All of them no. Some of them almost certainly. Majority, we don't know yet.
kittikitti · 3h ago
I see this being propagated, shared, and discussed across many platforms but can't find a direct quote or detailed source.
taylodl · 7h ago
Bill Gates also famously said we'd never need more than 640K RAM! /s
Personally, my timeline horizon for technology planning is five years. I've already said that I see AI "replacing" 5% to 10% of developers during that time period via improved developer productivity. People are already estimating that number at 3% with the technology we have right now, today.
Past 5 years is anyone's guess. If we don't develop AGI then we probably won't make much more productivity gains. As such my take on this is Bill Gates is saying we won't have AGI for the next 100 years. I have no means of verifying that statement - but I don't see it happening within five years.
Personally, my timeline horizon for technology planning is five years. I've already said that I see AI "replacing" 5% to 10% of developers during that time period via improved developer productivity. People are already estimating that number at 3% with the technology we have right now, today.
Past 5 years is anyone's guess. If we don't develop AGI then we probably won't make much more productivity gains. As such my take on this is Bill Gates is saying we won't have AGI for the next 100 years. I have no means of verifying that statement - but I don't see it happening within five years.