’s possible the country would not.

Edit: to put that differently, the only way an Iranian bomb goes off in an American city is if an American bomb goes off in an Iranian city.

mensetmanusman · 2h ago
“ The point of a nuclear bomb for a country like Iran (or Pakistan, or North Korea) is deterrence”

I hope this is true, but Iran has a hard time convincing people because their theocratic elements are suicidal from a secular standpoint. Eg their religious messaging is confounding.

krainboltgreene · 1h ago
I think you have a typo, you wrote “Iran” instead of “the United States”.
invalidname · 1h ago
You are lumping together three very different countries into a western mindset of deterrence.

While Pakistan is Muslim they are not the same as Iran in any way. The current rulers of Iran do not operate by western logic and would be consider a "holy death" as a direct path to heaven.

Iranian populace isn't behind that, the people themselves are reasonably secular and aren't behind that. However, the leadership is dangerous and you should not assume they would use western logic.

r14c · 2h ago
I really don't understand why the US didn't continue their talks with Iran. They were clearly open to joining a non-proliferation treaty at the time. They also have a religious law against developing nukes in addition to their other tentative agreements and cooperation with IAEA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei%27s_fatwa_against...

I don't expect Iran to use any nukes that they develop though. Having nukes puts a country in a special diplomatic class. Using them is almost never beneficial. The status quo risks for nuclear programs is stronger sovereignty, which would drastically shift the regional balance of power and possibly tip the scales on a broad international level.

mensetmanusman · 2h ago
I think Iran’s mercenaries eventually blew up the entire diplomatic strategy. It turns out they should have stop funding entities that shoot missiles at population centers so often. It was a reckless strategy that failed.
IAmGraydon · 2h ago
You are assuming they’re rational actors, and extremist religious ideologies are by their very nature irrational.
mdni007 · 1h ago
Exactly, they should be rational just like our secular politicians.

"As a Christian growing up in Sunday school, I was taught from the Bible, ‘Those who bless Israel will be blessed, and those who curse Israel will be cursed.’ And from my perspective, I’d rather be on the blessing side of things.”

- Ted Cruz, a U.S. senator

"There is a reason the first time I shook Netanyahu's hand, I didn't wash it until I could touch the heads of my children."

- Randy Fine, a U.S. congressman

And of course, there's the President of the United States who's known to be completely rational.

all_factz · 2h ago
Iran has shown itself a rational actor time and time again by not escalating against continued provocation by Israel and the US, knowing that to do so would be to enter a conflict it can’t win. That’s not the behavior of an irrational actor who’s willing to fight whatever the cost, even total annihilation (which would be what happened if Iran nuked the US/Israel).

They may be religious fanatics, but they’re not idiots.

margalabargala · 1h ago
Iran funded Hamas who did October 7th. That is the original escalation that kicked all this off. The region was (relatively) quiet until then.
all_factz · 1h ago
October 7th was a reaction to Trump’s “Abraham Accords” which benefitted Sunni countries at the expense of Iran.
PeterHolzwarth · 2h ago
I don't think this makes much sense, due to the scale of the two parties: Iran somehow figuring out how to get a nuke onto a US city would invite complete and total annihilation of Iran -- and the world would largely support it. Iran knows this.

Nukes among peers aren't there to be used. They are there to immobilize and freeze a layer of conflict.

klipt · 3h ago
> I expect a major US city to have a nuke set off in it by Iran within the next 5 years.

Why would Iran do something so suicidal?

jimbob45 · 1h ago
I had the same expectation myself but now everyone will be looking out for that type of attack.
IAmGraydon · 2h ago
Do you really think that they wouldn’t have done this by now if they could?
archsurface · 4h ago
Reversion to mean. Pre-78.
sorcerer-mar · 4h ago
I like this answer because of its circular logic (therefore impenetrable).

Simply declare a prior good state to be "the mean," then all we need to do is let mean reversion work its magic!

archsurface · 4h ago
I like this answer because you pretend you're arguing against the comment without actually addressing anything.
margalabargala · 1h ago
They addressed all substance in the comment though
archsurface · 25m ago
If only you had some.
andrepd · 4h ago
The dictatorship that was so hated that it led to a plurality of people supporting an Ayatollah?
fastball · 1h ago
Impressively prescient on the part of the Top Gun sequel. This is basically the plot, just with more close calls and less "well that was kinda easy".
0xbadcafebee · 1h ago
Could be a good way to boost the economy amidst a trade war while simultaneously doubling-down on protectionism. On the one hand we usually profit from wars, on the other hand we lose trading partners when we do our usual human rights violations shtick.

I predict this is a ploy to try to get us into a war, so Trump can have his third term, rejecting calls to step down "because we're at war". It's a little early, but our kids are already used to being in 20-year-long pointless wars in the Middle East.

PeterHolzwarth · 35m ago
On the contrary, nobody wants a nuclear armed Iran. It's been an open not-even-secret for decades that America is very active, on many fronts, in trying to delay or remove Iran's growing capability to create nuclear weapons.
Ozzie_osman · 1h ago
I imagine every reasonably-sized country looking at this and thinking: "well, we'd be idiots not to have nuclear weapons by any means necessary."

This will be one of the single-most proliferation-inducing events in history, maybe save Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

energy123 · 1h ago
The opposite. They're thinking "if we try to do this, we will die, because their intelligence knows where we are at all times".

This war is quite paradigm shifting in multiple ways, and I'm hopeful it serves as a strong deterrent. No longer will soldiers be the first to die. The leadership is now first to die, and within a week. That significantly alters the incentives for pursuing war. This was never the case until today.

riffraff · 10m ago
Knowing "where you are" is irrelevant. Iraq was invaded under the pretense of having weapons of mass destruction, so the rational thing to do is having them anyway, cause the US can bomb you anytime if you don't. Meanwhile, North Korea is 100% fine.
seanmcdirmid · 1h ago
Just wait for China to get rich enough to counter American military dominance, and then ally with them for protection. Iran is already half way to becoming a Chinese vassal state, either it falls apart or becomes one completely after this.
_heimdall · 1h ago
This is the ultimate gamble here. On one path, those considering a nuke could be deterred after realizing the Trump administration is willing to use that as a reason to attack. On the other path, countries could either decide the risk of attack is necessary or estimate the risk of future administrations acting similarly as low enough to go for the bomb.
kilroy123 · 1h ago
To be fair. I think what happened in Ukraine did far more to cause nations to think like this.

The US convinced Ukraine to give up its nukes and return them to Russia. Russia was supposed to never attack in exchange.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

selivanovp · 34m ago
US was supposed to respect Ukraine sovereignty also. And they staged two revolutions there, placing their puppets in charge.
BLKNSLVR · 41m ago
Russia isn't attacking, it's reclaiming it's rightful territory.

According to Putin...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-21/putin-says-whole-of-u...

/s in case it's not obvious.

Putin is a sociopath, which equips him with all the necessary tools to charm the easily flattered.

viccis · 3m ago
The Russia-Ukraine war already did that. Ukraine let us talk them into giving up their nukes, and see what happened.

Iran having nukes would mean peace in the Middle East.

TheAlchemist · 1h ago
Yep, that's how it ends. I expect, there will be many many countries with nukes in 2030. Even a country like Poland, which is part of Nato, announced that it will seek to acquire nuclear weapons in the future.
thoughtstheseus · 1h ago
South Korea looks like they are pursing nukes already.
IceHegel · 15m ago
This is obviously correct. Nuclear weapons = sovereignty. UN recognition is a piece of paper.

9 countries exist. So much for self-determination.

muzani · 1h ago
We started thinking that after seeing Palestine get bombed and US vetoing every attempt at aid. We used to be a neutral country since independence, but Ukraine and Gaza proved that the world will just stand aside and watch the neutral countries get exterminated by nuclear nations.
BLKNSLVR · 30m ago
Strangely (maybe), the US seems to be vassal to Israel.

The extent to which condemning something approaching genocide is accused of being an anti-semitic position is... telling.

Not to say that there aren't ridiculous levels of complexity to the whole situation, but the pendulum is being held very far to one side by the king.

dundarious · 1h ago
I think you put a few too many negatives in that first sentence, and are missing a clause. As-is, you're just imagining them not thinking something.
Ozzie_osman · 1h ago
Thanks. I was missing another negative but I opted to just take them all out.
FuckButtons · 57m ago
Any self respecting dictator could see the writing on the wall after Gadaffi, or for that matter, Sadam. A domestic nuclear program though is still not a simple proposition.
I_am_tiberius · 1h ago
I wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea is now doubling its efforts and even offering Russia additional resources to help it acquire nuclear capabilities.
shepherdjerred · 1h ago
Doesn't NK already have nukes?
I_am_tiberius · 21m ago
You're right. Didn't know!
kelipso · 1h ago
More means better deterrence I guess. Didn’t China decide to build a shitton more to match the US numbers recently?
jimbob45 · 1h ago
You say that but Iran couldn’t even escalate their rhetoric post-strike because “Every American is now a legitimate target” is now a tired refrain rather than a feared declaration.

The lesson here is not to make idle threats against half of the world that you don’t honestly mean.

firesteelrain · 1h ago
Iran can’t project power. Other than employing their terrorist proxies - they are in a no win situation.

Russia and China can’t project power either. Only few countries can and the US is the best at it.

partiallypro · 1h ago
History disagrees with you, and Iran is the #1 state sponsor of terrorism. They were even providing Russia with arms for their invasion of Ukraine. Let's not equate them with many others, such as Poland, etc. Iran absolutely should not be allowed under any circumstances to have a nuclear weapon. If they were as close as what intelligence seems to indicate (though I know that's hard to believe after the Iraq war, but we aren't in a ground war so the burden of proof is understandably less) then I frankly don't think it would have mattered if it were Kamala, Biden, or Trump in office. The facilities were getting bombed.

The scenario was already war gamed during the Biden administration, it was already a possible outcome. The G7 already backed this idea that Iran can't have this before, and they'll do it again. The US doesn't stand alone on this, Saudi Arabia and basically everyone in the region and world doesn't want Iran having a nuke sans Russia/China. I'm not even sure if Russia/China really want it either. It's just common sense.

PeterHolzwarth · 12m ago
This is absolutely the case. We've been collectively fighting to stop Iran from getting nukes for decades. In much of the middle east, Iran is considered a serious enemy. Iran getting nuclear weapons would mean the rest of the middle east would instantly feel compelled to get their own.
IceHegel · 35m ago
I voted for Trump. I'd support his impeachment now.

He has betrayed his core by letting Israel suck our country into another Middle Eastern conflict, after promising to do the opposite.

PeterHolzwarth · 17m ago
I understand what you mean, but we've been in this conflict for decades already. America and loads of other countries have been working to stop Iran from achieving nuclear weapons. Remember that in much of the middle east, Iran is considered an enemy. A nuclear armed Iran would result in the rest of the middle east rapidly pursuing nukes by way of defense against Iran - a country most of the middle east views as a combatant and an enemy.

I won't comment or discuss who you voted for - that isn't germane here. What is important is that America has been working for decades - often quite blatantly, sometimes with the thinnest veneer of deniability - to stop Iran from getting nukes. We're now just saying the quiet part out loud.

SG- · 18m ago
voting a bozo in gets you bozo outcomes.
greenavocado · 3h ago
Fascinating how this happened merely weeks after Iran-China railway link opened (Reported on May 25, 2025. Link below.). It directly threatens US hegemony by providing a faster and more secure land corridor for trade, particularly Iranian oil and gas exports to China and Chinese goods flowing into Iran and the broader Middle East. This bypasses critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, where the US Navy traditionally exerts significant control, reducing reliance on these US-dominated sea routes. Furthermore, the railway facilitates sanctioned Iranian oil exports to China and enables increased Chinese investment in Iran, undermining the effectiveness of US economic sanctions as a primary tool of foreign policy. It accelerates Eurasian integration under China's Belt and Road Initiative, deepening economic and strategic ties across the continent and fostering the development of a US-independent economic bloc linking China, Iran, Turkey, Central Asia, and Russia. The railway physically connects two major US adversaries, China and Iran, enabling easier movement of goods, resources, and potentially military or logistical support, thereby strengthening an anti-Western coalition challenging US global dominance. In essence, the railway erodes US control over trade routes, weakens sanctions, empowers a rival Eurasian bloc centered on China, and solidifies an opposing strategic axis.

https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/05/25/3320800/freigh...

BLKNSLVR · 52m ago
Possibly trivial additional point is that the oil traded between Iran and China using Chinese currency, not the US dollar.
twelve40 · 3h ago
doubt it's really game-changing. Rail is more expensive and the three other countries in the middle can be strong-armed and harassed into stalling or cutting this off.
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 · 3h ago
Depends, cutting off strait of hormuz could easily change that calculus a bit. Things can get unpredictable from here on now.
csomar · 1h ago
Afghanistan? Probably not. The other two are bordering China. I highly doubt they'll bow to the US instead.
twelve40 · 22m ago
I don't think it's going through Afghanistan. It's probably just re-using Soviet railroads. But it is going through Turkmenistan, which is one of the craziest insane and most bizarre and unpredictable places one can think of, and Uzbekistan, which used to happily host US troops in Khanabad. Just a matter of some cash and some threats of sanctions with either one of those two.
nebula8804 · 2h ago
Belt & Road continues to fray as China shows reluctance to help its partners when in need. China seems to only come to the aid of anyone after embarrassment or pressure or if it directly helps them. I'm reminded a few years back when Pakistan was suffering from terrible floods, China initially sent its very best thoughts and prayers but it wasn't until after the US started to send aid that China finally got involved. Ultimately all packages from the US seemed to have exceeded the Chinese total but I am unsure. If countries can get away by playing both the US and China off of each other great, but if you need help just from China, good luck.
stackedinserter · 2h ago
> more secure land corridor for trade, particularly Iranian oil and gas exports to China

It will require absurd number of trains that will run empty 1/2 of the time (unless you'll find a way to pack "Chinese goods" into tank cars)

neilv · 2h ago
In that reporting stream, at 22:58, "White House releases photos of Trump in Situation Room"[1], I'm struck that we are in a timeline that is not only dark, but surreal.

It sounds trite to say from a position of relative comfort and distance, but I can only hope that someday our better selves will find peace with each other, around the globe.

