I don't think the real primary concern was prices - no one was actually going to buy the $3000 iPhone. The primary concern was ultimately "decontenting" America - fewer products on shelves. As if it would matter at this point, actual tariffed inventory was just about to start hitting shelves when the tariffs were paused.
The real metric to watch would be consumer spending and purchasing power. Heck, there's a risk of deflation as the economy scales back and consumers hold onto money waiting out the tariffs.
taylodl · 5h ago
Ironically, I think the tariffs is what led to inflation not being as bad as thought, but in a roundabout manner.
Because the majority of Americans understand how tariffs work, they expected and prepared for an economic slump - which is happening. Part of that preparation involved increasing savings, which means spending had to be lessened. That's a decline in demand. A decline in demand will lead to prices lowering, or in the short-term, prices staying steady. We're seeing prices staying relatively steady.
The issue is someone in this administration is going to get the wrong takeaway from these events.
duxup · 5h ago
I think this administration (well Trump because I'm not sure anyone else is calling the shots) already is inclined to point at the sky being blue and declaring "the experts were wrong see" and banning iced tea for whatever reason.
Amusingly / sadly it fits a weird almost meme like internet logic where folks post "I was told that..." and they insert some absurdity to make their point seem more reasonable.
I'm semi convinced this kinda twitter / social media thinking is actually how Trump thinks. Everything is a short blurb, even just an insult, no thinking beyond that.
tracker1 · 5h ago
I'm inclined to give the guy slightly more credit. I do think that he talks off the cuff more than most politicians we are used to. I also think that he works from strategy as opposed to pre-planning everything.
This is not that I agree with everything he does. I'm saying the guy is human, impulsive, narcissistic as well as capable of being charismatic and joking. The tariff bombs were likely about negotiation from strength from the beginning.
duxup · 4h ago
I think most everything is from the perspective of negotiating, but it's leverage to benefit himself. I think that's the only constant. I'm not inclined to buy into the "he talks off the cuff" much anymore. Big tech bad, until it does his bidding and so on is the pattern. America first, unless he gets a real-estate deal somewhere.
"Off the cuff" is just cover for dishonesty / not answering difficult to answer questions.
Then when he is honest about taking a bribe, or sexually assaulting somebody, “oh he is just talking”.
tracker1 · 5h ago
I'm not really surprised. Most things most people buy most often (food) is largely domestically produced. It also takes a while to fully affect supply chains and the announcements were well ahead of the actual tariffs. Beyond this, we trade with a lot of countries that aren't china, where 10% isn't that hard to split the difference between margins and consumer pricing.
Some products either are/were or just starting to see the effects. Another month or two and there might have been some interesting changes. Personally, I'm mixed as I've thought for a long time that tariffs would be better than income taxes. While a $3000 iPhone example may seem really bad, it's not something people should be buying every year even... Appliances used to measure their lives in decades and people expected that. Heavy tariffs may have reset those expectations a bit, and given room for more domestic options with time.
I was pretty sure it was mostly about taking an obscene position in order to negotiate to something fair. If you start off negotiating from a "fair" position, you will lose in the end.
Just my own take.
duxup · 5h ago
Based on logistics related data it seemed more like folks just didn't order ... so yeah you don't raise prices on stuff you didn't order right?
The real metric to watch would be consumer spending and purchasing power. Heck, there's a risk of deflation as the economy scales back and consumers hold onto money waiting out the tariffs.
Because the majority of Americans understand how tariffs work, they expected and prepared for an economic slump - which is happening. Part of that preparation involved increasing savings, which means spending had to be lessened. That's a decline in demand. A decline in demand will lead to prices lowering, or in the short-term, prices staying steady. We're seeing prices staying relatively steady.
The issue is someone in this administration is going to get the wrong takeaway from these events.
Amusingly / sadly it fits a weird almost meme like internet logic where folks post "I was told that..." and they insert some absurdity to make their point seem more reasonable.
I'm semi convinced this kinda twitter / social media thinking is actually how Trump thinks. Everything is a short blurb, even just an insult, no thinking beyond that.
This is not that I agree with everything he does. I'm saying the guy is human, impulsive, narcissistic as well as capable of being charismatic and joking. The tariff bombs were likely about negotiation from strength from the beginning.
"Off the cuff" is just cover for dishonesty / not answering difficult to answer questions.
Then when he is honest about taking a bribe, or sexually assaulting somebody, “oh he is just talking”.
Some products either are/were or just starting to see the effects. Another month or two and there might have been some interesting changes. Personally, I'm mixed as I've thought for a long time that tariffs would be better than income taxes. While a $3000 iPhone example may seem really bad, it's not something people should be buying every year even... Appliances used to measure their lives in decades and people expected that. Heavy tariffs may have reset those expectations a bit, and given room for more domestic options with time.
I was pretty sure it was mostly about taking an obscene position in order to negotiate to something fair. If you start off negotiating from a "fair" position, you will lose in the end.
Just my own take.