> The proposed plan would grant Musk up to 12% of Tesla's stock, worth about $1.03 trillion if the company hits its target market value of $8.6 trillion. The plan requires boosting Tesla's valuation nearly eightfold, or about $7.5 trillion, over the next decade.
Obviously no chance in hell that Tesla hits that market cap legitimately just based on the performance of the past four years.
However, if the administration succeeds in killing the Fed’s independence and sending inflation to the moon, he might get that payday early! It will in be Zimbabwe dollars, but he will get that trillionaire title (along with many others).
forgotoldacc · 1h ago
Stocks and company value haven't been tied to reality in years. Tesla could completely cease production and say they're getting in the puppy kicking industry and their stock prices wouldn't fall a bit. They might even skyrocket.
DoesntMatter22 · 11m ago
The company still is making good profit, has low debt and has possible revolutionary products ahead. You may hate them but they are still doing well
oarla · 1h ago
When AAPL and NVDA breached the 3T mark I was convinced that they’ve hit a ceiling. But, time has shown that I was wrong. I think any valuation is possible now.
ed · 3m ago
Insightful comment because this is the exact psychology that leads to bubbles!
rawgabbit · 16m ago
Get DOGE to dismantle all federal agencies including Medicare, IRS, and Social Security. Then contract out those same functions to Tesla in the name of efficiency?
cluckindan · 1h ago
Well, now that the US has a War Department, and its Secretary of War Hegseth is publicly stating they are not going to defend but attack, one would assume US troops are going to be doing some pilfering in South America.
Again.
rKarpinski · 8m ago
> Well, now that the US has a War Department
That was the department's name for 150 years.. until doublespeak became popular in the 1940's
testbjjl · 1h ago
I think he said something along the lines of bringing back the “warrior ethos,” and the US has been losing since Vietnam. I have no idea what he’s talking about, but can’t imagine anyone having voted for this and related policies when they talked about bringing down the price of eggs.
runsWphotons · 37m ago
I think whatever the surveys said, the egg prices/inflation actually had little to do with Trump victory and the left shouldn't be misled by this. People vote now for emotional reasons, reasons of identity, and these rational reasons are mostly cover--something you tell a pollster but not the real truth. Take note of anyone you know who gave this reason and see what they say about 6 months of manufacturing decline, slowing job growth, or about the inevitable inflation from tariffs...I bet most defend it in some way.
The right is now split into a faction that rejects foreign interventions and wants to withdraw, if not total isolationist then something in that direction, and another faction. At the elite level this other faction is ascendant. The lesson they have drawn from US military failures from Vietnam to GWOT is different from the former faction. In their view the problem is that we were not aggressive enough, we were too constrained by overly legalistic and conservative rules of engagement and various ideological goals which polluted the prosecution of the wars and prevented us from "winning". They DO want a more cruel, more aggressive force posture. They admire and defend Israel in large part because they see it as a model of a force which really believes in "winning". A substantial portion of the voter base is attracted to this, enthused by the prospect of aggressive campaigns in Latin America with relaxed rules of engagement, and sees the renaming to Department of War as a "based" declaration of this doctrine. The country is moving more in this direction and the more isolationist (kind of "Buchananite") wing is getting purged again, but with some concessions made to them.
I am not sure the left has any answer to this right now because it has discredited itself with so many, especially losing a lot of younger men (those under 21 heavily favor Republicans), and generally the country may simply be moving in this direction. I think be clear eyed what you are facing.
mullingitover · 11m ago
The problem with trying to read things into the results of the 2024 election is that they’re totally in line with a global thrashing of incumbents that occurred that year. Incumbents in the US actually did better than the average.
runsWphotons · 3m ago
Humbly, I think this thinking is part of the problem. The incumbents were crushed because they mostly all copied each other and are seen as part of the same system. There are Western parties which have behaved differently and were not crushed. It wasn't just a meteorological event.
timeon · 13m ago
Everyone knows that it was not really about the eggs. I think in this thread it was used as sarcasm.
runsWphotons · 6m ago
Many actually do not seem to know this, especially in the political/think tank class. There are highly placed Democratic officials who blame inflation and point to this research.
dataviz1000 · 52m ago
I'm in South America. I see electric BYD everywhere and not a single Tesla. The same in SEA. Your theory could explain something. Force 'em all to purchase Tesla instead of BYD.
adastra22 · 1h ago
> Well, now that the US has a War Department
I thought you were joking. Wtf.
defrost · 4m ago
Via a POTUS flourish that has no legality ..
