Does anybody have any optimistic hopes for the UK?
I've noticed a downwards trend in almost all manners of living here over the past 10 years, and can't really see what any government could do to change course.
barnabee · 1h ago
I am not convinced the stagnation or downward trend is either inevitable or irreversible.
The impact of the last 1–2 decades of policies and global/regional events may continue feeding through and making things worse (or at least stopping them getting much better) for some time. However, the fact that the change of government hasn’t magically fixed everything does not mean that it won’t eventually start to have a positive impact or that the direction of travel is one way. Equally, the new government is far from perfect and has made quite a few unforced errors alongside the positive changes, so success is far from guaranteed.
Of course, if people in general don’t start to believe it by the next election and we end up with a Reform government (or even more Tories given their current state), all bets are off.
traceroute66 · 26m ago
> Does anybody have any optimistic hopes for the UK?
Not post-Brexit, no.
With Brexit, the UK voted to cut itself off from its:
- nearest trading partner
- source of seasonal and low-paid workers
But it also chose to do so in the hardest possible manner thanks to Boris's "deal".
As a result:
- many businesses can't be bothered with the new paperwork that comes from being outside the zone
- many businesses struggle because the free-movement labour is no longer available, e.g. farmers need seasonal pickers, restaurants need seasonal front-of-house staff etc.
There was a hope that Labour would change this given all the noises they made during opposition. But sadly they seem to be doubling down and continuing to brown-nose Trump.
Farage also has a seat in parliament, both the major parties are terrified of him, and so they continue trying to out-Farage Farage at varying levels. Which is a terrifyingly dangerous game to play.
Then there's all the usual stories of decades of lack of investment in public services etc.
fidotron · 2h ago
I left the UK about 20 years ago, and whenever visiting the deterioration of basically everything is very noticeable.
It's very hard to shake the impression that what is left in the tech industry there is loosely what you may call defense related. It's as if it's returned to the 1970s.
sjw987 · 2h ago
Is it alright if I ask where you went? And how you were able to make that move?
fidotron · 1h ago
In Quebec in Canada. Because I was in games I was able to move with work, and eventually got PR and then citizenship.
Quebec has its own problems too, but the sense of pointlessness in the UK is something else.
SideburnsOfDoom · 2h ago
> It's very hard to shake the impression that what is left in the tech industry there is loosely what you may call defense related
In London city it's mostly finance related.
cedws · 2h ago
No. I’m planning to leave. British born and raised. Probably best to exit before they introduce a massive exit tax like Germany’s, at the rate the UK is losing wealthy people it’s inevitable.
barbazoo · 17m ago
Former German, left before the introduction of the Wegzugsbesteuerung (or maybe I just didn’t know) and I’m excited. Seems fair to tax I realized gains that were made while one was in the country. I’m in favor of wealth taxation so obviously this vibes with me. I hope more countries start tax wealth.
sjw987 · 2h ago
Is it alright to ask where you're planning on going?
cedws · 2h ago
Sure. I spent the last 6 months in Tokyo, needless to say it was great and I felt quite content there. I continued working for my London-based employer, which obviously means that I wasn’t fully integrating there and experienced all the pros without the cons. I couldn’t stay any longer than 6 months as the digital nomad visa isn’t extendable.
I’d like to find somewhere to settle down for longer, and I have a few countries on the cards for visiting. If that works out I’ll start moving my assets over. If I can’t find somewhere then I’ll probably do a rotation between Japan and some other country, other factors permitting.
Portugal seems like a good choice because of its digital nomad visa and after 5 years of living there I could apply for naturalisation and regain freedom of movement in the EU.
alephnerd · 1h ago
Japan is a great country, but has similar problems to the UK as well. Same with Portugal to a certain extent. The anti-immigrant far-right movement has become mainstream in Japan now as well with Kokumin, Ishin, Sanseito, Hoshuto, and far right factions of the LDP becoming mainstream.
Could a lot of a malaise just be "grass is greener on the other side" syndrome, or that you aren't as looped into Japanese political discourse the same way you might be in Anglophone countries?