But we won't be able to undo all the injustices and atrocities that we inflicted upon each other. We know these wrongs as we are doing them, and they will remain upon us.

[1] https://i.imgur.com/sR8YhcY.png

PeterHolzwarth · 10m ago
Nothing odd about that. I'm thinking of photos of Obama and Hillary in the situation room, observing the strikes on Bin Laden in realtime.
fastball · 1h ago
What is surreal about Trump being in the Situation Room?
neilv · 1h ago
As photojournalism, the image is brilliant. Though not entirely candid, that subtext contributes.
TheAlchemist · 1h ago
And now what ?

If the current regime stays in power, it's pretty much a guarantee that they will pursue nuclear weapons by all means available, in the future.

If the US / Israel want to topple the regime... that worked really well in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afganistan....

Also, isn't it really illegal for a US president to authorize a strike like this without Congress ?

PeterHolzwarth · 31m ago
No, it is not illegal for a US president to authorize strikes like this. American hasn't formally declared war since WWII.

Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons for decades - and no one, especially no one in the middle east - wants a nuclear armed Iran. America and its partners - and quite often its not-partners - have been working to stop Iranian uranium enrichment for a very long time.

As for "guarantees they will pursue nuclear weapons by all means" -- that's the point: they've already been doing so nonstop for decades.

In much of the middle east, Iran is detested, and a nuclear armed Iran is deeply feared throughout the region. Iran with nukes means the rest of the middle east will feel compelled to pursue nuclear weapons as well. Again, in vast swaths of the middle east, Iran is considered an enemy.

fiatpandas · 1h ago
President can authorize precision strikes and special ops if there’s imminent threat justification. I’m not arguing either way if this strike was justified, but there’s legal pathways for it. The congress rule is about declaring war.
ergocoder · 1h ago
> the US / Israel want to topple the regime... that worked really well in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afganistan....

Then, they wouldn't be organized enough to build a nuclear weapon. That would be a better outcome.

seanmcdirmid · 56m ago
A chaotic broken Iran is going to be a powder keg for the world that keeps erupting unless the US is willing to just glass the entire country. It only looks like a better outcome in the very short term.
ActorNightly · 1h ago
Why are people surprised when Trump does things illegally?
PeterHolzwarth · 11m ago
In the American body of law and legislation, strikes such as these aren't illegal. Honestly, we've been doing stuff like this for decades.
righthand · 15m ago
Because acting unsurprised means giving Trump a pass. It means normalizing awful things and normalizing hate and hurt. No one actually wants the world where he has no moral limits.
fastball · 1h ago
Did it surprise you when Obama did the same?
doofusmcgoo · 42m ago
Nope. Because he didn't do anything illegal.

Thanks for calling, goodnight.

jasonboyd · 20m ago
Are you sure? He certainly engaged in a lot of military operations in several countries without Congress's approval. He also ramped up drone strikes dramatically.
IAmGraydon · 53m ago
This information is just a google search away, so I’ll assume you’re willfully ignorant. No it’s not illegal. It can go on for 60 days before requiring authorization by Congress.
batmaniam · 1h ago
How the heck does a US president have military powers so powerful and broad? If congress can only declare war, it doesn't make sense to me that the president can put the entire country at risk of war by directly bombing another country. Like then at that point, congress has to approve right..? Because the damage is already done. It's a big slap on the face at the global stage, with no room for political face-saving. The damage being already done to both global reputation and national sovereignty. There's no going back.

If another country bombed the US, and then their system of government was like, "oh well it isn't technically war cause it was just our single head honcho making his own decision. But good news, our second government entity officially declared not going to war with you, kthxbye srry lol", that logic isn't going to fly in the US. The US is gonna retaliate and consider it an act of war, because it was bombed by a foreign power... damage being already done.

How the heck can Trump do this. I get it if the US got attacked, then it's useless to wait for congress to decide war-or-not-war... but this literally puts the US on a direct war path with Iran. the US literally just bombed another country unprovoked.

And Trump said he hated war, which was his platform when running. He was gonna end the war in Ukraine because nobody wins and war is nasty. What is going on.. why is Congress so spineless too. They probably won't even do anything. This is the worst timeline ever.

BLKNSLVR · 44m ago
Israel declared war on Iran, and now the US has joined Israel's side in it.

There is no other interpretation when bombs and missiles are sent 'in anger' to a sovereign nation, no matter which side is "bad".

Hint: all sides are bad.

PeterHolzwarth · 9m ago
In America, there's nothing unusual here: President can, and very frequently have, decided to do military strikes on targets. This is not illegal in american law.
wsatb · 46m ago
> And Trump said he hated war, which was his platform when running. What’s going on..

He’s a career con artist, that’s what’s going on.

selivanovp · 51m ago
They're all paid with Israelis money. And if you look closer to what Biden family was doing in Ukraine for the last couple of decades, you won't be surprized why money and weapons were sent there.
dkjaudyeqooe · 4h ago
There are reasons why presidents have avoided attacking Iran.

- massive instability in the ME. Just a few men with shoulder fired missiles can disrupt oil shipments from the biggest oil producers

- the high chance of being sucked into a forever war. Iran can cause a lot of problems with limited resources and can rebuild. They have no reason to give up and the US might have to continue bombing indefinitely, or launch a ground invasion.

- the increased chance of nuclear war in the ME. This action assumes that Iran has no backup facilities, or will never have, to continue building a bomb. Having already suffered the consequences, Iran has no reason not to seek a bomb.

austin-cheney · 3h ago
Worse, is that this was done at the behest of Israel. Israel is America’s shittiest ally in the region where the relationship is exclusively one-sided. There are good reasons why, despite all the lies and bullshit from America politicians, America has not executed military actions at their behest before now.
jordanb · 3h ago
“Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East.” — John Sheehan, S.J.
woah · 1h ago
Before Israel, the middle east was controlled by Great Britain
coffeemug · 2h ago
Thomas Jefferson sent the U.S. navy to fight the Barbary war (in modern Libya) because he refused to pay tribute to protect our trading routes. This quote is simply false. We've had enemies in the Middle East pretty much since the founding of the American republic.
margalabargala · 1h ago
Where do you think Libya is?

Libya is nowhere near the Middle East. It's not even the Near East. It's in northern Africa.

jordanb · 1h ago
1) Libya is not in the middle east.

2) This was before our war with Canada and just after our Quasi-war with France.

nullhole · 2h ago
> “Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East.” — John Sheehan, S.J.

Before Israel? Like before 1947? When half the place was under British rule and the oil industry was a fraction of what it was today?

That's about as useful as saying that before the atomic bomb, we had no enemies in the Middle East.

What a dishonest way to make such an inflammatory accusation.

CapricornNoble · 1h ago
Yes, before 1947, back when the Secretary of State as well as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all seasoned professionals who had just won WW2, strongly advised AGAINST supporting Zionism in Palestine. They correctly asserted that demands from the Zionists would never end, and that it would sour the US's otherwise solid relations with the entire Arab region.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1946v07/d5...

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1946v07/d4...

vFunct · 2h ago
Yes. Before Israel, when America had no enemies in the mideast. Thanks for confirming.
fastball · 1h ago
Who did have enemies in the ME? It was (as stated) mostly a vassal state.
cloverich · 1h ago
Oil rose to prominence during this same period; Israel is a major factor but is certainly not the only or even most important issue.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
It wasn’t, the political pressure from Iran’s neighbors was higher, and it didn’t help that the EU was pissed at Iran for helping kill Ukraine.
Beefin · 22m ago
you have no idea what you're talking about - every single country that experiences domestic terrorism relies on israeli intelligence for counter terrorism. almost all of europe, us, much of the middle east all have very active intelligence partnerships.

if you think it's one-sided you're either severely misinformed or bigoted.

dkjaudyeqooe · 3h ago
This is probably the worst thing about Trump, he's let Bibi lead him around like a dog on a leash.

Any other president would be infuriated with Bibi's actions, because they would know he's cornering the US. But he knew Trump was a pushover.

I-M-S · 3h ago
I guess any other president doesn't include Trump's direct predecessor, under whose watch Gaza was allowed to happen.
0dayz · 1h ago
Allow Gaza to happen? You mean Biden approved of Oct 7?
Ar-Curunir · 2h ago
Did we live through the same Biden presidency?
tdeck · 1h ago
A lot of folks were at brunch.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Weekend at Biden’s was just ice cream.
bushbaba · 3h ago
Actually now is different. The axis of resistance that would pop up (asad, Hezbollah, Hamas, houthis) are all basically gone and unable to mount an attack.

Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, HTS, and majority of Middle East is not in favor of Iran getting a nuke.

Hatred of Iran, is a unifying force.

PeterHolzwarth · 2h ago
Well put, and an important - and often either overlooked or fully unknown - point, especially in the west.

Many in the west see the middle east as a broadly similar unit, not realizing that there Iran represents a frequently highly-disliked section in the broader area. The neutralization of Iraq definitely has had an impact on that front as well (the two being hard core enemies for a long time).

siltcakes · 2h ago
The children of all the people killed by Israel will continue to resist. The US/Israel has created 100x new enemies in the past year and a half (not counting the billions outside of the ME).
PeterHolzwarth · 8m ago
Not really. In much of the middle east, Iran is detested and considered an immediate enemy.
fastball · 1h ago
I thought the claim was that Israel was mostly killing the children?
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Iran killed too many Ukrainians.
jimbob45 · 1h ago
It’s less than 1000 Iranians dead as of now and I doubt we hit 1000 by the end of things. Palestinians are such horrible refugees that none of the neighboring Muslim countries want to take them in, not to mention their staggeringly high rates of incest wrecking any potential host’s gene pool.

There aren’t as many new enemies as you think.

hiddencost · 3h ago
I guess that's better than "axis of evil".

Looking forward to the strait of Hormuz shutting down...

scruple · 2h ago
Sounds like a good way to make China and Russia angry...
cloverich · 2h ago
Serious question re Russia: Can they actually get more engaged than they already are...? Because id thought the opposite; Russia is weaker than anyone since initial soviet breakup, isn't now the ideal time wrt to Israeli involvement?
energy123 · 2h ago
> the increased chance of nuclear war in the ME.

I disagree, given the high probability they were going to do it anyway. They built Natanz enrichment in secret, they built Arak in secret, they built Fordow in secret, not to mention the more recent violations of the NPT to which they're still a signatory. They've violated the NPT over and over and over again. Why would one more agreement make any difference to their clandestine program?

This is the thing Western liberals need to understand. The leaders of these despotic regimes don't think like you. They don't intend to adhere to the agreements like you would. Their psychology is different to your psychology. And you can't make a unilateral agreement with a party like this. The agreement becomes a weapon to creep forward and present the world with a fait accompli at a future date.

mrkeen · 2h ago
> This is the thing Western liberals need to understand.

First Western liberals needed to understand that Ukraine shouldn't have given up its nukes. Now they need to understand that Iran shouldn't have tried to get them.

energy123 · 1h ago
The Ukraine situation proves my point, though. Russia was a signatory to an agreement with Ukraine to not do what they're doing. You can't make unilateral agreements with parties that have no intention of holding to them, as much as you would like to wishcast a different reality. The only option is a military one.
bigyabai · 1h ago
> The only option is a military one.

Oh, I've seen this one before! Then you install a police state, back it up with foreign weapons you sell to the police state in exchange for taxpayer money, forcibly "disappear" any disagreeable types and make the entire population hate your country for centuries to come!

https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/legal-and-political-mag...

  All observers to trials since 1965 have reported allegations of torture which have been made by defendants and have expressed their own conviction that prisoners are tortured for the purpose of obtaining confessions. Alleged methods of torture include whipping and beating, electric shocks, the extraction of nails and teeth, boiling water pumped into the rectum, heavy weights hung on the testicles, tying the prisoner to a metal table heated to white heat, inserting a broken bottle into the anus, and rape.
Did "western liberals" get all that? Oh, I forgot this line by mistake!

  SAVAK was established in 1967 with help from both the CIA and the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad.
energy123 · 1h ago
The false equivalency of destroying a democracy that had no nuclear ambitions, with attacking the nuclear facilities of a theocratic regime that has violated the NPT multiple times.
monkaiju · 1h ago
Blows my mind how people think Iran is building nuclear weapons when nobody in the intel community does... Thought y'all wouldve learned after Iraq but guess not...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/17/trump-iran-i...

Izikiel43 · 3h ago
For your first point, that’s not as big of an issue as it used to for the USA thanks to fracking, now the USA is a net exporter of oil.

For the second, I don’t think anything other than an air campaign like it’s been done will happen, it’s not like the USA is out for blood like after 9/11.

For the third, yeah, that’s unfortunately possible, North Korea, Ukraine and now this show that the only way no one messes with you is by having a good enough deterrent. However, even if this hadn’t happened, if Iran got a bomb, they wouldn’t threaten like nk does to get stuff, it would just test it on Israel, so you would get nuclear war anyway.

ndgold · 1h ago
Is it true that all war = illegal ?
yibg · 1h ago
Perhaps, but even if that's true it doesn't mean both sides committed an illegal act. Defending against and responding to attacks is not illegal.
cedws · 3h ago
So is that the end of Iran’s nuclear programme, or is there more to it?
giantg2 · 3h ago
They're committed. They'll rebuild. Just as Stuxnet just delayed things.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Paper are committed to stop them it seems as well.
hotmeals · 1h ago
Terminator Skynet rules, they just delayed it.
swagasaurus-rex · 3h ago
This is just another square in my world war three bingo board. Sits pretty close to breaking the nuclear taboo square.
PeterHolzwarth · 2h ago
A country doesn't acquire nukes to use them. They acquire them to freeze specific layers of conflict. Actually using them among peers invites annihilation.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Statistics says even if it’s true, unintended use probability sky rockets risking nuclear winter.
PeterHolzwarth · 55m ago
It turns out (and I didn't realize this until I looked back into it just a few years ago) that the 70s/80s concept of nuclear winter is discredited and believed not to be something that would arise from a global thermonuclear holocaust.
swagasaurus-rex · 2h ago
Annihilation, that would make a good square on the bingo board
hiddencost · 3h ago
https://popular.info/p/what-will-happen-if-the-united-states

This is the end of any hope. Iran will now do everything in its power to get one. And it has all the skills it needs.

Refinement keeps getting easier.

