Ask HN: Do you think society will collapse within 10 years?
6wand3r208/1/2025, 3:02:21 PM
Comments (20)
harryquach · 8h ago
If European society survived the Black Plague we will be fine. Imagine living in a time where an unknown virus kills half of the population. Half of everyone you know is gone. This is only one of countless examples throughout history.
No doubt today we have unique challenges but I am optimistic we will overcome and thrive. Like a poster mentioned above, perhaps its time to log off and go for a walk.
Tadpole9181 · 1m ago
I'm sorry, European society didn't survive the black plague if the term "survive" means anything but avoiding utter obliteration.
Entire cities were ravaged and collapsed - half of the entire population died not only from the disease but the ensuring famine resulting from supply chain collapse. Cultures were erased in their entirety, wars were started that lasted an entire lifetime, it defined the socioeconomic landscape of the world that came after. It's one of the reasons the Mongol Empire collapsed, religion took a stronger hold, and peasantry rose!
Now we live in a much different world. Tens of millions in a single city, utterly reliant on importants. Farming that requires fertilizer imports and machines.
It wouldn't be extinction, but a similar event would be utterly horrific and absolutely qualify as a collapse of society.
Do I think society will collapse on 10 years? No, absolutely not. But to point to the black death and say it didn't collapse society is utterly ridiculous.
mrpound · 9h ago
If you believe this sort of thing you spend far too much time online and not nearly enough time existing or participating in society.
wand3r · 9h ago
I am speaking more about American society. 60+ percent of people don't own homes or meaningful stock portfolios, they have almost no participation or skin in the game. The current administration is doing some horrible stuff (IMO), the previous administration did nothing and there is absolutely no vision. AI is going to take away all the jobs and opportunities. I really don't think this is a symptom of being "always online". The government is putting people in black bags, corruption is extremely blatant, trust in everything is at an all time low.
To turn this around on you, if you think society is doing well and has almost no chance of collapse you probably have a net worth/assets of at least 1 million dollars.
SvenL · 8h ago
Yes, if people think that society is defined by people owning houses and stock, then yes, society might be already collapsed. But I think this is not really what society is about.
To this extend, if AI takes all the jobs, people would be able to still be alive. Call me sci-fi romantic, but this is basically Star Trek. And they have still a society where everybody can pursue their interests regardless of income because computer and robots taking care of basic needs.
I think society has nothing to do with money, sharing and caring is more important. And every individual in a society can contribute to this, regardless of wealth.
legitster · 9h ago
I think you have those number backwards - home ownership and stock ownership are both over 60%.
Even so, the housing market problem is largely a modern one - we went from a society where the majority of homes were multi-generational to one where homes are nuclear. So per capita, the demand for homes has skyrocketed. But also as baby boomers are retiring and shedding assets, I would anticipate this situation could improve itself in 10-20 years.
The administration is doing some pretty horrible stuff by modern first world standards, but is not actually out of alignment with how politics existed before the Cold War. We'll probably witness the end of Pax Americana, but society can continue to exist even in illiberal times where war and violence are more common.
wand3r · 8h ago
Yes, sorry I misremembered. That was under 35. Its around 50% for people under 45. I am just pointed out the trends. I am not even sure what I mean by collapse, but maybe some sort of revolution or war. Most of society does not believe in the american dream, does not believe hard work is enough to succeed, we are seeing crazy amounts of inflation, government services are being cut, housing is WAY outpacing inflation. It's dangerous to have a society with 18-30 year old males unemployed, single and completely disillusioned. AI will almost certainly completely destroy the job market. What will happen in the next 10 years? Certainly something most of society would consider horrible, but is that a "collapse"?
Jtsummers · 8h ago
> we are seeing crazy amounts of inflation
We had two bad years, 2021 and 2022, and then it's declined. It's not stellar, it'd be nice if it were lower but it's not "crazy". In US history, the 1970s and 1980s were overall far worse, and if you look at other countries around the globe our worst isn't even that crazy.
If the US collapses with 3% inflation, then it wasn't the inflation that caused the collapse. Something else is fundamentally wrong with a society that can't be resilient against that.
mrpound · 7h ago
Do you really think the government should be responsible for creating meaning in peoples lives? Most people who are unemployed are so by CHOICE. There are far too many people out there wanting to "create content" for a living, i.e. play video games on stream or spread antisocial propaganda. It's a thoroughly useless occupation that imparts no economic value to society or edification to the people consuming said "content". This idea that AI is going to "destroy" the job market is just an excuse, a cop-out a rationalization of ones failure to invest time =or energy developing marketable skills because "there's no point"
sunscream89 · 9h ago
Society has already collapsed and we are on a slow roll to dubious decay.
You see, society to too big to fail. Even when core virtues (precepts) are invalidated (eroding competence and moral lawful claim), society as a collective organism eating and shitting to survive will just keep on going.
There may be upsets, though sudden and dramatic change are not how these things work (however they appear post dramatically).