I've seen a similar trend of trying to find greener grass amongst Japanese as well, though they tend to target South Korea, China, or ASEAN countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
cedws · 54m ago
I have followed Japanese politics a bit and the rising anti-foreigner sentiment is something I took into account when considering whether I should stay longer term. I disagree that Japan’s problems are on the same scale as the UK’s. Quality of life there is far higher. The safety made me feel much less anxious.
I think the grass is greener syndrome is something that happens when on a few weeks visit, but I was there for 6 months. I made a fairer evaluation and still felt like Japan was better for me.
Everyone values different things in their life. Japan is closely aligned with the things I value most. Respect, safety, convenience, cleanliness, and so on.
alephnerd · 36m ago
Yep! Makes sense. But like, if you are working remotely with a British employer, are you still drawing a London salary (£50-70k) instead of a Japanese salary (¥3M-6M)?
If you were earning ¥3-4M a year (roughly the average salary in Japan), would you feel the same about Japan?
Like, to me London is great, but I also know if I was working remotely in the UK or for my employer I could demand a £90k-150k salary and live in Chelsea or Belgravia, so I would be living my best life - but it's also not an "authentic" London experience.
That's why I see plenty of Japanese doing a similar thing - take a ¥4-5M salary and live in Shanghai, Bangkok, or HCMC.
As individuals, it makes sense for us for rationalize the arbitrage, but we can't deny we are also causing affordability issues as well.
I guess what I'm getting at is at the median, the vast majority of developed countries are facing the same issues, but at a micro-level, we can use currency arbitrages to give us a better life - but it's only exacerbating the problem.
FirmwareBurner · 2h ago
>I've noticed a downwards trend in almost all manners of living here over the past 10 years, and can't really see what any government could do to change course.
Everyone I talk to from several EU countries feels the same: today we're an a much lower point than 10 years ago. Hell, where I am now in Austria, the country is the only one in EU with a GDP decline compared to last year, and a stagnation like UK would actually be an improvement lol.
Salaries in general have barely grown since 10 years with inflation adjustments, but housing is up several times compared to 10 years ago. Those I know who bought houses around 2014 keep thanking their lucky star since they admit they wouldn't be able to purchase the same home at the value of today on their wages of today.
I think the situation in Canada is exactly the same or maybe even worse.
So nobody in the west that I know of, thinks the situation is better now than 10 years ago. UK is no different than the rest of the west but they have this feeling that they are.
alephnerd · 1h ago
> Salaries in general have barely grown since 10 years with inflation adjustments
I've previously opened offices within the EU, and this is one of the downsides (for you guys) of the single market - why should I pay "market rate" German salaries when I can hire someone in Cluj, Lodz, Brno, or Sofia in the €20k-40k range, and be given a €5k-20k per head tax holiday along with fairly low corporate taxes from these countries.
> I think the situation in Canada is exactly the same or maybe even worse.
Canada is also a resource economy, and they got hit by the commodity glut really badly over the past few years.
SideburnsOfDoom · 2h ago
> and can't really see what any government could do to change course.
Admit that Brexit was a terrible idea, and get close the the EU Again. Rejoining is not feasible for now, but alignment and free trade with our neighbours would have economic benefits.
A UK government won't do it, of course.
rdm_blackhole · 2h ago
I don't think Brexit alone is the reason for this trend. France and Germany are also doing rather poorly and they are still in the EU.
ZeroGravitas · 2h ago
Brexit probably has a measurable impact on them to.
No comments yet
SideburnsOfDoom · 2h ago
There's never a reason "alone", but this is a big contributor.
rdm_blackhole · 2h ago
Most of western Europe is affected: France, Germany are doing pretty poorly, Spain is doing a bit better and Greece as well but they got hammered 10 years ago during the Eurozone crisis so it's more like they are catching back up more than growing in real terms.
robertlagrant · 3h ago
Whatever the shape of the Laffer curve, we are well to the right of its peak in the UK.
I've noticed a downwards trend in almost all manners of living here over the past 10 years, and can't really see what any government could do to change course.