PeterHolzwarth · 4m ago
They've been doing anything in their power to get nuclear weapons for decades! This isn't some new trend that just occurred to them last week.
duxup · 3h ago
Is there an end to this?

The US actually ends Iran's nuclear program, they quit trying and obey ... because we bombed them?

Most of the recent middle east history doesn't seem to ever end as much as just go through a continuous cycle of violence creating more of what the folks condoning violence claim they're preventing.

twelve40 · 3h ago
fwiw they do seem to have wiped out a bunch of opponents recently, some weakened to the point of giving up, others wiped out entirely. ever since the so-called "arab spring" the trend has been pretty steady.
siltcakes · 2h ago
What do you think all of the children of parents murdered by Israel will do? There will be much stronger resistance in the future.
twelve40 · 15m ago
I wonder that too, with Gaza the only endgame seems to be to either just kill everyone or displace every single person somewhere else, but if those children continue to have living conditions of animals, their resistance will be of no consequence. Sorry if it sounds harsh, but i think this is not inaccurate unfortunately.
cryptozeus · 3h ago
Iraq completely shut down post war so yeh its possible
baobun · 2h ago
It's a completely different story. The roots and branches of Iran and its current leadership go deeper and wider on a different level. Saddam had nothing in comparison. Hamas would be a cakewalk in comparison and that's apparently still going.

Hard to see this being achievable over a just a couple of years if at all.

jjk166 · 2h ago
We fought a war against Iraq, conducted no fly zone operations over them for 12 years, fought another war, occupied them for 9 years, left and came back less than 3 years later for another 7 year long military operation against the terrorist group that filled the power vacuum. We still have about 2500 troops stationed in Iraq.
FuckButtons · 52m ago
We still have 55k in Japan and 24k in Korea, what exactly is your point? 2500 troops for a military the size of the US is a rounding error.
jjk166 · 42m ago
Thank you for the additional examples of things not simply shutting down after a quick conflict. Lasting peace requires decades of military involvement. That is my point.
enlightenedfool · 1h ago
All that is supported by the American public buying defense stocks. Just new war strategies when party in power changes.
vFunct · 2h ago
Iraq wasn't a populist movement. Iran is.
jordanb · 3h ago
Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. That was the assessment of Trump's own government back in March, according to testimony of his national security advisor under oath before congress.

We knew about these sites because they have been under IAEA supervision for many years.

The smart thing for Iran to do at this point is do what Israel did: not submit to any arms control and develop their own weapons in secret. Clearly this is the only way to be safe when people in Tel Aviv and Washington are openly discussing the "Libya solution."

dralley · 2h ago
This is grammar-hacking and misleading.

According to the IAEA, Iran has around 400kg of 60% enriched Uranium. Nobody disputes this. There is zero reason to ever enrich beyond around 5% for civilian purposes, and zero reason to ever enrich beyond around 20% for non-bomb purposes (naval ship reactors typically use higher enrichment to avoid refueling and increase power density). That's enough Uranium to build around 10 bombs if fully enriched. They've done work on designing the actual bomb itself, too, and there's very little dispute about that either.

They have a nuclear weapons program. What Iran hasn't done, or there's no evidence of them having done, is actually start putting one together. But many of the prerequisites to do so are in place, though people dispute exactly how long it would take them to pull it off once they decided to do so.

throwworhtthrow · 1h ago
Gaining the knowledge to build a nuclear weapon is not the same thing as assembling one.

Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, March 2025:

"the IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program." [1]

Please explain how "Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program" is grammar hacking the above quote.

[1] https://youtu.be/nOhOqjx1y18?t=701

dralley · 1h ago
If you're actively doing the research and design required to build a nuclear weapon, and you're enriching uranium for the purpose of building a nuclear weapon, you have a nuclear weapons program. Whether you're actually physically assembling one immediately or not.

You wouldn't argue that the Manhattan Project wasn't a "real" nuclear weapons program until they started physically building the prototype.

csomar · 1h ago
I think his point is: you knew about this 60% because we have visibility into their plants. But if we didn't, we probably have less of an idea of what is going on there.
noufalibrahim · 18m ago
Indeed.

I remember an old interview of Robert Fisk where in which his analysis was that the only way to stay safe from attacks like this was to have a nuclear weapon.

I can't think of any other way. Their rhetoric is needlessly belligerent but it doesn't seem like there's anything they can do to guarantee their own safety.

reaperducer · 3h ago
Just yesterday I was wondering when the last time was that the Middle East had a period of peace. I know it hasn't been in my lifetime.
greenavocado · 3h ago
It was getting pretty quiet leading up to the moment Assad was deposed.
jjk166 · 2h ago
Assad was deposed more than a year after the start of the current Israel/Gaza flare up, which has included conflict in Lebanon and Yemen. He was also deposed nearly 14 years into the Syrian Civil War.
jordanb · 3h ago
Not since the Ottomans picked the wrong side in WWI.
vdupras · 3h ago
One question I have on my mind is: what side will they pick in WWIII?
greenavocado · 3h ago
Considering the fact that many US congressmen openly fly the flag of Israel in and around their congressional offices and openly proclaim absolute commitment to this foreign entity, there is no end in sight to the direct interference in US politics and subsequent military intervention and aid supporting these people while our country is sucked dry and our soldiers are ordered to die fighting in their wars.

No comments yet

denkmoon · 4h ago
The irony being that Iran must get nukes now. It is readily apparent they cannot defend themselves conventionally. Nukes are the ultimate deterrence. This wouldn’t be happening if they had a credible, survivable nuclear deterrence. QED this forces Iran to acquire nukes.
PeterHolzwarth · 2m ago
I'm not sure what you mean - Iran has been full-tilt pursuing nuclear weapons for decades. And America, its partners, and even its definitely-not-partners, have been working to counter that the whole time.

Remember that in much of the middle east, Iran is considered an enemy.

paxys · 4h ago
Ukraine and Iran have showed that if a country doesn't have nukes they don't have sovereignty.
lesuorac · 3h ago
I think Pakistan is the example you're looking for.

US spend a decade fighting in Afghanistan and 0 years in Pakistan despite UBL being in Pakistan.

ExaltedPunt · 3h ago
Osama Bin Laden could have turned up outside the White house to hand himself in and they still would have gone into Afghanistan and Iraq.

9/11 was used as an excuse to for these regime change wars. There are old videos where they were talking about doing this in the 2000s.

csomar · 1h ago
North Korea is another example.
ericmay · 4h ago
Well, it’s not really that simple. Plenty of countries are still sovereign without nuclear weapons.

And even nuclear armed nations aren’t exactly able to use their weapons to devastate an opponents military - see Ukraine and Russia.

dkjaudyeqooe · 3h ago
Thats because they have friends with nukes (or thought they did).
paxys · 4h ago
Which country? Do you think Canada is sovereign? Do you think it will be able to defend itself if Trump gives the military an order to make them the 51st state by any means necessary?
ericmay · 4h ago
Well, Afghanistan defended itself for a bit. As did Vietnam, as clear examples. Neither possess nuclear weapons.

Today countries as various as Brazil and Australia are independent, sovereign nations. Even Ukraine which was invaded by nuclear-armed Russia is still sovereign and fighting. Iran for that matter still has its sovereignty, they just lost some military assets.

nemothekid · 4h ago
Canada is sovereign because of its proximity and interconnection with US. If your economy is large enough, you can "nuke" your opponents by using mutually assured poverty.

But I largely agree, if you aren't a giant economy and you don't have nukes - then if the US or Russia accesses you of building nukes, you need to start building nukes ASAP.

jordanb · 3h ago
> Do you think Canada is sovereign

Well the prime minister who was elected promising not to bend the knee to Trump has bent the knee to trump.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/06/20/Carney-Elbows-Down/

twothreeone · 2h ago
I was looking forward to an interesting argument, sadly it's just a very badly written opinion piece.
ericmay · 3h ago
Ok and so now Canada isn’t a sovereign country? That would be astonishing news to Canadians everywhere! Can someone tell them??!
ekianjo · 3h ago
Taiwan has no nukes, and still has not been invaded by China.
amanaplanacanal · 2h ago
Taiwan has a good friend with nukes though.
ekianjo · 1h ago
Most countries have good friends with nukes. Iran included.
pixelpoet · 2h ago
I don't expect this to stay true for very long :(
have-a-break · 4h ago
Next would be manufacturing your own smartphones. Sad that not making weapons and enslaving your own populace makes you subject to external countries.
busterarm · 3h ago
That is until some country proves that developing nukes means you no longer have a country.

It looks like it might even be Iran.

mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Russia was the first nuclear armed state to lose territory to a retired comedian.
arandomusername · 4h ago
Iran will definitely continue pursuing uranium enrichment. IRIB claims that the enriched uranium stockpile was moved away from those locations - which makes sense, so they probably didn't lose their stockpile. They will build new enrichment sites, which means bombing again.
tmnvix · 4h ago
I think it's too early to say that the Fordow facility has definitely been destroyed. So far I've only heard Trump make the claim and I'm not inclined to take his word for it.
arandomusername · 4h ago
True, Trump's words are worthless. I'm hearing that the Iranian state media is claiming no irreversible damage at Fordow / only entry points were targeted - but ofcourse that doesn't carry much weight either.
tmnvix · 3h ago
FWIW one take on all of this that I have considered is that Israel and the US have been looking for an out that allows them to claim to have successfully achieved their objectives. I wouldn't be surprised if this attack was unsuccessful but won't be followed up if that becomes apparent later.

Israel only just (before this US bombing) claimed they had set Iran's nuclear program back by 2-3 years. I found the timing of the announcement curious.

This after suffering extensive damage from direct missile strikes (Haifa port/refinery, Mossad headquarters, Wiezmann institute, C4I/cyber defense, etc). I think the missile strikes have been much more damaging than expected and understandably under-reported. Weapons expert Ted Postol of MIT claims Israel's missile defense is only intercepting around 5%.

I think Israel will be very unhappy if things continue to escalate without further US involvement. Depending on how Iran retaliates against the US, further involvement might not be forthcoming. We've seen seen Iran attack a US base in Jordan without causing escalation from the US. Could expect something similar.

cbsks · 3h ago
> Weapons expert Ted Postol of MIT claims Israel's missile defense is only intercepting around 5%

Do you have a link to this? I’m curious to read more.

tmnvix · 2h ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONvjyKAr3-Y

From about 2:50

Also talks about the likely success of the 'bunker busters' at Fodrow.

tguvot · 3h ago
refinary will be back operational this week

mossad hq - miss. hit sewage instead https://imgur.com/a/L3PUqCi

weizman - bombed wing that contains cancer and rare deceases research labs. amazing

C4I/cyber defense. missed. hit soroka hospital.

deepsquirrelnet · 4h ago
The other irony being it starting out with claiming a country has WMDs on questionable evidence.

I hope the US can use hindsight right now to guide the next decisions.

azurezyq · 2h ago
Then it might be better that the country really has WMD.

Otherwise uncle Sam will let you know you have them

NekkoDroid · 34m ago
As controversial of a figure he is, the Hasanabi Doctrine at play.
Glyptodon · 4h ago
I've wondered how much of a deterrent dirty bombs are or aren't outside of nukes and curious if they might be in the cards for retaliatory moves by Iran.
klipt · 3h ago
My understanding is those don't accomplish much militarily since they just give people cancer 30 years later. So you commit a war crime for no military advantage, then what? The other country just hits back with a dirty bomb of their own?
kurtis_reed · 3h ago
Israel would say if Iran just stops attacking and threatening Israel then they wouldn't need to defend themselves.
smashah · 4h ago
Precisely, Trump could only do this terrorist attack because he knows for certain that Iran does not have nukes. Nukes are an abomination to the Islamic Rules of War - which is why there is/was a long standing fatwa against it.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Bombing a mountain spinning uranium around to find the right isotopes to make death spheres is an act of terrorism against uranium spinning around.
selimthegrim · 4h ago
I guess this fatwa doesn’t apply to Pak Army?
heavyset_go · 1h ago
Why would Sunni leaders adhere to another sect's fatwas?
abletonlive · 4h ago
You don't seem to understand that the government of Iran isn't going to exist in about 2 weeks. This was their only leverage in negotiation. Trump is about to make a speech in 30 minutes. It's over for them. The US does not just send B2 bombers without knowing it's going to work. Israeli intelligence and bombing for the past week was setting up for this final act.
siltcakes · 4h ago
They can continue to bomb Israel at will. These minimal attacks will not stop that and there will be no regime change.
abletonlive · 4h ago
lol remind me in 2 weeks

No comments yet

runako · 4h ago
> The US does not just send B2 bombers without knowing it's going to work.

I'm old enough to remember when we (the US) ran this exact playbook, except the last letter was 'q' instead of 'n'.

Spoiler: the B-2 played a part in both of the big wars we lost in the last couple of decades. The problem hinges on the definition of "work": yes, the bombs hit what they are aimed at. No, that does not result in operational success without a coherent theory of victory.

abletonlive · 3h ago
I'm old enough to remember that Iraq had its entire government toppled in about 3 weeks after the US invasion so this is not the example you think it is lol. You conveniently redefined what we are talking about. You must not remember saddam getting dragged through the streets.
runako · 3h ago
I do remember all of that.

What happened next? Did it go to plan? Nearly to plan? Close enough to plan that one could kind of squint and give partial credit? Worse than that?

Did the US lose more lives in Iraq (and kill more Iraqis) before or after "Mission Accomplished"?

abletonlive · 3h ago
you don't have to squint to see reality.

saddam is gone and there was a regime change.

that's it. that's what we were talking about.

no need to go into other areas of the conversation that didn't exist before you came along to insert some reason why you feel justified defending a regime that oppresses women through a "morality police" force. i don't care why you think they should be allowed to have nukes. i'm sure you can argue for it all day. you don't need to get philosophical about what is "winning" or "working".

if you can't agree on objective reality and what we are discussing, we have nothing to discuss. move on

runako · 3h ago
Yes, the regime changed. Objectively, that is true. We agree on that. And then...

the US lost nearly 5,000 service members in Iraq. We are still paying for the $3 trillion the war cost. Americans derived no benefit whatsoever from the change of regime in Iraq, a country that had not attacked us.

