Tell HN: A data-driven look at a failed HN account

2 attogram 2 9/1/2025, 11:45:27 AM
I crunched the data to figure out why my old HN account was a failure:

Old Account:

  Day 0: Account Created in mid 2017 | 0 karma
  Day 0: Submission 1: Show HN - live - 2 points - 3 comments | 2 karma
  Day 0: Submission 2: Show HN - live - 2 points | 4 karma
  Day 0: Comment 1: replied to post on Submission 2 | 4 karma
  Day 11: Submission 3: Show HN - [flagged] - [dead] - 1 point - 1 comment | 3 karma
  Day 11: Submission 4: Show HN - live - 2 points - 1 comment | 5 karma
  Day 11: Comment 2: replied to post on Submission 3 | 4 karma
  Day 11: Comment 3: replied to post on Submission 4 | 3 karma
  Day 12: Submission 5: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 13: Submission 6: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 2584: Submission 7: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 2942: Submission 8: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
Notes:

- Day 11: the [flagged] submission basically killed the account

- Pattern of using HN as a marketing/pr outlet with minimal community engagement

- Turn on showdead in your user settings, it's a great help in analyzing failures

This new Account:

  Day 3019: Account Created | 1 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 1: on post | 2 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 2: on post | 3 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 3: on post | 4 karma
  Day 3020: Comment 4: on post | 5 karma
  Day 3020: Comment 5: on post | 6 karma
  Day 3021: Comment 6: on post | 7 karma
  Day 3021: Comment 7: on post | 8 karma
  Day 3022: Comment 8: on post | 9 karma
  Day 3022: Comment 9: on post | 10 karma
  Day 3023: Comment 10: on post | 12 karma
  Day 3023: Comment 11: on post | 14 karma
  Day 3024: Comment 12: on post | 16 karma
  Day 3024: Comment 13: on post | 18 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 14: on post | 20 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 15: on post | 22 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 16: on post | 24 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 17: on post | 26 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 18: on post | 28 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 19: on post | 30 karma
  Day 3025: Submission 1: This post | 30 karma
The fix wasn't a new account, but a new strategy: listen first.

Comments (2)

pwg · 3h ago
You've discovered why this sentence is in the HN guidelines:

Please don't use HN primarily for promotion. It's ok to post your own stuff part of the time, but the primary use of the site should be for curiosity.

attogram · 1h ago
And more data:

  METRIC                     OLD ACCOUNT              NEW ACCOUNT
  ---                        ---                      ---
  Submission Velocity        4/3 = 1.333/day          1/6 = 0.167/day
  Comment Velocity           3/2942 = 0.00102/day     19/6 = 3.167/day
  Karma Efficiency           3/11 = 27.27%            30/20 = 150.00%
  Submission Mortality       7/8 = 87.50%             0/1 = 0.00%
  Comment Mortality          0/3 = 0.00%              0/19 = 0.00%
  Active Lifespan            13 days                  6 days
  Total Lifespan             2942 days                6 days
  Karma/Submission           3/8 = 0.375              30/1 = 30.000
  Karma/Comment              3/3 = 1.000              30/19 = 1.579
  Engagement Intensity       11/13 = 0.846/day        30/6 = 5.000/day
  Karma Gain Rate            3/2942 = 0.00102/day     29/6 = 4.833/day
  Comment/Submission Ratio   3/8 = 0.375              19/1 = 19.000
  Active Days Ratio          13/2942 = 0.00442        6/6 = 1.00000
  Karma Sustainability       3/11 = 27.27%            30/19 = 157.89%
  Content Survival Rate      4/19 = 21.05%            20/20 = 100.00%
  Upvoted Comments Ratio     3/3 = 100.00%            19/19 = 100.00%
  Karma Distribution         (low)                    (medium)
  Reply-to-Comment Ratio     0/3 = 0.00%              2/19 = 10.53%
  Peak Engagement            N/A                      14:00-16:00 UTC
  Flag-to-Karma Correlation  -0.92 (strong negative)  0.00 (no correlation)
  Topic Consistency          0.33 (low)               0.82 (high)
  User Retention             0.44%                    100.00%
  Cross-Thread Engagement    1.00 (low)               3.40 (high)
FORMULAS:

  Submission Velocity = total_submissions / account_age_days
  Comment Velocity = total_comments / account_age_days
  Karma Efficiency = (final_karma / sum_raw_points) x 100
  Submission Mortality = (dead_submissions / total_submissions) x 100
  Comment Mortality = (dead_comments / total_comments) x 100
  Active Lifespan = last_activity_day - first_activity_day
  Total Lifespan = last_check_day - creation_day
  Karma/Submission = final_karma / total_submissions
  Karma/Comment = final_karma / total_comments
  Engagement Intensity = total_karma_gained / active_days
  Karma Gain Rate = (final_karma - start_karma) / total_days
  Comment/Submission Ratio = total_comments / total_submissions
  Active Days Ratio = active_days / total_days
  Karma Sustainability = final_karma / total_raw_points x 100
  Content Survival Rate = living_content / total_content x 100
  Upvoted Comments Ratio = upvoted_comments / total_comments x 100
  Karma Distribution = variance(karma_per_comment)
  Reply-to-Comment Ratio = replied_comments / total_comments x 100
  Peak Engagement = hours_with_most_activity
  Flag-to-Karma Correlation = correlation(flags -karma_change)
  Topic Consistency = topic_similarity_score across comments
  User Retention = active_days / total_days x 100
  Cross-Thread Engagement = avg_comments_per_thread
Fun with data!