The impact of the last 1–2 decades of policies and global/regional events may continue feeding through and making things worse (or at least stopping them getting much better) for some time. However, the fact that the change of government hasn’t magically fixed everything does not mean that it won’t eventually start to have a positive impact or that the direction of travel is one way. Equally, the new government is far from perfect and has made quite a few unforced errors alongside the positive changes, so success is far from guaranteed.
Of course, if people in general don’t start to believe it by the next election and we end up with a Reform government (or even more Tories given their current state), all bets are off.
Not post-Brexit, no.
With Brexit, the UK voted to cut itself off from its:
But it also chose to do so in the hardest possible manner thanks to Boris's "deal".As a result:
There was a hope that Labour would change this given all the noises they made during opposition. But sadly they seem to be doubling down and continuing to brown-nose Trump.Farage also has a seat in parliament, both the major parties are terrified of him, and so they continue trying to out-Farage Farage at varying levels. Which is a terrifyingly dangerous game to play.
Then there's all the usual stories of decades of lack of investment in public services etc.
It's very hard to shake the impression that what is left in the tech industry there is loosely what you may call defense related. It's as if it's returned to the 1970s.
Quebec has its own problems too, but the sense of pointlessness in the UK is something else.
In London city it's mostly finance related.
Portugal seems like a good choice because of its digital nomad visa and after 5 years of living there I could apply for naturalisation and regain freedom of movement in the EU.
Could a lot of a malaise just be "grass is greener on the other side" syndrome, or that you aren't as looped into Japanese political discourse the same way you might be in Anglophone countries?
I've seen a similar trend of trying to find greener grass amongst Japanese as well, though they tend to target South Korea, China, or ASEAN countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
I think the grass is greener syndrome is something that happens when on a few weeks visit, but I was there for 6 months. I made a fairer evaluation and still felt like Japan was better for me.
Everyone values different things in their life. Japan is closely aligned with the things I value most. Respect, safety, convenience, cleanliness, and so on.
If you were earning ¥3-4M a year (roughly the average salary in Japan), would you feel the same about Japan?
Like, to me London is great, but I also know if I was working remotely in the UK or for my employer I could demand a £90k-150k salary and live in Chelsea or Belgravia, so I would be living my best life - but it's also not an "authentic" London experience.
That's why I see plenty of Japanese doing a similar thing - take a ¥4-5M salary and live in Shanghai, Bangkok, or HCMC.
As individuals, it makes sense for us for rationalize the arbitrage, but we can't deny we are also causing affordability issues as well.
I guess what I'm getting at is at the median, the vast majority of developed countries are facing the same issues, but at a micro-level, we can use currency arbitrages to give us a better life - but it's only exacerbating the problem.
Everyone I talk to from several EU countries feels the same: today we're an a much lower point than 10 years ago. Hell, where I am now in Austria, the country is the only one in EU with a GDP decline compared to last year, and a stagnation like UK would actually be an improvement lol.
Salaries in general have barely grown since 10 years with inflation adjustments, but housing is up several times compared to 10 years ago. Those I know who bought houses around 2014 keep thanking their lucky star since they admit they wouldn't be able to purchase the same home at the value of today on their wages of today.
I think the situation in Canada is exactly the same or maybe even worse.
So nobody in the west that I know of, thinks the situation is better now than 10 years ago. UK is no different than the rest of the west but they have this feeling that they are.
I've previously opened offices within the EU, and this is one of the downsides (for you guys) of the single market - why should I pay "market rate" German salaries when I can hire someone in Cluj, Lodz, Brno, or Sofia in the €20k-40k range, and be given a €5k-20k per head tax holiday along with fairly low corporate taxes from these countries.
> I think the situation in Canada is exactly the same or maybe even worse.
Canada is also a resource economy, and they got hit by the commodity glut really badly over the past few years.
Admit that Brexit was a terrible idea, and get close the the EU Again. Rejoining is not feasible for now, but alignment and free trade with our neighbours would have economic benefits.
A UK government won't do it, of course.
No comments yet