(Congress established and must approve any DoD changes)
Such actions are increasingly common and remain effectively unchallenged, stalled all the way to a compliant SCOTUS that falls in line rather than be ignored should they rule against.
treetalker · 1h ago
Besides attacking litter and underbrush in the capital?
mrandish · 1h ago
Hopefully this will provide sufficient incentive for Elon to focus more on business and less on social media, politics and culture war distractions.
lantry · 1m ago
If billions weren't enough, why should we expect a trillion to work?
testbjjl · 1h ago
Doesn’t he have to grow market cap 8x in 10 years? I can’t imagine how stiff the competition will be over the next decade.
throwawaylaptop · 1h ago
If he gets that robot in every home or office... It won't be THAT hard.
lemming · 17m ago
I hear it's happening next year.
standardUser · 44m ago
They only promise 1 million robots, so no problem! The crazy thing is they're still betting on robocars (10 million subscriptions) despite still not having sold a single fully autonomous ride.
xnx · 20m ago
Just need to make some memecoin that can only be farmed on the cybertruck processor.
dabinat · 1h ago
What makes Tesla better-equipped to deliver on autonomy than other companies? The argument with FSD was that Tesla had cars on the road gathering real-world data and that their solution was cheaper and more scalable (not that either of these actually helped them in the end). What is the argument for robotics?
addaon · 21m ago
> What makes Tesla better-equipped to deliver on autonomy than other companies?
A willingness to ship at a much lower level of technical readiness and safety, and a reasonable chance of achieving enough regulatory capture to be allowed to do so.
chillingeffect · 2h ago
How are they not noticing cheaper, better cars, pending lawsuits, toyota's invention of aluminum batteries making lithium obsolete, end of early mover advantage, and history of underdelivering?
nomel · 1h ago
I think you misunderstand. There's no reason to think they're not aware. It's more: "If you do this very difficult, nearly impossible thing (given the current situation), we'll give you a ridiculous amount of money for the miracle, because you'll make us rich in the process".
WaltPurvis · 1h ago
I believe Tesla bulls are banking on robots, robo-taxis, and other products. Surely nobody believes Tesla's consumer car business is poised to grow. (Given the history of under-delivering, etc., I wouldn't bet on Tesla dominating robotics or any other field, but as I understand it, this incentive package has no particular downside for shareholders.)
0cf8612b2e1e · 1h ago
I have not kept up- what does their industrial battery segment look like? That seemed like a market with huge growth potential, but maybe batteries are too commoditized now. Plus, supporting the renewable woke agenda.
blargey · 1h ago
Since it's apparently all denominated in stock, and vesting is conditional on multiplying the stock price 7.5x over the next decade*, every misgiving over the current valuation should make this package all the more worth it to shareholders (who the board is supposed to represent).
*or at least the sort of operational milestones that make for the kind of pithy headlines that prop up the stock price
chmod775 · 56m ago
Investors who bought an expensive hype stock have now realized it's a giant bubble that will burst the moment they start selling their considerable shares.
Their only option is to desperately ride on, hoping to stay ahead of the tide until they find some higher ground. Who knows: dangling a giant carrot in front of their mule might help?
ares623 · 52m ago
Yeah this feels like a way to entice current investors into not pulling out.
"Look, you'll miss out on trillions if you pull out now! Please, we're so close!"
toofy · 26m ago
yep, this is it exactly.
“please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble”
mcculley · 1h ago
Would Musk become a full-time CEO in exchange for this compensation package?
malfist · 48m ago
Of course not. He'd lose his diablo 4 ladder rank
epolanski · 30m ago
Didn't he lie about how good he was at diablo as well?
throwmeaway222 · 2h ago
It is likely worth it - the Tesla robot will be the most advanced consumer grade product ever made. Shocked but not shocked that Apple didn't beat them to it (not shocked because Cook was just using Jobs playbook that only lasted for so long)
SwellJoe · 2h ago
This has to be a bit. You can't possibly believe Musk's fantasies after a couple decades of hilarious (and occasionally dangerous) lies.
xNeil · 51m ago
>You can't possibly believe Musk's fantasies after a couple decades of hilarious (and occasionally dangerous) lies.
Eh, betting against Musk generally seems to be a losing proposition. Starlink alone would have given me faith in his abilities, what Tesla's done with Models 3 and Y and SpaceX with Falcon 9 gives me all the more reason to believe him. Yes, despite the absurd timelines, which I'm generally okay with. (Not OP)
freerobby · 27m ago
People never learn. The haters always think this time will be different.
poniko · 2h ago
How about the myriad of other companies that produce Robots? Like Figure and a large number of Chinese outlets? Tesla is not the winner in electric cars why would they be better at robots. My guess is low cost robots from China will be everywhere..
xNeil · 55m ago
>...Tesla is not the winner in electric cars
With all due respect, what in the world are you on about?
breve · 17m ago
Musk has done a lot of brand damage to Tesla.