As an American who lives in a US city not currently under attack by Iran, it is reasonable to ask why we should sign up for this again. This has absolutely zero with defending Iran. How they manage their domestic affairs has no bearing on me.

If there is a case to be made that we should curtail our urgent domestic policy goals in favor of another war thousands of miles from the US, it has not been made.

My concern is this: I have no dog in this fight, but now I am going to be asked to pay for it. And it working like it "worked" in Iraq is my primary concern on that front.

Isolating the first 3 weeks or so from an 8-year war to say that it "worked" is obviously a special kind of sophistry. I'm not sure what purpose is served by such an analysis, honestly.

mensetmanusman · 1h ago
Don’t forget the $20T in entitlement spending/debt that the boomers paid themselves. War is small beans!
jjk166 · 1h ago
And I'm old enough to remember the previous war with Iraq which left Iraq's government intact, and the 12 years of no fly zone operations before attempt 2. I also remember attempt 2 costing around $3 Trillion.
fatbird · 3h ago
I remember that being caused by a massive US ground invasion, not by sustained bombing. Has the US spent the last six months building up ground forces on Iran's borders?
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
It only works if you think victory was hitting the target.
catlifeonmars · 3h ago
What makes you think a ground invasion is likely?
Waterluvian · 4h ago
When I look at Russia invading Ukraine, and I see how Israel is behaving, and I listen to the American president talking about annexing my country, I can see why a country might believe it needs nuclear weapons.

Whether this is good or bad is something people can discuss. But I think it’s fleetingly difficult for me to see any sort of righteous high ground these days.

bagels · 4h ago
With Trump in office, everybody should be seeking them out, Canada included.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
If they don’t understand math and risk, they should. The US nearly nuked itself multiple times during development and learning. It will happen when everyone else races to build them.
Waterluvian · 1h ago
Yes, I hear nukes are dangerous.
Waterluvian · 3h ago
I'm not sure what wise national defense policy would be. But I can't argue with anyone who might reach that conclusion.
ivape · 4h ago
I mean if Russia can just walk into Ukraine, why can't Israel terrorize Iran from the sky. Why can't China just waltz into Taiwan?

The thing about Trump's isolationism is that it's actually a passive aggressive position. Imagine you know which kids in your classroom are likely to fight and you take a policy of "I won't stop it if it happens", that's basically telling some of the kids "go ahead", so how is this isolationist?

Now, literally joining in on the fight when the kids pop off, that is uniquely Trumpian.

komali2 · 3h ago
In the case of Taiwan, because there's not really a path to victory from straight up invasion that accomplishes anything really meaningful, unless Xi is down for his legacy to be 5 million deaths and the sudden burden of tens of millions of infrastructureless refugees that are apparently full throated PRC citizens now.

The PRC's only realistic hope is a soft power takeover which it seems mildly competent at progressing on. About to have a serious setback with the KMT recalls though.

nebula8804 · 2h ago
I can only see China invading after SMIC has matched the capabilities of TSMC. China wouldn't need TSMC anymore and if the rest of the world' tech sectors collapse then sucks for them but not China.
dj_gitmo · 5h ago
It’s horrible that the president can start a war without even asking congress.
nicomeemes · 4h ago
"Accountability is the essence of democracy. If people do not know what their government is doing, they cannot be truly self-governing. The national security state assumes the government secrets are too important to be shared, that only those in the know can see classified information, that only the president has all the facts, that we must simply trust that our rulers of acting in our interest." ~ Garry Wills

Never heard of Wills? Whet your appetite with his masterpiece and best work (in my humble opinion): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29435.Nixon_Agonistes

bagels · 4h ago
Horrible, and illegal, but Congress has repeatedly refused to do their constitutional duty.
PeterHolzwarth · 1m ago
These strikes are not illegal in the American body of legislation and law. We've been doing things like this for many decades.
cvoss · 3h ago
It's, unfortunately, not illegal unless the military action continues for more than 60 days without Congressional approval. This is due to the War Powers Resolution of 1973.
FuckButtons · 44m ago
The strong do as they will while the weak suffer what they must.

I’m glad that trump has returned us to a world where quotes from the 5th century bc seem like commentary on current affairs, since it means that all my time learning about power dynamics in political systems during antiquity is now completely relevant to dealing with current events, rather than a giant waste of time.

sssilver · 5h ago
My impression was that this wasn’t how the US worked?
sjsdaiuasgdia · 5h ago
The last formal declaration of war by the US was during World War 2.

We got very good at gray area nonsense. The Korean War is not a war, it's a conflict. The Vietnam War is not a war, it's an engagement. We have police actions, "peacekeeping" operations, and a hundred other things...but not "wars".

We have the "global war on terror" and the accompanying Authorization for the Use of Military Force, created in the wake of 9/11 and still in effect today.

Congressional approval of military action is fundamentally dead.

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PopePompus · 5h ago
Congress has been happily shedding its powers for decades. They don't want to be held responsible if a war turns out badly, so they haven't declared a war since 1945, I believe.
_kst_ · 4h ago
The last US declaration of war was in 1942, against Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania (allies of Nazi Germany).
mulmen · 3h ago
WWII ended in 1945. The last time the US officially declared war was June 4, 1942. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_Unit...
epgui · 5h ago
You’re right; it’s how the US malfunctions.
handfuloflight · 5h ago
Congress does not have a spine.
colechristensen · 5h ago
It wasn't supposed to be how it worked but our legislature is basically dysfunctional and either vaguely gave away or just won't protect its own power.
gxs · 5h ago
This administration has been great at finding bugs in the code where the devs refuse to do shit

That said this particular bug for starting wars without congress has been exploited for decades with no patches in site

disqard · 2h ago
...and don't forget Gödel's Loophole (from Wikipedia):

> Gödel's Loophole is a supposed "inner contradiction" in the Constitution of the United States which Austrian-American logician, mathematician, and analytic philosopher Kurt Gödel postulated in 1947. The loophole would permit America's republican structure to be legally turned into a dictatorship.

Freedom2 · 5h ago
Generally no, but if you gaslight yourself into thinking you're the greatest democracy in the world with no equal and you need no patches or bugfixes, you can achieve a lot without any real checks or balances.
ekianjo · 3h ago
It's been like that for more than 20 years.
readthenotes1 · 5h ago
That requirement has been honored rarely or skimpingly at best.
dmschulman · 3h ago
name one instance where congress wasn't involved in decisions around war powers.
ekianjo · 3h ago
when were they involved in the past 30 years?
dmschulman · 3h ago
not once, but twice with iraq in 1990 and 2003 (just to name one). but you still haven't fielded my question.
awongh · 5h ago
This hasn't been a rule since WWII?
sealeck · 4h ago
I'm not even American and I know that this act was passed after the Vietnam War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution
kelnos · 4h ago
> The War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.

So it seems he's allowed to do this? It's still within 48 hours, so he has time to officially "notify" Congress, if he hasn't done so already. And since this was an aerial bombing, no armed forces remain there, so the 60-day bit is irrelevant.

stevenwoo · 3h ago
He notified the opposition leadership prior to the announcement on his social media website so he actually complied with that part.
archsurface · 5h ago
He didn't. The war was already started, he lent brief assistance.
SkyeCA · 5h ago
As is tradition: Israel says jump, the US responds "How high?"
sjsdaiuasgdia · 5h ago
Suppose we should congratulate Bibi on his ascendancy to the US presidency.
chairmansteve · 4h ago
Elon is out, Bibi is in.
cyanydeez · 5h ago
If it were legal, Russia probably would surpass Israel in political influence...legally.
foogazi · 4h ago
Russia’s main drone supplier is about to be knocked offline
sealeck · 4h ago
They've got a bunch of other facilities dotted around the place: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/16/ukraine-war-br...
e40 · 4h ago
According to a Ukrainian friend Russia is now producing them themselves. They got the design plans from Iran.
CapricornNoble · 2h ago
Russia's drones are primarily domestic production, not imported. The original Shaheds and their design were imported, but now the Russians are on the Geran-3 version and are cranking them out at the cyclic rate.

Ukrainian sources still insist on calling them "Shaheds": https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/4/7515633/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/29/russia-iran-...

benreesman · 4h ago
Not the situation as it stands. If it ends here its a disaster for Netanyahu.

As concerns global stability a single precision strike from an untouchable platform with zero marginal increase in obligations on strained naval assets is basically the best case scenario. If we had dropped a bomb, took a picture in front of a "Mission Accomplished" banner, and gone back to playing chess with peer adversaries in any conflict since the Korean War it would have been the smart move. The United States military is designed to protect global trade and win high intensity conflicts against peer adversaries and be seen preparing for it as a deterrant. It does this job extremely well. It was not designed for assymetrical quagmires with no possible palatable exit strategy.

Likud may be willing to fight Iran to the last American, but I'd rather we didn't.

paxys · 3h ago
Israel is "too big to fail" at this point. Netanyahu knows he can provoke every country in the world and if he ever meets real resistance the US government and military will take over. There's literally no way this cannot end well for him.
benreesman · 1h ago
Maybe, but I think that in the cold calculus of geo-realpolitik, TSMC is more important than Israel in a world where WTI is unlikely to ever trade above 150 and will never break 200 [1]. APAC is influential, but not in the same way it was when the entire economy was weeks from collapse without Israel dominating the region.

And the Trump Administration understands that we can't defend them both at a cost the public will accept. I think. Even MAGA diehards are like 70% opposed to another quagmire in the Middle East even if Trump endorses like a downticket primary radical.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm

bgwalter · 3h ago
That may be the perception from the outside due to theater (Trump holding Netanyahu's chair for the cameras etc.), but these plans have existed forever. Here is a plan from the Brookings Institute from 2009:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt6wpgvg

"CHAPTER FIVE Leave it to Bibi: Allowing or Encouraging an Israeli Military Strike"

flyinglizard · 5h ago
There are many people around the world who are relived with Iran denied nuclear weapons, not just Israel. There are many countries in the Middle East, some openly hostile to Israel, who are very happy that Iran will not get immunity like North Korea.

Israel did most of the dirty work, US just came in to drive the final nail.

hearsathought · 2h ago
> There are many people around the world who are relived with Iran denied nuclear weapons, not just Israel.

Even more people would be relieved if trump bombed israel's nuclear facilities. But that doesn't make it right or justified.

Do you really want military attacks based on popularity or feelings? I don't think israel would enjoy living in such a world.

jeremyjh · 4h ago
I would trust the Ayatollah with nukes much further than I would trust Stephen Miller.
mhb · 4h ago
Trust him to what? Do what he says he would do with them?
samaltmanfried · 3h ago
> Do what he says he would do with them?

Like what? Declare a fatwa against them?

When you answer, please provide sources for your claims. I'll be eagerly awaiting your response.

diogocp · 1h ago
Ali Khamenei: "The situation between America and Iran is this: When you chant 'Death to America!' it is not just a slogan – it is a policy.

https://www.memri.org/tv/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-k...

kelnos · 4h ago
My trust with either of them having nukes is so low it's not worth comparing.
sealeck · 4h ago
A truly sad indictment of the state of US government...
know-how · 5h ago
Yea, why don't we let the most destabilizing state sponsor of terrorism obtain a nuke? Surely that's only in Israel's interest...

You know, none of this would have happened if Hamas didn't attack Israel on Oct 7. Iran should know. They paid for it.

If Iran had a nuke, they are crazy enough to use it by slipping it to their cells.

"If someone says they are going to kill you, believe them."

Iran: Death to Israel Iran: Death to America Hamas: Death to Israel Hamas: Death to America

So, hugs and pallets of cash? ...or you destroy their ability to kill a million of your civilians.

If their enrichment wasn't for weapons-development, why was it being done in a hardened under-ground bunker?

In 2023, unannounced inspections uncovered uranium particles enriched near weapons-grade. The so-called agreement was toilet paper to the terrorist state.

sealeck · 4h ago
> Yea, why don't we let the most destabilizing state sponsor of terrorism obtain a nuke? Surely that's only in Israel's interest...

Well, the Democrats had a very good plan to deal with this: diplomacy. They agreed a deal where Iran agreed not to build nuclear weapons, and in exchange they removed sanctions on Iran. A win-win scenario for everyone (except Bibi). Trump then - completely inexplicably - decided that he could do better at negotiating a deal, ripped up Obama's one, and then decided to... plunge the Middle East into chaos.

> You know, none of this would have happened if Hamas didn't attack Israel on Oct 7. Iran should know. They paid for it.

Surely the man who decided it was a good idea to alllow Qatar to give Hamas lots of money is at least partially to blame? [1] Or perhaps the person who decided to advocate to the US government that they should sell weapons to Iran [2]

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-q... [2]: https://www.ft.com/content/8d75baf6-6756-4d52-a412-bc90bbbde...

busterarm · 3h ago
Nearly all of Iran's neighbors in the region except Jordan and Syria supported our withdrawal from the agreement. The only complaining was done by Iran, European nations and the UN.

Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the UAE, Egypt, etc all supported us.

sealeck · 3h ago
I really don't understand why you think this makes this a good idea. Saudi Arabia also decided to launch an extremely ill-fated and brutal invasion of Yemen, which worked out terribly for them and for the Yeminis. I don't think they have good judgement on this.
roboror · 3h ago
Ah so merely our most important and powerful allies disagreed with the move?
latency-guy2 · 2h ago
The Middle East is not strongly in the sphere of influence that Europeans have yes.

I promise you that the boots on the ground of the rest of the nations listed by the other person here is far more important here than strongly worded letters by the aging bureaucracy that governs the EU.

hiddencost · 2h ago
Not true.
Ar-Curunir · 2h ago
all those countries are effectively US vassals. Most of them have US military bases on their soil. Of course they’re going to do exactly what the US wants
righthand · 4h ago
This will surely reduce government spending.
ocdtrekkie · 4h ago
I mean I don't think anyone is still taking that goal seriously.
awakeasleep · 1h ago
It was originally serious only in shutting down the aspects of government that are a hinderance to large enterprise, and that part is just as serious as it ever was.
l33tbro · 3h ago
A superpower being beholden to Netanyahu's impulses beggars belief. Israel, their client state, acts out in aggression against its neighbour against US advice. The US bails them out and takes the fallout now. Astounding.