Slow gradual decline is like erosion, looks fine one day, fifteen years later when you’re dealing with something else the foundation gives.
We won’t riot war and starve out, we will be dejected apathetic and morose while what we love in it all dwindles into an old song.
beardyw · 9h ago
Societies rarely collapse. They decay. If things are not getting better they are getting worse.
FrankWilhoit · 9h ago
Ten, I'll evade the question. Twenty, yes, no doubt.
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF · 2h ago
Well, I won’t ask for details about 10 but why so confident about 20?
AznHisoka · 9h ago
Hot take, but I don't care. There's not much I can do if it does collapse. I have emergency food, water, but it's not like I can do anything else if people start pillaging. In the meanwhile, I have far more things to worry about that i can control such as taking care about my family, making sure my finances are in order, am eating healthy, etc.
dcminter · 9h ago
Which society did you have in mind? But if you mean globally then definitely not.
wand3r · 9h ago
American Society but let's broaden it to the G7
dcminter · 6h ago
"Collapse" is a strong word and even narrowed to "American" society I'm not sure what you would count as collapse. I don't think it's impossible that America could lose it's economic advantage within 10 years, but is that the same as society collapsing?
Or do you just mean American democracy ? It's hard to tell where the various groups and institutions might draw their lines on that. But democracies aren't a law of nature, so perhaps.
Caveat: if someone presses the nuclear trigger all bets are off. I wouldn't rule that one out, but it seemed inevitable back in the 70s so here's to hoping.
PaulHoule · 9h ago
No
the_hoser · 9h ago
No
Ekaros · 8h ago
Nope.
The markets might collapse. And then stay stagnant. That is not see type of price growth we have seen. But whole society is not going anywhere.
No doubt today we have unique challenges but I am optimistic we will overcome and thrive. Like a poster mentioned above, perhaps its time to log off and go for a walk.
Entire cities were ravaged and collapsed - half of the entire population died not only from the disease but the ensuring famine resulting from supply chain collapse. Cultures were erased in their entirety, wars were started that lasted an entire lifetime, it defined the socioeconomic landscape of the world that came after. It's one of the reasons the Mongol Empire collapsed, religion took a stronger hold, and peasantry rose!
Now we live in a much different world. Tens of millions in a single city, utterly reliant on importants. Farming that requires fertilizer imports and machines.
It wouldn't be extinction, but a similar event would be utterly horrific and absolutely qualify as a collapse of society.
Do I think society will collapse on 10 years? No, absolutely not. But to point to the black death and say it didn't collapse society is utterly ridiculous.
To turn this around on you, if you think society is doing well and has almost no chance of collapse you probably have a net worth/assets of at least 1 million dollars.
To this extend, if AI takes all the jobs, people would be able to still be alive. Call me sci-fi romantic, but this is basically Star Trek. And they have still a society where everybody can pursue their interests regardless of income because computer and robots taking care of basic needs.
I think society has nothing to do with money, sharing and caring is more important. And every individual in a society can contribute to this, regardless of wealth.
Even so, the housing market problem is largely a modern one - we went from a society where the majority of homes were multi-generational to one where homes are nuclear. So per capita, the demand for homes has skyrocketed. But also as baby boomers are retiring and shedding assets, I would anticipate this situation could improve itself in 10-20 years.
The administration is doing some pretty horrible stuff by modern first world standards, but is not actually out of alignment with how politics existed before the Cold War. We'll probably witness the end of Pax Americana, but society can continue to exist even in illiberal times where war and violence are more common.
We had two bad years, 2021 and 2022, and then it's declined. It's not stellar, it'd be nice if it were lower but it's not "crazy". In US history, the 1970s and 1980s were overall far worse, and if you look at other countries around the globe our worst isn't even that crazy.
https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locat... - Argentina. That's crazy amounts of inflation, and that's not even the worst out there. Meanwhile, Argentinian society is overall doing alright.
If the US collapses with 3% inflation, then it wasn't the inflation that caused the collapse. Something else is fundamentally wrong with a society that can't be resilient against that.
You see, society to too big to fail. Even when core virtues (precepts) are invalidated (eroding competence and moral lawful claim), society as a collective organism eating and shitting to survive will just keep on going.
There may be upsets, though sudden and dramatic change are not how these things work (however they appear post dramatically).
Slow gradual decline is like erosion, looks fine one day, fifteen years later when you’re dealing with something else the foundation gives.
We won’t riot war and starve out, we will be dejected apathetic and morose while what we love in it all dwindles into an old song.
Or do you just mean American democracy ? It's hard to tell where the various groups and institutions might draw their lines on that. But democracies aren't a law of nature, so perhaps.
Caveat: if someone presses the nuclear trigger all bets are off. I wouldn't rule that one out, but it seemed inevitable back in the 70s so here's to hoping.
The markets might collapse. And then stay stagnant. That is not see type of price growth we have seen. But whole society is not going anywhere.