ChatGPT estimates hundreds or less "rogue developers" try to build the AGI?
3 adinhitlore 6 8/25/2025, 12:13:20 PM
It's not easy to get such data and chatgpt was basically echoing my guesses. Surely the Openai and meta try to do it but they're bigcaps, far from "single rogue devs". I was rather curious if chatgpt/grok will be willing to share how many people have asked AGI-dev building related questsion and grok kind of did so and it estimated its in the low tens. Assuming most such people would use LLMs even the more exotic ones, I'd say anywhere under 1000 people worldwide will be fair guess?
That should be your first clue.
The proposed final stage proving AGI is having a personal agent that does everything for you is what chatgpt just released.
I'm fairly confident anthropic and grok have agi internally. Im not as confident about google or microsoft.
>Assuming most such people would use LLMs even the more exotic ones, I'd say anywhere under 1000 people worldwide will be fair guess?
You're not even attempting AGI without datacenter gear. We're talking >20 H100s.
You dont need a massive datacenter, that's only needed if you have the masses of people querying you and running up your load.
Besides the giants like google or gpt. There's several groups who seem to be working on it. It's less clear if they've achieved it. Deepinfra, novitaai, cerebrus, parasail. They'd be crazy not to be attempting it, but they are also the groups who cant keep it quiet. They'd come out immediately.
>speaking of which: define AGI? It's a bold claim to say any company has it internally, and frankly given my definition of AGI if anyone has it they will definetly not be selling grok imagine for 99.5$ (autumn sale!), i can assure you that.
I think you have a misunderstanding of the business world. $3/hr rental prices on not-artificial general intelligence is available now. Many call centers worldwide are operated on this notion.
Just because you have general intelligence, doesnt mean you can do much of anything with it. It's general, it's not an expert in their field. It's not going to be great at the task you give it.
There's no 32B models that are close to AGI. but high reasoning giant models from the leading orgs absolutely can meet that general intelligence level.
>i can assure you that. AGI basically means: i don't care about sales, can i or should i go to Mars now since i can do it without a doubt?
No, that's super intelligence.
>ou'd be tormented by these kinds of questions even without ASI. I define ASI as something far more dangerous than a very powerful tool, an agent we cannot understand which will affect greatly the life of anyone/mostly anyone be it positively or negatively.
General intelligence helps you maintain your calendar; your minimum wage general labourer level intelligence is not at all difficult to achieve with LLMs.