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drecho · 5h ago
Some in the U.S. want peace. I guess no one else gives a shit and is just going to jettison us into a war for millennia.
avoutos · 4h ago
Preventing Iran from having a nuke is IMO a good way of preserving peace. The allies tried appeasment and most historians agree that approach was one of the main causes of WWII.
runako · 3h ago
Huge difference here IMHO is that the west has been using this line for 40-50 years. At some point it's not "appeasement" and just "diplomacy between countries with differing values are complicated."

Put another way: if you want to call it appeasement, fine, it has worked for a long time. On the other hand, "peace via war" has a terrible track record.

lwansbrough · 3h ago
What if Iran simply didn’t develop nuclear weapons? Have you considered that option?
nsingh2 · 3h ago
What if the U.S. simply stopped interfering with other nations[1]? Have you considered that option? But of course, the U.S. can do whatever it wants because of its military might and the fact that it has nukes.

And there's the answer: on the world stage, you’d better be close friends with someone who has nukes, have your own, or be forced into a client state.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

lwansbrough · 2h ago
> But of course, the U.S. can do whatever it wants because of its military might and the fact that it has nukes.

Yes. Do not proliferate nuclear weapons. It’s not a big ask.

> you’d better be close friends with someone who has nukes

This is a completely acceptable and reasonable solution. It is how most of Europe operates.

nsingh2 · 2h ago
> Yes. Do not proliferate nuclear weapons. It’s not a big ask.

It's a very big ask to not proliferate nuclear weapons, because nukes correlate with sovereignty. You didn’t address that point at all.

> This is a completely acceptable and reasonable solution. It is how most of Europe operates.

US friendship in the case of Iran means a puppet ruler (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran). And now Europe is in the process of decoupling itself from the US. Not to mention how the US completely dropped support for Ukraine. Turns out relying on an "ally" for defense like this is not such a great idea.

Israel also understands this, and so has multiple nukes in its arsenal. Why did Israel "simply" not proliferate nuclear weapons even when it enjoyed the protection and support of the US?

yibg · 1h ago
If I was Iran, or any country on the US's naughty list, I would be trying to build a nuke as quickly and quietly as I can. It seems to be the only way to not get bombed.
runako · 3h ago
Has anyone credible said/demonstrated that they have developed nuclear weapons?

The US clearly does not believe they have operational nukes, or we would not have bombed them today. The actions undermine the official statements.

Put in realpolitik: would it be worth the US spending an Iraq War's expenditure of lives and $3 trillion to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon?

Why?

What makes this moment the place where the working approach of the last half-century simply cannot work another day?

lwansbrough · 3h ago
If they had already developed them, then we wouldn’t be having this discussion because nobody is going to war with a nuclear armed state.

The question is only, did they have the means to, and was there an indication they were? The answer is yes. They were enriching uranium at levels that go beyond anything non-nefarious. Their lead nuclear scientists were going to be meeting with their ballistic missile scientists (according to the dossier.)

On would it be worth it: nuclear proliferation is probably the most dangerous existential threat that humanity faces that is completely preventable. Iran is the most destabilizing country in the region and the cascade of nuclear proliferation that would occur if they succeeded would be a nightmare. That is easily worth $3T.

runako · 2h ago
If I’m a head of state in a contested region, I would read your post as an urgent appeal to make acquisition of nuclear capability as the top priority of the state.

Nonproliferation via war is not a viable approach.

This reminds me to read more on the game theory aspect of nuclear states. But I do find it fascinating that no nuclear-armed states have ever been in a shooting war. Interesting to speculate whether the Middle East could have seen less bloodshed over the decades if all the players had been armed since near the beginning of the nuclear age.

lwansbrough · 2h ago
One often under-appreciated aspect of proliferation is accidental detonation.

It is not safer for more states to have nukes simply because it introduces more variables that are hard or impossible to control.

And accidents/mistakes/miscommunications account for most (all?) of our closest calls with nukes.

runako · 2h ago
I agree with you about accidental detonation and nonproliferation in general.

But it is also clear that enforcement of nonproliferation without similarly muscular enforcement of sovereignty in general creates a huge incentive for proliferation.

If we truly want nonproliferation, it simply follows that powerful nations must stop actions like the Russian conquest in Ukraine and whatever Israel is doing in Iran. Every government at base has an incentive to do everything possible keep bombs from falling on its cities, and a demonstrated nuclear capability is the only proven way to do that in a regime where nuclear powers are allowed to act with impunity.

lwansbrough · 2h ago
I think one thing Iran could do would be to stop funding terrorism in the middle east and perhaps also not threaten the complete destruction of Israel while simultaneously pursuing nuclear weapons. That seems to have sent the wrong message by the looks of it.
runako · 1h ago
Conflating things with nonproliferation detracts from the effort to prevent that singular threat. Now we are weighing the global, persistent threat of more nuclear weapons against regional terrorism and proving unable to decide which is more important. This, in a case where by nature of the problem, “both” is not an acceptable answer.

Maybe we are detracting from some regional terrorism at the margins while increasing incentives for nuclear proliferation. I don’t think that’s a smart trade off, but that’s where we are headed.

euW3EeBe · 2h ago
> Iran is the most destabilizing country in the region

You misspelled Israel, and a reminder that Israel is the only nation in the region with multiple nuclear warheads.

https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/06/israel-iran-w...

jjk166 · 1h ago
They tried that. Saddam gassed them.
barbazoo · 2h ago
Some people say Iran having a nuke isn’t the threat some think it is.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jdxxVxtHK2M

CamperBob2 · 4h ago
I must've missed the part where Iran invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland.
kelnos · 4h ago
I think GP's point was that it's better to act now, before Iran does the equivalent of invading Czechoslovakia or Poland.
siltcakes · 4h ago
Israel has been doing that for almost 80 years and they have nuclear weapons.
int_19h · 3h ago
What would be the equivalent of Czechoslovakia and Poland and this scenario?
jjk166 · 1h ago
Ah yes, like when we prevented Germany from ever being a problem again with the Treaty of Versailles.
user3939382 · 4h ago
Appeasement for an imaginary weapons program our own director of national intelligence just said they don’t have.

Copy and paste this nonsense argument for Iraq 3 trillion dollars ago.

avoutos · 3h ago
Iran definitely has a nuclear weapons program. The question is how close it is to a bomb. I find it hard to believe the oil-rich nation of Iran builds a nuclear facility underneath a hardened mountain for altruistic purposes.

Iran has not yet built a bomb because the program has been repeatedly set back over the years:

https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-timeline-tensions-con...

I would not support an all out invasion of Iran with American troops a la iraq, but if all it takes is a few bunker busters collecting dust in the U.S> arsenal to set back Iran's program a few more years or decades, I see that as a win.

user3939382 · 3h ago
Interesting that you have more intelligence on Iran than our director of national intelligence.
lwansbrough · 3h ago
Tulsi Gabbard isn’t exactly a high bar.
amanaplanacanal · 2h ago
She does have the combined resources of all of the US intelligence services.
lwansbrough · 2h ago
I just wouldn’t put much stock into anything she says about anything.
user3939382 · 1h ago
Why, because she’s not a DNC loyalist / bloodthirsty chickenhawk?
wnevets · 2h ago
I was told trump was the peace president.
codedokode · 2h ago
He promised to end a war but instead started another one.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
We will know shortly whether bombing 700 spinning motors that we’re building death spheres is an act of war…
jjk166 · 1h ago
Well if someone did it to our enrichment plants, it would be an act of war.
IdontKnowRust · 4h ago
This is definitely a bold movement, I pray for peace, And hoping US stops jumping in conflicts that are not theirs
nsingh2 · 3h ago
This absolutely is a conflict that the US has been involved in from near the start [1]. This a continuation of that, not something entirely new.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CsJPrHcaBs

hnthrowaway0315 · 4h ago
Well one better goes for the bomb if one decided to go above 60% (because whatelse do you plan?). Apparently using it as a bargain doesn't work out as expected.

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yencabulator · 3h ago
Vietnam -> Gulf War = 15 years

Gulf War -> US invasion of Iraq = 12 years

US invasion of Iraq -> USA, Iran & Israel = 22 years

Looks like it's time for USA to feed a new generation of grunts into the PTSD grinder again.

hackernoops · 2h ago
Certain 'people' aren't going to get rich off of the suffering of others out of nowhere.
beefnugs · 1h ago
Damn, but have they so blatantly cut vet benefits and support right before the need for massive recruits in the past?

Why would anyone sign up for military service after dump has personally pissed in their faces?

kmnc · 3h ago
War is a racket, move along we got bombs to sell. All I can hope is that somehow someway the Iranian people will be better off in the future. Well at least America has its enemy again, the immigrants as enemy wasn’t going over as smoothly as expected. Religion and culture wars are just so much easier.

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MarkMarine · 5h ago
This is astonishing. Our intelligence concluded Iran wasn’t moving towards a nuke and we hit them anyway, using peace negotiations as a ruse. No authorization from the representatives of the people who actually fight in the war, no thought of what this will do.

If the comparison with how we treat hostile forces with nuclear weapons wasn’t more stark. N. Korea is basically left alone, their leader praised. Libya gives up nukes and then the state falls in on itself.

This is proving to any state that nuclear arms are really the only protection. The world is less safe, and the next generation of young men like me (20 years ago) are about to be thrown into the meat grinder, sent by a ruling class that doesn’t even answer to the people anymore.

We’ve really lost our way.

shihab · 4h ago
This strike didn't happen to protect Americans from nukes, this happened to protect a rogue politician who was about to be impeached by his countrymen, and to make the Greater Israel project come true.

Reminder, a recent survey found 16% American supported an offensive strike against Iran.[1]

[1] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/19/israel-iran-war-americans-p...

No comments yet

kurtis_reed · 2h ago
The intelligence was that Iran was moving toward a nuke, they just weren't there yet.
jjk166 · 1h ago
The intelligence said the opposite, that they had not decided to develop a nuke.
EnPissant · 4h ago
If not to build a nuke, why have a secret uranium enrichment facility built over 250 ft under a mountain?
Terr_ · 4h ago
That argument only works when normal aboveground civilian infrastructure won't get bombed anyway on suspicion.

Then both kinds require the same protection, and protection can't be used to distinguish between them.

"She's obviously a witch, because she's been living deep in the forest all suspicious-like ever since we burned down her cursed house."

kelnos · 4h ago
60% enriched uranium is not quite considered weapons-grade, but also has no civilian applications. Hiding the facility is immaterial if the facility is doing stuff that isn't useful for non-weapon work.
mensetmanusman · 1h ago
It would have worked if Iran had stopped also paying people to shoot missiles so often and donating to kill Ukraine.
yyyk · 4h ago
Iran did not expect to be bombed back at all, which is why their defenses were so shoddy around nearly everything. The _only_ thing having this level of protection is the enrichment facility.
EnPissant · 4h ago
There is no non-nuclear weapon purpose valuable enough to build such a facility. It's obviously for nuclear bombs.
codedokode · 2h ago
So every country which has facilities to enrich uranium, needs to be bombed, correct?
EnPissant · 2h ago
That's a separate question. I am just responding to the people saying we don't know they are enriching uranium for nuclear weapons. Of course they are.
buzzerbetrayed · 1h ago
If you honestly think Iran is enriching uranium for clean energy, I have a bridge to sell you.
jjk166 · 1h ago
The publicly revealed, internationally inspected secret uranium enrichment facility?
MarkMarine · 4h ago
Credible deterrent against stuff like this?
EnPissant · 4h ago
> Our intelligence concluded Iran wasn’t moving towards a nuke

> Credible deterrent against stuff like this?

You mean the credible deterrent is moving towards a nuke?

MarkMarine · 4h ago
That is the point of what I was saying, yes.

Look I dgaf about what Iran was doing, there is no wool over my eyes about what that state is capable of. I saw the IEDs with copper cones used to kill and maim my friends, they almost certainly came from Iran.

What I care about is: congress declares war, not the executive. The people should decide, and we just stepped 10 steps closer to the monarchy we tried to depose 250 years ago.

christophilus · 4h ago
This has been happening my entire 40+ years of life. I agree it shouldn’t, but this ain’t anything new. If this makes Trump a monarchy, then every president since 2000 was a monarch.
dragontamer · 3h ago
Straw, camel, back.

2024 Trump is using the power of the executive in ways even more grotesquely than 2016 Trump.

archsurface · 4h ago
They could have simply had IAEA inspections.
smashah · 4h ago
Trump ripped up JCPOA and you know this. Israel could also do that. Oh but wait then the inspections would find stolen American nuclear material.
archsurface · 4h ago
Communication lines are always open for discussion and negotiation; the end of one agreement doesn't mean no more agreements.
yibg · 1h ago
Agreement requires 2 sides doesn't it? Who's agreeing on the American side?
CamperBob2 · 4h ago
Gee, I dunno. Because some berserk moron might attack their country, maybe?

Countries without nukes get victimized by countries with nukes. If you haven't noticed this pattern yet, there's not much hope for you.

smashah · 4h ago
The premise of going to war with a country because that country may have the capability to win/end it is quite demonic circular reasoning. In this case IL/US should preemptively bunker bust every person in the region that has sovereign will. I think only when the entire region is replaced by Tesla Robots loyal to western chauvinism then IL/US can finally feel safe from the consequences of their own actions like committing genocides.

I visited Nagasaki/Hiroshima a few years ago, at the end of both memorials there are celebrations of NPTs and denuclearization efforts with veneers of 90's nostalgia - as if the job were done. How wrong we all were, today 2 non-NPT nuclear powers bombed a NPT non-nuclear power to prevent imaginary WMD Nukes, triggering a possible regional conflict that will kill millions. The only country that shouldn't have nukes is America - they dropped 2 for vibes because the Nazis already surrendered and they wanted to try out their new toy. IL\US project their genocidal tendencies onto others then claim preemptive strikes. Both countries a threat to world peace. It's clear now the only way these two countries leave you alone is if you have a nuke. Any sovereign logical leader will now pursue them. IL/US have made the world a much more dangerous place just because they want to continue the holocaust of Gaza.

