This must be a video from an alternate universe slipping through
delichon · 22h ago
Peter Zeihan also announced many times, as an established fact, that Trump would not, could not be re-elected. I have less of a problem with his mistaken predictions than with his complete confidence in them.
incomingpain · 21h ago
The USA's trade war with China is putting an end to trade with china.
The EU similarly have enacted policies to replace or eliminate every export from China.
Whereas China is heavily dependent on this trade continuing at 2019 levels.
Since that's not going to happen, China's population will have to reduce greatly. Current estimates is that China will drop from 1.4 billion to about 600 million by 2100. These estimates are just looking at set in stone patterns, not accounting for pandemics or wars. Obviously they can speed up the decline by going to war.
China needs about 4-5 million/year of immigrants to fix the problem. Where are they getting these people? What's the incentive to go?
China does have some new birthing strategies, marriage leave is 25 days? maternity leave is 150 days? $50,000 baby bonuses. Criminalized any media that have a negative view of having a family. Men can get essentially month's rent by donating good sperm. Women can get ivf trivially? major restrictions on abortions that would make pro life republicans blush with envy.
They've had some limited success in improving this situation; but $ is the limiter and that's going to be a struggle given the above problem.
The EU similarly have enacted policies to replace or eliminate every export from China.
Whereas China is heavily dependent on this trade continuing at 2019 levels.
Since that's not going to happen, China's population will have to reduce greatly. Current estimates is that China will drop from 1.4 billion to about 600 million by 2100. These estimates are just looking at set in stone patterns, not accounting for pandemics or wars. Obviously they can speed up the decline by going to war.
China needs about 4-5 million/year of immigrants to fix the problem. Where are they getting these people? What's the incentive to go?
China does have some new birthing strategies, marriage leave is 25 days? maternity leave is 150 days? $50,000 baby bonuses. Criminalized any media that have a negative view of having a family. Men can get essentially month's rent by donating good sperm. Women can get ivf trivially? major restrictions on abortions that would make pro life republicans blush with envy.
They've had some limited success in improving this situation; but $ is the limiter and that's going to be a struggle given the above problem.