It's a bit weird. He says there'll be a 'crack', which sounds pretty bad to me, but that we'll be fine.
> The JPMorgan Chase chief executive said on Friday that he had cautioned regulators: “You are going to see a crack in the bond market.” He added: “I’m telling you this is going to happen. And you are going to panic. I’m not going to panic. We’ll be fine.”
After scanning the transcript, I'm pretty sure he is referring to JP Morgan being fine, rather than the US economy or Americans in general.
but if you look at bond yields, there really isn't that much of a freakout
something like the "Big Beautiful Bill" is going to pass, so its not like the bond market is working in a vacuum
anecdotally, if the world didn't meltdown at the outrageous levels of ten, twenty, thirty trillion in debt...why would the world all of a sudden collapse at forty trillion in debt? if debt was a timebomb, it should have detonated decades ago
taylodl · 3d ago
Ships may list for a long time before they suddenly and dramatically sink.
oldpersonintx2 · 3d ago
if the USD sinks, the entire world sinks
backing off the USD is a hundred year project...you need an currency from a relatively open and law-bound Great Power that has demonstrated its staying power through conflict
there isn't anyone else who fits the bill...yet
taylodl · 3d ago
We were talking debt, not USD. The federal government does not have the power to create money, despite what people think, and so they can't print money to pay off their debts.
seanmcdirmid · 3d ago
> The federal government does not have the power to create money
The federal government choose not to have that power, they could technically take it back at any time with only political/market confidence consequences. With a crazy guy running things, anything is possible at this point.
taylodl · 3d ago
> with only political/market confidence consequences
That's one way of downplaying what happens next...
So why doesn’t he lower the interest rates? Money is fiat and the reserve requirement is 0.
seanmcdirmid · 3d ago
Jamie Dimon? He isn't the fed. Also, the interest rates set by the FED only apply to banks, not the yield of US treasuries, which is set by supply and demand for those treasuries.
> The JPMorgan Chase chief executive said on Friday that he had cautioned regulators: “You are going to see a crack in the bond market.” He added: “I’m telling you this is going to happen. And you are going to panic. I’m not going to panic. We’ll be fine.”
After scanning the transcript, I'm pretty sure he is referring to JP Morgan being fine, rather than the US economy or Americans in general.
Here's the whole interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NHLha3jG2g
something like the "Big Beautiful Bill" is going to pass, so its not like the bond market is working in a vacuum
anecdotally, if the world didn't meltdown at the outrageous levels of ten, twenty, thirty trillion in debt...why would the world all of a sudden collapse at forty trillion in debt? if debt was a timebomb, it should have detonated decades ago
backing off the USD is a hundred year project...you need an currency from a relatively open and law-bound Great Power that has demonstrated its staying power through conflict
there isn't anyone else who fits the bill...yet
The federal government choose not to have that power, they could technically take it back at any time with only political/market confidence consequences. With a crazy guy running things, anything is possible at this point.
That's one way of downplaying what happens next...