The End of SaaS?
I think HN is good litmus test as a lot of people here are at least somewhat technical.
I'd describe myself as a decent mid-level-ish swe, currently building my own startup and I have 0 desire nor inclination to replace any of the software I currently pay for either personally or through my startup. I'm happy to outsource all of that thinking/work to someone else.
I'm also unconvinced by the argument that the pricing comes waaay down because it's so much faster/cheaper/easier to write software now - because while the delivery mechanism is new, cheap software development has been available for a long time. I know founders who paid someone in Pakistan/India ~$1k to build their platform. (Yes, it went exactly how you'd think it would) and I've seen non-technical founders who "vibe code" have a similar experience.
Is this all hot air? When I see this "end of Saas" being touted and then look at my experience using these tools + building my own startup and interacting with customers.. I just don't see any of our customers even coming to close to considering "building it themselves" or even asking why our product doesn't cost like 5 bucks a month.
I'm looking for people who back the "end of SaaS" position and I want to know what it is you're seeing on the ground. What tools are being replaced and how?
ime high quality software is still hard and it takes quite a lot thought, time, good design and testing (before you even deploy it!) - "generating" the code is often not the bottleneck and the idea that I'm going to go and whip up my own postmark/S3/G-suite/CRM just seems crazy to me.
I asked Copilot to tell me how to clear out a a RabbitMQ queue and it gave me a great answer. I asked it to write me a Python script that solves Tower of Hanoi, same thing.
In both cases it is a well-defined task and I don’t care about how it is done.
Applications software is different. If you farm out a task to offshore developers you are either going to have to document every. little. detail. (India) or get a spike of work which might get between 0-40% of the way there and come back with detailed feedback through several cycles (China)
Maybe an A.I. coder could work with you intensively to get your needs met, but it’s not going to be “implement user authentication” and then it is done unless your definition of done is launching and getting a call the next night that somebody logged in without a password.
Even so, AI does make people more productive and it will shift buy vs build discussions towards build.
So... AI accelerates the demise of stupid businesses and reinforces the value proposition of irreplaceable services. As a whole I would say that is a negative to a market that relies on "disruption" economics to stay afloat and continue raising capital.