Shame.

archsurface · 4h ago
Gabbard has recently stated that's not true, that she was quoted out of context.
shihab · 4h ago
Her statement directly contradicted her testimony. After recent Trump's open dismissal of her remark, she had to say this to keep her job.
tbrownaw · 1h ago
My understanding is that actually making a bomb once you have the material for it just isn't that hard. Her statements are only contradictory if it is hard (and slow).
archsurface · 4h ago
She stated they had unprecedented levels of enriched uranium for a country without weapons.
k310 · 4h ago
Declaration of War vs. Authorization for Use of Military Force: How America Goes to War

https://govfacts.org/explainer/declaration-of-war-vs-authori...

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t0lo · 2h ago
Seems like a lot of spin comments here that are turning people away from the political subservience of the united states that got the world into this mess

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yyyk · 4h ago
Just about every intelligence agency and expert agrees on nearly all the data. The debate and the 'conflicting' reports are mainly a matter of definitions.

The data is that Iran has some weapons research, and have/had about 400kg of 60% enriched Uranium (no civilian use), an higher amount of lower grade enriched Uranium, and a certain number of centrifuges for enrichment.

The interpretation bit is regarding what's called 'weaponization' (aka taking all the materials and converting them to a bomg):

A modern bomb would use >90% (preferably >95%) Uranium and an implosion mechanism and be light and small enough to put on a common ballistic missile. While getting to 90% would have been easy for them (at one time they 'accidentally' enriched to 88%), they haven't done it yet, and it isn't entirely clear how close they are on miniaturization.

A hacky bomb could use a lower grade of Uranium (60% would barely do if they pooled all of it), be much heavier (it comes with the lower grade), possibly use a simpler gun-type mechanism, and would have to be delivered with some custom mechanism.

So 'weapons grade' could mean '90% and above', or it could mean 'enriched to a level that has no use apart from building weapons'. 'Distance to a bomb' could mean 'distance from what can be easily delivered' or 'distance from any fissile explosive'.

tguvot · 3h ago
they tested implosion devices back in 2003 https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-carried-implosion-tests-nucl...

for totally civilian purposes...

codedokode · 3h ago
I am a little confused. Is bombing a sovereign country under far-fetched excuse considered ok or not today?
grugagag · 3h ago
For the world I want to live in it is not. Seems surreal but maybe it’s not that world anymore, and I fear it will get worse.
lwansbrough · 3h ago
What is far fetched about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon?
sealeck · 3h ago
Lack of nuclear weapon.
lwansbrough · 3h ago
You can’t prevent them from developing a nuclear weapon if you wait until they have it.

They were enriching uranium near weapons-grade levels. What more evidence do you need without seeing an actual assembled nuclear weapon?

sealeck · 1h ago
I mean do you think the Iranian government is more incentivised to build a nuclear weapon before or after??
cbg0 · 17m ago
The goal was to stop their progress, not reduce/increase incentives.
billfor · 3h ago
It's OK.
MangoToupe · 5h ago
So much for humanity learning from its mistakes....
arp242 · 3h ago
"But this time it's different!"

IMHO the Israeli policy of punching everyone so hard they're reeling is a massive mistake for Israel in the long term. It works great short-term, but 50 years? 100 years? Who knows what the world will look like then, and being surrounded by enemies is not going to work well when you no longer have your fancy US-backed missile shields and whatnot. The best long-term bet is for normalised relationship with its neighbours, and every time something like this happens that gets set back 20 years at least.

Then again, they had already given up on that with how it treated the Palestinians both in Gaza and West-Bank...

This doesn't mean military action is never an option under any circumstances, but no nation can perpetuate hostilities forever. Whether it's 50, 100, or 200 years: this has a massive risk of coming back to bite Israel hard.

sorcerer-mar · 3h ago
Yeah IMO the last 2 years (and especially 5 hours) have pretty much permanently shattered Israel's privileged child status in the US. Their actions in Gaza have fractured leftwing support, and dragging the US into this war have fractured rightwing support.

Hope they're building other friendships in the region, I don't see the unquestioning US patronage lasting much longer.

Stevvo · 2h ago
Would be nice if that were the reality, but it couldn't be further from it. US support for Israeli is stronger than it ever has been.
moogly · 1h ago
> Their actions in Gaza have fractured leftwing support,

Chuck Schumer still supports killing and maiming toddlers though.

FuckButtons · 42m ago
Trump doesn’t seem like the kind of person to learn from his, or anyone else's mistakes.
hagbard_c · 5h ago
That remains to be seen and, in another universe, could have been said about someone not keeping a nation from creating nuclear weaponry which it subsequently used against its opponents.
giantg2 · 3h ago
Well, CSOCs are likely to get busy this week.

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pelagicAustral · 5h ago
I fell for the "two more weeks" meme...
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 · 4h ago
Ngl.. so did I.
Kye · 5h ago
They didn't finish manufacturing consent yet. Novice mistake.
yongjik · 5h ago
It's Trump. He could bomb LA and 30% of Americans will cheer for it. I'm not sure consent matters.

Hopefully the ensuing economic meltdown will sour enough Americans before too many people are killed, but who knows.

ExaltedPunt · 3h ago
A large portion of Trump's base are very unhappy about bombing Iran and are very critical of any comments that are pro-war in general. I see it in a lot of comments sections and social media message to the effect of "I voted for Trump, and I didn't vote for this (war in Iran)".

Generally, Any prominent pro-Israel republican if they post anything pro-war will have hundreds of negative replies.

It is incredibly depressing to see people constantly falling into the trap that their political opposition are dumb / brainwashed.

cempaka · 5h ago
Either they believe it is no longer necessary, or they are facing some other set of constraints that is making it less feasible.
MangoToupe · 5h ago
I've got to imagine the israel lobby is putting an enormous amount of pressure on DC to attack.
xnx · 4h ago
Did I miss the part where Congress declared war or is that passe?
wmf · 3h ago
It's not a war, it's a limited engagement or whatever.
endemic · 3h ago
A “special operation”
sealeck · 3h ago
A "special military operation", perhaps?
oceansky · 3h ago
Even Vietnam wasn't formally declared as a war. Last formal declaration was WWII.
soraminazuki · 3h ago
As I understand it, congress still authorized the use of force. Nowadays, the president effectively bypasses congress using the 2 decades old authorization for the use of force against the overly broad threat of "terror."
goodluckchuck · 3h ago
A declaration of war is an invitation for the other side to attack. Rather than being a restraint against war, empowering Congress to declare war allows them to force a potentially unwilling president into war.
typeofhuman · 2h ago
Weird how this is front page but a post for the wiki page of the Northrop B-2 Spirit gets flagged.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44341958

Here's the interesting wiki: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit

pvg · 2h ago
A discussion of a major world event makes a lot more sense than a discussion of something tangentially related to a major world event. People sensibly flag the tangential stuff as effective dupes - it wouldn't really make sense to have a front page discussion about the event as well as a front page discussion about a plane.
msgodel · 5h ago
Yeah there was no good reason for that. The main thing I liked about Trump is that he didn't start any wars his first term, if he gets us into a war I'm going to be fucking mad.
cmilton · 4h ago
I know he likes to insinuate that, but it’s simply not true.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Shayrat_missile_strike

While you are correct it wasn’t a war, but neither is this technically.

b0sk · 3h ago
It is fascinating. He lies so much, keeps repeating those lies and somehow people start believing those lies.
foogazi · 4h ago
They have to believe it to have a reason to like Trump
ekianjo · 3h ago
He did strike Syria during his first term
standardUser · 3h ago
> if he gets us into a war I'm going to be fucking mad

Maybe Trump will claim the airstrikes were just a joke, like he does when he tells his supporters to use violence towards other Americans. Otherwise, the United States is definitely, unambiguously at war with Iran.

CamperBob2 · 4h ago
11/29/11: "In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran."

1/17/12: "@BarackObama will attack Iran in order to get re-elected."

9/16/13: "I predict that President Obama will at some point attack Iran in order save face!"

11/10/13: "Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly - not skilled!"

"If Kamala wins, only death and destruction await because she is the candidate of endless wars. I am the candidate of peace. I am peace." - Presidential debate, 2024

If you voted for Trump, you voted precisely for this. Every accusation from him is either a confession in disguise or an unfulfilled wish.

fallingknife · 4h ago
Every accusation from Trump is some random line he pulled out of his ass on the spot, and people like you keep falling for it and trying to divine some grand strategy out of it.
lesuorac · 3h ago
Every accusation from Trump is something he himself is doing or thing about doing.

It's not random.

testrun · 5h ago
According to Trump Fordow is gone.(https://x.com/Osint613/status/1936577812866945296)

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deepsquirrelnet · 2h ago
Is “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE” about to become the new “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED”?

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hearsathought · 2h ago
Imagine if Putin got Trump to bomb ukraine for him. Imagine if Xi got Trump to bomb Taiwan for him. There would be a crisis in this country as the media would be attacking trump for being a stooge to a foreign power.

How is it possible that a foreign leader, Netanyahu ( who has lied in the past to get us to attack iraq ), can get Trump to bomb Iran and nobody, especially in the media, bats an eye.

The media is focused on the bombing, but shouldn't the focus be on foreign control over much of the US government? After years of soul searching over the iraq fiasco and the lies can we still be in this position again?

jmyeet · 2h ago
I sympathize with people thinking Israel is wagging the dog but I don't think it's true.

Israel exists in the way that it does and does what it does because we allow it to. It is a toolf our imperial interests, not the other way around. To argue otherwise absolves us of our responsibility and can often descend into antisemitism (which I oppose).

We have described Israel as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in a region we want to destabilize becuase it has resources that are important to us.

Oh and this is uniparty too. Don't kid yourselves if you think things would be different if the Democrats were in power. It would not. There is universal agreement on US foreign policy across both parties. The events in Gaza began under a Democratic president who did absolutely nothing to rein Israel in where he could've ended it with a phone call.

There is no opposition to what Israel is doing. Even now, Democratic leaders in Congress aren't complaining about what the president is doing and has done. They're complaining that they weren't consulted. And not to oppose it but to have the opportunity to express their support.

And yes, the media is absolutely complicit in what's going on too.

aaron695 · 5h ago
The bunker busters will not have worked on Fordow.

(It will be the first time a GBU-57A/B has been used in war, which is interesting)

They needed troops on the ground. Israel was going to do this.

It's possible they have just collapsed the entrances.

Trumps comments - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump You have a loop, @Osint613 reposted Trump as "Fordow is gone" which Trump reposted. Neither of them have any idea.

(Natanz, Isfahan were already hit and damaged by Israel, the US didn't bother to bunker bust them, it was Tomahawks from subs )

3D model of Fordow - https://x.com/TheIntelLab/status/1398716540485308417

You need a tactical nuke to destroy Fordow, but the USA considers tactical the same as strategic, so it would be very unlikely. Russia could, since they put tactical in a different category.

lunar-whitey · 3h ago
Expert opinions seem to differ on this. We will know once enough satellite and signal intelligence data has been analyzed for US leadership to ascertain whether further strikes may be required.

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Havoc · 3h ago
Saw reports that natanz did get 2x too
sadaaqat · 4h ago
I can see many problems with his plan.

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senectus1 · 3h ago
sigh this is Iraq all over again.

watch as the US is now dragged into 10-20 years of war in the middle east again.

barbazoo · 2h ago
Which stock do I buy
FuckButtons · 40m ago
Not TSMC.
fldskfjdslkfj · 4h ago
Prediction: Iran will fold somewhat quickly and history will remember this as good move.
hkpack · 4h ago
Alternative prediction: Destabilized Iran will make another migration crisis in Europe, will divide it politically because of the rise of anti immigrant far right, and finally set the scene for a full scale european war with russia, followed by other counties on both sides.

US will be forced to join and millions of its citizen will die in WW3.

riLTSfxA9FSX · 2h ago
Okay, now we know the position of the jihadist left slaughtering thousands of citizens across Europe.
ericmay · 4h ago
Why would there be more migrants to Europe from Iran?
hkpack · 4h ago
The same reason there were millions of refugees from Syria or Libya or Ukraine or because of any other instability in the region.

There is just no much other places for people to run when shit hits fan.

ericmay · 3h ago
Maybe, but the EU has different policies and a different understanding of immigration now compared to say 2010-2023, right? Also those countries you mentioned are a bit closer to Europe compared to Iran.

But I’m also not sure that the situations are comparable. In the case of Ukraine which is probably most similar to Iran from an economic standpoint, had many refugees who were temporarily fleeing Russian aggression but planned to return to Ukraine. Iran, especially if/when it’s out from under sanctions has a more robust economy and geopolitical forces going for it, versus Libya or Syria, in my view.

hkpack · 3h ago
It won’t matter what the policies are as the majority of refugees will try to get to the EU illegally.

Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed.

ericmay · 3h ago
It will matter because they can have policies like “stricter border control” to stop legal or illegal immigration. It’s like Pakistan and how they closed their border to refugees from Iran.

> Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed.

Sure it depends on what all happens, but my point was it is different than Syria or Libya in many aspects.

abletonlive · 3h ago
"migration crisis in Europe"

well, that's entirely self inflicted by Europe at this point. i know the great china wall is pretty but there's actually nothing separating china from that landmass. there's no "migration crisis" in china.

nemothekid · 3h ago
>but there's actually nothing separating china

Yeah man, nothing except 2000+ miles of the largest mountain ranges in the fucking world. Are you serious man?

hkpack · 3h ago
Yeah, thanks for the war in Iraq and for the raise of ISIS, and for the war in Syria and now destabilizing Iran.

“self inflicted”

sealeck · 3h ago
I know that this kind of comment makes sense from the American perspective (based on past US actions in South America) but the EU is not actually responsible for massively destabilising the Middle East.
Avshalom · 4h ago
"Point / Counterpoint: This War Will Destabilize the Entire Mideast and Set Off a Shockwave of Anti-Americanism VS. No It Won’t“
riku_iki · 3h ago
Iran and allies already did what they could during Gaza escalation. Their projection power is rather limited.
discordance · 4h ago
Noam Chomsky, "Is Iran a threat?" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdxxVxtHK2M

(... no)

raincole · 4h ago
They'll do some symbolic attacks against the US bases in ME.

But yeah, I do think history will remember this as one of the few good things Trump does.

carabiner · 3h ago
Russia will bump up arms shipments to Iran. We'll have no choice but to strike interior of Russia. Russia will not hit mainland US, but will attack US bases across Western Europe. This will be WW3.
int_19h · 3h ago
Russia needs everything it can manufacture for itself to use in Ukraine, and they have already gotten everything useful there was to get from Iran, so the latter is on their own.
biglyburrito · 1h ago
This absolutely will not happen. Iran has been shipping missiles & drones TO Russia, because Russia can't domestically produce enough of either to sustain their war against Ukraine.
gsibble · 4h ago
Exactly what I think will happen. I think it's already inevitable.