Tesla's sales are down, revenue is down, profit is down, and Tesla continues to lose EV market share.
poniko · 43m ago
.. ever heard of BYD? BMW just released the first car on their new platform that is better then Teslas in pretty much every way .. Musk has ruined Tesla with bets on wrong cars i.e Cybertruck instead of pushing price and volume.
igor47 · 1h ago
Except the US. Because tariffs.
bdangubic · 1h ago
Tesla robot will be the most advanced consumer grade product ever made.
There is a much better chance of me fathering a child with Madonna than this
webdevver · 28m ago
its entirely possible. clearly we have all the input signals that we need in electronic form:
so now the question is: how do we convert this bag of signals into mimicking a human. this question has been asked for text already, and the answer is LLMs which can, at the very least, mimick humans pretty well.
if a humanoid can be made to mimick a cook, or a cleaner, or manual labor, be able to navigate human geometry (stairs, ramps, etc.) that is already huge.
i agree that it would be the most advanced consumer grade product - the only thing that might beat it, is a domestic nuclear reactor.
bgwalter · 6m ago
It has to handle dirt, water, soap, five-year olds who pour sugar water over the robotic hands etc.
So far I've only seen these things in clean and dry environments, where they fold dry laundry, badly.
It looks like an absolute and expensive maintenance nightmare. Also, I'd worry about prompt injection or malfunction. Better carry a axe at all times:
Obviously no chance in hell that Tesla hits that market cap legitimately just based on the performance of the past four years.
However, if the administration succeeds in killing the Fed’s independence and sending inflation to the moon, he might get that payday early! It will in be Zimbabwe dollars, but he will get that trillionaire title (along with many others).
Again.
That was the department's name for 150 years.. until doublespeak became popular in the 1940's
The right is now split into a faction that rejects foreign interventions and wants to withdraw, if not total isolationist then something in that direction, and another faction. At the elite level this other faction is ascendant. The lesson they have drawn from US military failures from Vietnam to GWOT is different from the former faction. In their view the problem is that we were not aggressive enough, we were too constrained by overly legalistic and conservative rules of engagement and various ideological goals which polluted the prosecution of the wars and prevented us from "winning". They DO want a more cruel, more aggressive force posture. They admire and defend Israel in large part because they see it as a model of a force which really believes in "winning". A substantial portion of the voter base is attracted to this, enthused by the prospect of aggressive campaigns in Latin America with relaxed rules of engagement, and sees the renaming to Department of War as a "based" declaration of this doctrine. The country is moving more in this direction and the more isolationist (kind of "Buchananite") wing is getting purged again, but with some concessions made to them.
I am not sure the left has any answer to this right now because it has discredited itself with so many, especially losing a lot of younger men (those under 21 heavily favor Republicans), and generally the country may simply be moving in this direction. I think be clear eyed what you are facing.
I thought you were joking. Wtf.
(Congress established and must approve any DoD changes)
Such actions are increasingly common and remain effectively unchallenged, stalled all the way to a compliant SCOTUS that falls in line rather than be ignored should they rule against.
A willingness to ship at a much lower level of technical readiness and safety, and a reasonable chance of achieving enough regulatory capture to be allowed to do so.
*or at least the sort of operational milestones that make for the kind of pithy headlines that prop up the stock price
Their only option is to desperately ride on, hoping to stay ahead of the tide until they find some higher ground. Who knows: dangling a giant carrot in front of their mule might help?
"Look, you'll miss out on trillions if you pull out now! Please, we're so close!"
“please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble”
Eh, betting against Musk generally seems to be a losing proposition. Starlink alone would have given me faith in his abilities, what Tesla's done with Models 3 and Y and SpaceX with Falcon 9 gives me all the more reason to believe him. Yes, despite the absurd timelines, which I'm generally okay with. (Not OP)
With all due respect, what in the world are you on about?
Tesla's sales are down, revenue is down, profit is down, and Tesla continues to lose EV market share.
There is a much better chance of me fathering a child with Madonna than this
inertia (IMU), vision (CCD), skin pressure (not sure?), absolute offset/absolute rotation (optical encoders)
so now the question is: how do we convert this bag of signals into mimicking a human. this question has been asked for text already, and the answer is LLMs which can, at the very least, mimick humans pretty well.
if a humanoid can be made to mimick a cook, or a cleaner, or manual labor, be able to navigate human geometry (stairs, ramps, etc.) that is already huge.
i agree that it would be the most advanced consumer grade product - the only thing that might beat it, is a domestic nuclear reactor.
So far I've only seen these things in clean and dry environments, where they fold dry laundry, badly.
It looks like an absolute and expensive maintenance nightmare. Also, I'd worry about prompt injection or malfunction. Better carry a axe at all times:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/24/chess-robot-gr...