While em dashes might be extremely prevalent in AI generated text, if you plug in your priors, P(AI|em) is likely much smaller than you think it is.
After updating my false alarm rate, P(AI|em) now = 0.016. Before it was 0.09. People are simply over-updating without actually understanding how conditional probabilities work.
After updating my false alarm rate, P(AI|em) now = 0.016. Before it was 0.09. People are simply over-updating without actually understanding how conditional probabilities work.