The IDF has total air superiority. The regime has very little capabilities left at all.

coffeefirst · 3h ago
Okay. But then what?

In Lebanon the state is attempting to reassert itself. In Syria the rebels took control. But with no foreign boots on the ground, and no organized opposition ready to step in, what exactly is supposed to happen after the regime folds?

siltcakes · 4h ago
Iran has been bombing Israeli targets at will, including Tel Aviv. Israel doesn't even have control over their own airspace.
827a · 3h ago
Its actually incredible how this exact thing could have been done by any other President and half the people losing their minds about WW3 in these comments wouldn't have even logged on to comment.
testrun · 5h ago
According to NYT the US is now at war with Iran: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-tr...

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anonu · 3h ago
A consequential night for Israel: peace for many decades to come. I worry, however, that peace through bombing is not a permanent solution. Peace comes through diplomacy. Ideology does not die in the rubble.

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vaughands · 5h ago
Seriously, what is the benefit to the US here? I can't understand how this benefits the country at all.
kumarvvr · 3h ago
If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East, especially with Saudis, who will want their own nukes.

Iran getting nukes is the spark that will start a lot of chain reactions.

And islamic populations are radicalized enough that the possibility of a nuke on Israel increases dramatically.

selcuka · 2h ago
> If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East

A fair concern, but it is interesting that although "estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads" [1], we are not concerned about those warheads as much as we do about the ones Iran might have. Should US bomb Israeli nuclear plants? No. Should they have bombed the Iranian ones? Why?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel

yonisto · 2h ago
Because in Israel they don't chant "death to Iran" for the past 46 year.

Amazingly none of Israel immediate neighbors, whom she has peace deals with, felt the need to obtain Nuclear weapons (Jordan/Egypt).

Israel is 1500km from Iran, people in Israel don't care about Iran they only think about Iran in the context of the weekly threats to destroy Ireal for the past 46 years. Iran on the other hand has a fucked up regime. That's the difference.

heavyset_go · 1h ago
> Death to Arabs is an anti-Arab slogan originating in Israel. It is often used during protests and civil disturbances across Israel, the West Bank, and to a lesser extent, the Gaza Strip. Depending on the person's temperament, it may specifically be an expression of anti-Palestinianism or otherwise a broader expression anti-Arab sentiment, which includes non-Palestinian Arabs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_to_Arabs

0dayz · 1h ago
Point to the country known as "Arabs".
heavyset_go · 1h ago
I forgot that the state of Israel is more important than the lives of a half billion people.
vFunct · 2h ago
Israel has always threatened its neighbors. Remember, it was born as a group of European Jews that attacked Palestine to conquer their land, with arms provided to them by Europe. It will always exist under a state of war.

We have to let Israel die off and change our alliances. An alliance with Iran would be much more beneficial to America than an alliance with Israel.

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all_factz · 2h ago
Have you been to Israel? I have cousins there. When I was 14 and visited, my 19 year old cousin told me we need to kill all the Arabs because “if we exile them, they will just come back.” Do you really think (a large segment of) Israelis are less crazy than (a large segment of) Iranians?
partiallypro · 55m ago
We didn't want Israel to have nukes either, we tried to stop them and failed. We wouldn't bomb Israel's nukes because they -already- have them, and they have grown in a semi-reliable regional ally since then. We are trying to stop Iran from having them at all to prevent them from being essentially off-limits to retaliation (note Iran is the #1 state sponsor of terrorism / people's fears of supporting Ukraine given Russia keeps threatening nuclear action) and kicking off a regional nuclear arms race.
buzzerbetrayed · 2h ago
Maybe it has something to do with Israel being an ally and Iran sponsoring terrorism all over the region
nashashmi · 3h ago
Islamic populations?
kumarvvr · 3h ago
Most of Islamic republics are fiefdoms, kingdoms and dictatorships. Most of the populations are radicalized, and have very limited freedom of speech and right to protest.
Ar-Curunir · 2h ago
Have you lived in any of these Islamic countries?
booleandilemma · 2h ago
You just have to read a wikipedia article on them. No need to live there.
kumarvvr · 2h ago
Is that a pre-condition to know about countries, leaderships and general public?

I have not lived in the US, and I know a lot about the US national character.

Ar-Curunir · 20m ago
Yes, I would say that making sweeping statements about a populace does require actual first-hand experience with said populace.
danenania · 3h ago
I think this attack makes it more likely they’ll get nukes, not less. They moved all their enriched uranium already, and now they know that there’s no longer any point in diplomacy.

The next facilities they build will be a few times deeper, and I have no doubt we’ll soon be hearing that ground troops are the only way to stop them.

dlubarov · 3h ago
They had already crossed the line into nuclear tech that's specifically for weapons, i.e. with a 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. Unless we accept explanations like "scientific curiosity", they were already somewhere in the process of building nuclear weapons, even if success wasn't immanent.

I don't know how long these operations will set them back, but if the Iranian regime won't willingly refrain from nuclear weapons work, isn't a delay better than nothing?

jjk166 · 1h ago
60% enrichment is not weapons grade. Weapons grade is 80%. High enrichment is used in certain reactor designs, such as naval reactors.

There are a lot of reasons to be enriching uranium besides building nuclear weapons. Considering the US reneged on its deal to drop sanctions in exchange for Iran to not enrich uranium, it is pretty obviously useful as a bargaining chip, in the negotiations.

The US intelligence community assessed that Iran has not been working on a bomb since the program was shut down in 2003. They didn't want a nuke, they wanted an end to sanctions. They further wanted to avoid provoking exactly this sort of conflict. This did not delay them getting nuclear weapons, it will make them get nuclear weapons.

dlubarov · 1h ago
To quote an ISIS report, "Iran has no civilian use or justification for its production of 60 percent enriched uranium, particularly at the level of hundreds of kilograms". In theory it could be for naval propulsion, but experts (including IAEA inspectors) seem unconvinced.
jjk166 · 52m ago
They had a very obvious use for it: trade it to the US in exchange for sanctions relief.
danenania · 2h ago
They “could have” had nuclear weapons for a long time if they’d wanted to, yes, but they didn’t get them. They signed the NPT, allowed inspections, and their ruler issued a fatwa against developing nuclear weapons. Why’d they do all that if their goal all along was to get a nuclear weapon? They could have just done it.

These attacks make it clear that they would have been better off if they had gotten them, so it seems reasonable to assume this will be their new policy. What other strategic choice have they been left with?

dlubarov · 2h ago
Just to clarify, is your position that Iran was never working toward nuclear weapons, or just not until recently? I think enriching uranium to 60% is pretty clear evidence of their intent, even though it's just one component of an eventual weapon.

Being an NPT signatory could be evidence of Iran not working toward nuclear weapons, if they were compliant. But they have violated their NPT obligations on some occasions, with major violations recently.

danenania · 1h ago
I think they wanted to be seen as credibly close as a deterrent and bargaining chip in negotiations, but they had no intention of going all the way unless attacked.

Now they likely do intend to get them asap if they’re able to.

mupuff1234 · 3h ago
Those can be bombed right at the beginning. Israel will probably try to establish a similar status que as in Lebanon right now - "if you make a move we immediately take it out".

And the development of a nuclear sites leaves a significant intelligence trail, not sure it can be hidden.

(Of course they can always be gifted a bomb, but that's a very different story)

danenania · 3h ago
Yeah I’m sure it will be a huge success with no unforeseen consequences whatsoever. Since that’s how these things have been going over the last thirty years.
mupuff1234 · 56m ago
Can't that be said about every path of action in this scenario?
jenny91 · 2h ago
Almost a kind of domino theory, if you will?
vFunct · 2h ago
And that's something we will have to accept, that Islamic populations will always have nukes.

How do you plan to handle a world with Islamic populations having nukes? Because that's something you will have to plan for. You have no choice. They will not let you not let them have nukes. They will make sure they will have nukes. That's just given.

proc0 · 3h ago
The US is the leader of the liberal empire which depends on the middle east allowing trade. Iran is standing in the way of this and wants to push back the empire's control away from the middle east... but they have their own plans to establish another empire of their own.

I know "empire" is maybe an outdated term but I'm just illustrating there are bigger incentives than at the national level. Ironically it is conservative nationalists (who are hated by the Left) that want the empire to shrink and for the US to pull back from this leadership position. The risk here is it could also destabilize the entire world, but that's a different matter.

In short, this move is an attempt to strengthen the status quo that began after WW2.If the status quo is maintained it directly benefits the US.

Workaccount2 · 3h ago
People who were born into, grew up in, and live the current western bubble take it for granted and genuinely believe it is something natural rather than carefully built and expensively maintained - for extraordinary benefit.
frollogaston · 2h ago
I don't take it for granted, but Israel and these trillion-dollar Mid East wars don't seem to help it. China and Russia must be very pleased with the US being so distracted for the past 50 years while they established economic control even in the Mid East.
tombh · 2h ago
If I had only one wish, it would be to burst this bubble.
komali2 · 3h ago
> for extraordinary benefit.

I'm seeing a lot of death and the payoff is... Cheap gas prices? I can't imagine what. But the replies to this laying out all the benefits of blood soaked American hegemony I'm sure will be great for a laugh.

MegaButts · 3h ago
The petrodollar, which largely depends on the US having significant influence over global oil supply, is arguably the main reason why the USD is the global reserve currency and an enormous reason why the US is as wealthy as it is.
dralley · 2h ago
The petrodollar is severely overrated by people who claim it's the cause for every foreign policy decision they disagree with. USD is attractive because the US government is stable and US companies are attractive investments, due to a historical track record of competence and rule of law adherence - unlike, say, Saudi currency, or Russian currency, or Chinese currency. The US government doesn't do a lot of currency manipulation relative to those other countries either.

Of course, that historical record is being shat upon currently, and the importance of petroleum is on a downward trajectory from here on.

frollogaston · 2h ago
We aren't even really getting cheap gas prices out of this. Iran is one of the largest oil producers, and we won't allow trade with them, so instead we've built a relationship with other dictatorships like Saudi Arabia, who know we have no other choice. But our actions are also straining that.
guelo · 3h ago
This is the opposite of how I see it. This move is a complete repudiation of the post-ww2 order that emphasized the system of international laws and treaties developed by the UN. For the US to blindly follow Israel into a war with a sovereign country without even taking it to the UN or Congress is preposterous and signals the end of the post-ww2 and American domestic order. Both the UN Charter and the US Constitution are trashed and we won't recover from it in our life times. There's a reason Bush W sent Colin Powell to the UN, we still paid lip service to the rule of law 20 years ago. We don't even pretend anymore. We are trashing our laws and institution all at the behest of some a tiny racist religious extremist country.
lunar-whitey · 3h ago
I don’t envy the position of American diplomats the next time they are asked to negotiate an off-ramp from hostilities while military options are simultaneously being considered. Intentional or not, the diplomatic posture leading up to this point reads like diversion.
jaybrendansmith · 2h ago
This is also how I see it. This child-man has just blown 80 years of careful control and credibility. Who allowed this to happen? A bunch of feckless children, who should never have been allowed to rule. Way to go, people. It all goes downhill from here.
proc0 · 2h ago
"the system of international laws and treaties" are only effective to the extent that someone is going to enforce it, and that someone is the US and its allies. So ultimately it's military power that matters.

The status quo is only maintained because the US has military bases all over the world. If we retreat from the world and let Iran do whatever it wants (which is more influence and an Islamic empire), the the world order crumbles and that has an even more increased chance of WW3, as multiple nations will fight over the void left behind by the US.

Part of the reason things are unfolding this way is because the US rose to world power with the invention of the nuclear bomb.... which automatically means that toppling the US might mean nuclear war, which spells doom for the entire world. Not sure I would call that luck, but that is why the world cannot change to a new world order easily without existential risk. And as the "world police" the US doesn't want non-allies to get the bomb for this reason (something that Trump has been saying for years, which proves he is just maintaining status quo).

nocoiner · 2h ago
I hate how much I agree with this assessment.
cloverich · 1h ago
You realize we (us) are a large, religious, racist country? Generally speaking, anti muslim, anti Iran sentiment is EXTREMELY high in the parts of the US that voted for Trump, at least based on my personal network.
macintux · 2h ago
Trump has undermined the status quo at every opportunity. He feels the US hasn’t been compensated for its efforts.
hiddencost · 2h ago
Nonsense. The history of the US is one of regime change wars and genocide.
jandrewrogers · 4h ago
Keeping the Arab world from building their own nuclear weapons has long been contingent on Iran not having a nuclear weapons program. It only benefits the US to the extent it prevents the situation where half the countries in the Middle East having nuclear weapons.

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arandomusername · 5h ago
It doesn't. It's all because Israel has extreme influence over US politicians.
twelve40 · 3h ago
the dude needs a PR win of some kind. I guess he gave up on the Nobel prize and decided to try something else. Aside from that, could really be a chance to end the nukes there and try to topple the regime, who knows what's going to happen, but time-wise now is the best opportunity.
slv77 · 2h ago
This paper from 1999 provides some context about the US and Israel relationship in the context of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

The third temple's holy of holies : Israel's nuclear weapons

https://dp.la/item/525bc46d51878c5e285d9069a80246d0

Jtsummers · 5h ago
It benefits the MIC, this is unlikely to be the end of this conflict.
Schnitz · 3h ago
The world is better off if a theocracy whose leadership believes in jihad doesn’t have nukes.
Smeevy · 1h ago
We should probably keep nukes away from these NAR whackadoodles and their puppets as well.
CapricornNoble · 2h ago
Why do you highlight that the theocracy "believes in jihad" and not that the theocracy has issued a religious decree opposing weapons of mass destruction?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei%27s_fatwa_against...

scythe · 3h ago
If this was about the benefit to the United States, then we would have had months of public buildup and debate like we did with the war in Iraq. It is hardly an example of a good decision, but history shows that it was at least a popular one; the majority of poll respondents and of legislators were both in favor of the initial invasion of Iraq. I was only eleven at the time, but I remember most moderate Democrats and independents who I knew (including, particularly, my seventh-grade history teacher, who was no fan of Bush) were in favor of the war.

