This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.
linearithmic · 2d ago
I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.
NunoSempere · 2d ago
I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.
linearithmic · 2d ago
Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
AnimalMuppet · 2d ago
The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know.
It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.
NunoSempere · 2d ago
> not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild
It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.
> months to years before they're operation again
Good point!