Contrast that to the situation today, when polls show Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to involvement [1] and even some prominent Republican legislators (Gaetz, IIRC) were against the war. This is the Trump show: it's motivated by his ego and hopium. He's more erratic than ever. Historically, American presidents almost never started a major war without popular support (Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were all popular when they started, and I think Libya and Kosovo were too). I can't even think of a case where the country was dragged into a war that was opposed 60% to 16% in favor. I would be very interested to hear if there ever was one.

1: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/19/israel-iran-war-americans-p...

alephnerd · 5h ago
We don't need a second North Korea. Nor do we want to normalize every country starting a nuclear program.

Air strikes do not constitute boots on the ground, and the rules based norms around "you break it, you own it" ended with the last flight from Kabul. Most likely, we will conduct bombing raids, but take no part in nation building.

Ironically, South Korea wanted to do this to North Korea in 2003 (edit: 1993-94), but the Bush (edit: Clinton) administration pushed back because they were concentrating on Iraq and Afghanistan (edit: Yugoslavia).

Edit 1:

Nuclear weapons ALONE do not act as a deterrent anymore. Most nuclear countries have second/third strike capabilities and nuclear triad capabilities.

This is something that Iran has been working on for decades with a fairly robust ballistics and cruise missile program, and attempts at building a domestic nuclear submarine program.

More critically, just about every regional power in the Middle East has been investing in similar capabilities in case an Iran breakout happens. Going from 1 additonal country with nuclear weapons to 3-4 leads to a cascading domino effect (a nuclear Iran means a nuclear Saudi means a nuclear Turkiye means a nuclear Egypt...)

Edit 2:

For the downvoters - a country who's leadership explicitly chants "مرگ بر آمریکا" (Death to America) will unsurprisingly be viewed as a threat. Even our large rivals China or Russia do not normalize that kind of rhetoric.

netsharc · 4h ago
Re: Death to America.

Why don't you go die!

I don't mean it literally, read: https://www.mypersiancorner.com/death-to-america-explained-o...

Isn't it great when people take things out of context? In this case the context that wishing death is quite common in Iranian expressions of frustrations?

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yongjik · 5h ago
> Ironically, South Korea wanted to do this to North Korea in 2003

Where did you get that info? Makes no sense. South Korea has been consistently against starting another war with NK for at least 30 years or so, and besides, in 2003 South Korea was ruled by Kim Dae-Jung, famous for he's staunch support of improving relations with North Korea (he got a Nobel prize for that), and then Roh Moo-Hyun, from the same party and largely following Kim's foreign policy.

Thanks to them we had no wars, and of course now we have some young whippersnappers complaining about their "pro-NK" policies, saying we could have totally bombed NK, starting a war, and burning the peninsula to the ground, but at least North Korea won't have nukes today!

alephnerd · 5h ago
This was during the 2002-03 standoff during which the Yeongpyeong crisis occured.

It was after the Six Party Talks started in Aug 2003 that tensions started cooling down, before North Korea stunned the world in 2006.

Edit: though now that I think about it, I might be confusing this incident with the 1993-94 incident.

goatlover · 5h ago
While I understand not wanting countries like North Korea and Iran having nukes, it does protect them from invasion. We've seen what happened after Ukraine gave up their nukes. Less we forget, the Neocons of the Bush era wanted to remake the entire Middle East, not just Iraq and Afghanistan.
klipt · 3h ago
> nukes ... protect them from invasion

Israel has nukes and Hamas still invaded them.

Perhaps nukes protect you from invasion by rational actors, but I don't think they work on zealots.

jjk166 · 1h ago
And yet Israel does not denuclearize.

I certainly hope Iran's adversaries are rational actors.

alephnerd · 5h ago
Nukes alone do not prevent invasions.

You need to have delivery mechanisms like medium/long range ballistic missiles and second strike capabilities like SLCMs.

pfannkuchen · 1h ago
Which country with nukes has been invaded?
cempaka · 5h ago
Iran has been amply demonstrating their missile capabilities on the city of Tel Aviv for the past week.

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fzeroracer · 5h ago
The actions of the US and Israel are only proving an unfortunate trend of reality: The only deterrence against invasion from other countries is nuclear deterrence. We had a comprehensive deal with Iran to limit their nuclear program which Trump tore up in 2017 and which Israel is taking advantage of today.
porridgeraisin · 4h ago
It was torn up because they were lying about limiting their nuclear program.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mossad_infiltration_of_Irani...

shihab · 4h ago
The source is mossad, in case anyone gets fooled by the presence of a citation like me.
fzeroracer · 4h ago
Truly the source which is currently attempting to drag us into a war with Iran (and succeeding) is one to be trusted.
tehjoker · 5h ago
they are trying to cut off chinas oil, settle a score, and defend "greater israel"

they are also punishing iran for selling oil in their national currency

imperialism run amok

thinkcontext · 3h ago
If they wanted to disrupt China's oil wouldn't they have hit the main export terminal on Kharg Island? More generally, you don't think its likely that, regardless of what you think of Israel, their main motivation is they don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon?
tehjoker · 1h ago
> If they wanted to disrupt China's oil wouldn't they have hit the main export terminal on Kharg Island?

They aren't ready to directly start that war. They are trying to cut off the alliances first. Iran is a much smaller country (90M vs over a billion) with a lot of oil. Conveniently, Iran is already so dehumanized many Americans don't even recognize their rights to sovereignty.

> their main motivation is they don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon?

No. They have been trying to attack Iran since the revolution. It's similar to how Cuba embarrassed America and was never forgiven. If Iran wanted a weapon they'd have one. However, these attacks may force Iran to get one because countries with nuclear weapons appear to actually have sovereignty. Iran of course retains the possibility of making one, hoping that will have the same effect, but it appears that doesn't do it.

FridayoLeary · 4h ago
Oil for starters. Iran is the principle destabilising element in the middle east. By proxy they are participating in every conflict.

A nuclear iran would be completely intolerable, never mind that their regime might just be lunatic enough to use them.

Add that war is bad for the whole world.

So the us benefits that it protects her economic (and strategic) interests in the ME, which are real and extremely important, at the low cost of a limited air campaign.

There are further moral arguments, but i'm answering your question in the most direct way.

shihab · 4h ago
> Iran is the principle destabilising element in the middle east

Says Israel, the nation who tore up every single international laws, directly led campaign against UN and ICC, and whose right-wing (ones in power now) have been dreaming about a Greater Israel that threatens territorial integrity of like 10 different ME countries.

komali2 · 3h ago
It's seeming more and more like Israel, which propped up Hamas for example, is the principal destabilizing element in the region, and therefore really it's America, which spearheaded the original overthrow of Iranian democracy, alongside all its other middle eastern meddling for the last fifty years.
34679 · 4h ago
>Oil

If we want their oil, we can buy it like reasonable people do. What you're referring to is armed robbery.

>Iran is the principle destabilising element in the middle east

Is this a joke? The country that has not started any wars in its 300 year existence is not the "destabilizing element". That would be the country that has attacked Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran this year alone.

amluto · 3h ago
This is a strange comparison. Iran funds the Houthis, for example, who commit plenty of acts of war. And if you’re talking about starting wars, it’s worth noting that the present war in Gaza was started by Hamas. (I’m making no statement about whether the actions of either side or justified — I’m just pointing out that, in the present shooting war, the first shots were fired by Hamas, not Israel.)
FridayoLeary · 4h ago
You misunderstood me. I was talking about oil from the other gulf states. About 25 percent of the global oil supply goes through the straight of Hormuz. If iran were to disrupt that it would be disastrous for obvious reasons.

It's logical for the West to work to prevent that from being a possibility.

Iran/persia is far older then 300 years old. But again you somehow missed the point. I was talking about the current 40 year old regime, which while not having directly started any wars, have since the beginning declared their intentions to do so against America and Israel.

Really you are being deliberately obtuse.

andsoitis · 4h ago
Iran is the foremost sponsor of terrorism. They cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. No country that doesn't have a nuclear weapons program enriches uranium to 60%. Iran must be forced to come to a diplomatic negotiation.
shihab · 4h ago
I understand Iran is a headache to Israel, but did it have to be an enemy of USA? Isn't Iran's ambition, and its proxies, are all regional in nature? Have they ever attempted to harm an american living in America?

Israel has led an amazingly succesful campaign in presenting their problems (often arising out of their territorial ambitions) as a problem for the entire west.

Workaccount2 · 3h ago
Letting a death cult of religious zealots have nukes is an awful idea for the entire world.
ndiddy · 2h ago
Agreed, I also support the denuclearization of Israel.
yencabulator · 2h ago
And hopefully also keeping US religious nuts away from power.
wudangmonk · 3h ago
I agree which is why we need to get all these evangelical nuts actively trying to destroy the world so that Jesus come back out of power. No more death cults!.
goatlover · 2h ago
Religious zealots close to power also exist in Israel and the US.
const_cast · 18m ago
Israel definitely, but the US? Ehhh we have religious zealots but they're very tame as compared to zealots elsewhere. Not a lot of beheadings or executions going on here.
Ar-Curunir · 2h ago
So, Israel then?
nailer · 3h ago
Iran has killed a bunch of Americans, but typically not inside America.

Here’s a list, make of that what you want: https://x.com/chalavyishmael/status/1936107345093996775?s=46

andsoitis · 4h ago
The US has many economic and strategic interests in the Middle East.

The US is leaving many moments for Iran to come to the table to stop building towards nuclear power.

infamouscow · 3h ago
Khamenei is largely popular, even though the youth of Iran largely doesn't support the regime at a whole.

The root problem is the military is controlled by various factions of lunatics that want to see the end of Israel. It's these people ought to be mercilessly killed and I have no qualms once so ever advocating for brutal violence and (preferably) murder against them.

jjk166 · 1h ago
The Netherlands and Germany both produce highly enriched uranium despite not having nuclear weapons programs. 60% enrichment is insufficient for use in nuclear weapons. Iran's enriched uranium is its main bargaining chip in the diplomatic negotiations that the US walked away from. Iran was assessed by the US intelligence community to not be developing nuclear weapons.
logankeenan · 2h ago
Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorist groups. The key word being “state”. There are many well known terrorist groups that are not sponsored by Iran.
standardUser · 3h ago
Iran was willing to "come to a diplomatic negotiation" before Israel pre-emptively and unilaterally attacked. In fact, Iran and the US had found a diplomatic solution before Trump tore it up and promised to get a better deal (and then repeatedly failed to do so).
Buttons840 · 3h ago
> Iran is the foremost sponsor of terrorism.

How much does Iran spend sponsoring terrorism?

vFunct · 2h ago
Why must we stop Iran's terrorism? Their terrorism is directed at Israel, not America.

We can in fact just as easily support Iran's attacks against Israel. No reason to pick either side.

Right now the American people are coming to the consensus that Israel are the bad guys. Everybody under 50 already recognizes that, purely based on the thousands of Palestinian toddlers they see on Instagram that Israel kills and injures (the popular post today on Instagram is of a toddler with his legs severed). And the people over 50 will eventually die off, causing Israel's base of support to disappear.

There is no hope of Israel's permanent existence. We should remove our support for Israel immediately and prepare for the long term.

cloverich · 1h ago
You see the Gaza child missing limbs. They see the Israeli civilian massacred by Hamas. The quantity is far less relevant than the quality of Instagrams (and any other) algorithm.

What is the realistic path to Israels demise exactly? This country, which literally JUST voted in Trump knowing full well he would approve this approach, is going to change course that much?

I'll believe it when Texas finally goes blue, such ive been hearing about for 11 election cycles now.

fatbird · 3h ago
Iran did come to a diplomatic solution: the JCPOA [0]. Unfortunately, it was Obama who did it, so Trump tore it up in his first term. Why would Iran believe that any diplomatic outcome is meaningful?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...

cmurf · 5h ago
https://bsky.app/profile/brma64.bsky.social/post/3ls5ntn5bns...

It could be worse.

But this is still bad, may be illegal, and isn't over yet. We don't actually know what they hit, if those sites were empty, and what's happened to ~1/2 ton of highly-enriched uranium or the regime's ability to produce more.

reassess_blind · 4h ago
Illegal? I don’t think that factors into any decision made here.
andrewinardeer · 5h ago
I wonder if Iran will now activate the sleeper cells they have in the US?
blobbers · 2h ago
Is it safe to blow up a nuclear plant? Doesn't that cause bad things to spread?
coliveira · 2h ago
Yes, but who said that Trump cares about any consequences of his actions?
blobbers · 1h ago
It sounds like this stuff is underground sound so maybe it doesn't contaminate everything?
econ · 1h ago
We have all this technology but you can't get a decent overview of any conflict. There is liveuamap which seems to have data and certainly is better than any other website I know of but the ui is a horrific mess.

I think it is important for the people of the world to get an idea how things are unfolding.

It should be an animation of the exchanges both verbally and physically. Have a complete set of news sources for each action.

The BBC is not something you can trust to report on anything. I can't even see a date with the article? Pictures of the situation room??? Trump's name written in gold??What a waste of my time.

Games from the 90's provide better visualizations than anything online today.

mrkeen · 1h ago
It's not in governments' interests to allow their citizens information without taking the opportunity to spin it first.
mrs6969 · 3h ago
So russia can not attack a nuclear facility in ukraine, but us can in iran ? What am I missing ?
jiggawatts · 9m ago
a) Russia plans to conquer Ukraine and use its resources. Nuclear power plants are very expensive and critical to industry. Russia wants to capture these for their own use, not blow them up and irradiate the countryside that they wish to be a part of their own country!

b) Active reactors contain very "hot" decay products that are very bad for your health if atomised by an explosion and spread around. Chernobyl is the prototypical example of this. Enriched Uranium is less radioactive than natural Uranium, that's the point! Natural Uranium would "trigger itself" prematurely due to its constant background decay radiation.

fastball · 1h ago
What is to stop Iran from putting their next enrichment facility deep underground in the middle of Tehran?

Seems even Israel might be more hesitant to target it at that point.

nicce · 1h ago
Likely the reason to bomb Iran now in the first hand was internal politics of Israel. Controlling party was losing votes. Now, few bombs and problem solved.